The Planning Fallacy

We cannot predict or plan for the future. So why do it?

Audio for NONFUTURE film by CINDY NGUYEN

Cindy talks about this in NONFUTURE. The basic gist is this:

If you realize you can no longer plan or predict the future, it almost feels like you have a “NON-FUTURE” — that a future doesn’t exist?

NONFUTURE film by CINDY NGUYEN

Humans cannot plan very well

Our bias:

We over-estimate our success, and we under-estimate our failures.

For example– most of us over-predict how much money we will earn from x, y, z. Also, most of us under-predict how bad things will be.

NONFUTURE

Planning for (beyond) the worst.

For example for COVID, I personally predict that the effects of COVID-19 will be A LOT LONGER than most people think. For example, people are waiting for it to be over in the next few weeks or months. I think that COVID-19 will last a few years. Perhaps the after-effects of COVID-19 (in terms of sociology of human social distancing and so forth) might least 5-6 years.

Signal vs Noise

Pluck today!

No faith in tomorrow. Only the moment and today!

ERIC KIM

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