THE STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE ACT (SBRA)
A moonshot plan to acquire 6,000,000 BTC and cement U.S. monetary leadership
Why this is a now-or-never move
- Record adoption & fresh highs. Spot crypto ETFs just posted record weekly inflows ($5.95B) as Bitcoin set a new all‑time high on Oct 5, 2025 ($126,223)—a sign of deepening institutional demand and mainstream acceptance. The U.S. led the flows.
- ETF scale = instant liquidity pipes. BlackRock’s IBIT alone is nearing $100B AUM and holds ~800k BTC, making it the world’s largest BTC fund and a ready conduit for large, efficient acquisitions.
- Legal rails are ready. The SEC now permits in‑kind creations and redemptions for crypto ETPs, enabling APs to deliver or receive bitcoin itself rather than cash—critical for state‑scale sourcing with minimal slippage.
- Policy foundation exists. A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was established by executive order in March 2025 and can be capitalized with government‑owned coins (seizures). This is the starting seed of a much larger reserve.
- Supply squeeze is mechanical. After the April 2024 halving, block rewards fell to 3.125 BTC (~450 BTC/day), throttling new issuance for the rest of the decade; total supply remains capped at 21M.
Bottom line: The market finally has compliant pipes, institutional demand, and a constricting new‑coin supply—conditions that strongly favor a decisive sovereign accumulation.
Vision & Targets
- Target holdings: 6,000,000 BTC—~28.6% of total eventual supply and ~30% of today’s circulating supply (circulating ≈ 19.93M BTC). This is monetary high ground that no rival can replicate.
- Timeframe: Aggressive 5‑to‑7 years, front‑loaded to exploit today’s liquidity and before more supply is locked in ETFs, corporates, and sovereigns.
- Strategic aim: Fortify dollar leadership by pairing the USD with the scarcest global digital reserve asset; deny adversaries a first‑mover advantage in the only monetary asset with a credible, immovable cap.
Execution Blueprint (shock‑and‑awe, then accumulate)
Phase 0 (Day 1–30):
Stand up the Sovereign Accumulation Facility (SAF) at Treasury/Fed with multi‑sig, air‑gapped custody and continuous independent audit. Seed the reserve by consolidating federal BTC already in government control (lawful seizures) into SAF wallets.
Phase 1 (Months 1–6): Rapid lock‑up without signaling
- In‑kind ETF redemptions via AP syndicate. Partner with APs of the largest spot ETFs (e.g., IBIT, FBTC) to redeem shares for BTC in‑kind. This taps deep ETF inventory quietly, reducing market footprint versus exchange buys.
- OTC block programs with top desks. Execute rolling, VWAP‑shaded OTC blocks with multiple Tier‑1 liquidity providers; stagger settlement to avoid prints.
- Miner offtake agreements (U.S. first). Pre‑purchase forward production from large miners (especially controllable‑load miners that stabilize grids) to corner a share of future issuance at a negotiated discount; encourage flare‑gas and curtailed‑renewable siting.
- HODL‑wave unlocks. Establish bilateral tenders with whales/treasuries for size (100k–500k BTC tranches) with tax incentives for sellers and optional buyback clauses.
Phase 2 (Months 6–36): Programmatic accumulation
- Daily DCA + volatility harvesting. Continuous DCA through dark pools & OTC, overlaid with collar strategies (selling OTM calls/put spreads) to harvest volatility and cheapen net cost.
- Sovereign call‑option overlay. Acquire multi‑year BTC calls (strike ladder) funded by coupon of “Bitcoin Reserve Bonds” to secure upside on coins not yet acquired.
- International coordination. Invite allies to co‑invest via swap lines (e.g., reserve‑to‑reserve BTC swaps), reducing FX reserve concentration risk system‑wide.
Phase 3 (Years 3–7): Refinement
- Lend against a slice; never sell. Establish a conservative sovereign‑only lending window (over‑collateralized) to monetize a fraction of the stack without rehypothecation risk.
- Domestic payments & innovation. Use the strategic reserve to underwrite public‑interest Bitcoin R&D (payments/Lightning, settlement experiments) while maintaining strict non‑interference with the network.
Balance‑Sheet Math (illustrative)
Current reference points
- BTC price (live): see chart above.
- Market cap & supply: Market cap ≈ $2.28T at ~19.93M BTC (CoinMarketCap live page).
Reserve sizing vs. GDP. Even at today’s price ($114k), 6M BTC equates to **$687B**, ~2.4% of U.S. GDP—material but tractable for a multi‑year sovereign program.
Three accumulation scenarios (rounded):
| Scenario | Assumed Avg Buy Price (WAAP) | Total Outlay | 2035 Valuation Cases | Mark‑to‑Market Gain |
| Conservative | $150k | $0.90T | $250k → $1.50T | +$0.60T |
| Base | $220k | $1.32T | $500k → $3.00T | +$1.68T |
| Squeeze | $300k | $1.80T | $1,000k → $6.00T | +$4.20T |
(Assumes full 6M BTC acquired; valuations are scenario‑analysis, not forecasts.)
Economic & Geopolitical Upside (bullish case)
- Dollar moat, not dollar replacement. Far from “replacing” the dollar, a Bitcoin reserve complements it—akin to gold in the 20th century—while stablecoin growth is actually increasing dollar demand abroad. Owning a decisive BTC stack aligns the U.S. with that digital dollar gravity.
- Pre‑empt China’s digital strategy. Beijing is explicitly pushing the e‑CNY and broader yuan internationalization. A U.S. BTC reserve is the superior answer: neutral, global, and outside any nation’s control—while we remain the liquidity and rule‑setting hub.
- Industry onshoring & energy arbitrage. Mining is increasingly cleaner (≈52% sustainable) and can soak up stranded gas/renewables while acting as controllable load for grids. The U.S. can lead in green mining, monetizing energy that would otherwise be wasted or flared.
Guardrails (to buy big and sleep well)
- Custody & audits. Multi‑sig, air‑gapped HSMs; quorum split among Treasury, the Fed, and DoD; rolling third‑party cryptographic proof‑of‑reserves.
- Market discipline. Hard rule: no discretionary selling. Liquidity needs are met via secured lending against a small slice, never by dumping spot.
- Regulatory neutrality. Keep Bitcoin credibly neutral; avoid protocol governance influence.
- Energy realism. Track and publish the reserve’s net carbon intensity, prioritize offtake from miners meeting stringent sustainability or methane‑mitigation criteria. (U.S. crypto mining uses ~0.6–2.3% of U.S. electricity—manageable with proper market design.)
Funding the buy (without fiscal drama)
- Bitcoin Reserve Bonds (30–50y). Ultra‑long bonds whose coupon is partially funded by option‑premium income from covered‑call programs on a small reserve sleeve.
- Seizures & asset swaps. Retain seized BTC (already authorized under the reserve EO), divest lower‑conviction non‑strategic assets at the margin.
- Reallocation from ETF exposures. U.S. sovereign entities can gradually redeem ETF shares for BTC in‑kind through APs to reduce friction and slippage while building a direct‑held reserve.
Implementation details (hardening the plan)
- Authorization: Congress codifies the SBRA, setting annual minimum acquisition bands and prohibiting sale without supermajority approval.
- Acquisition council: Treasury, Fed, DoD/CISA, and an independent risk chair with standing authority to engage APs/OTC desks and miners.
- Public cadence, private execution: Publish quarterly reserve deltas with cryptographic proofs; execute tactically and discreetly in between.
- Resilience drills: Simulate key‑loss/compromise recovery and black‑swan market events; maintain geographically distributed key shares.
- Allied coordination: Offer swap lines and BTC‑backed facilities to allies during liquidity stress—making U.S. the global BTC lender of last resort.
Risks (and how this plan eats them for breakfast)
- Volatility: We lean into it: DCA + option overlays + forward offtake = lower average cost and robust downside buffers.
- Liquidity impact: In‑kind ETF redemptions and OTC blocks reduce order‑book pressure; front‑load during risk‑off episodes to buy dips.
- Policy whiplash: Codify SBRA in statute; require supermajority to unwind.
- Energy & optics: Tie purchases to measurable sustainability milestones, showcase methane‑mitigation mining pilots and grid‑stability case studies.
Key facts at a glance (for decision‑makers)
- Circulating supply: ~19.93M BTC; hard cap 21M.
- U.S. seed coins: ~198k BTC in federal control (seizures)—reserve starting point.
- ETF firepower: U.S. spot BTC ETFs command ~$170B in assets and are built to support in‑kind flows—ideal sovereign sourcing rails.
Appendix A — Why a U.S. Bitcoin Reserve is dollar‑
positive
Stablecoins and ETFs—dominantly dollar‑denominated—are spreading the dollar’s reach, not shrinking it. As they proliferate, an American‑controlled trove of the underlying asset anchors the U.S. at the center of this new settlement fabric.
Appendix B — The halving math behind the squeeze
The 2024 halving cut issuance to ~450 BTC/day. That’s ~164k BTC/year of new supply… in a world where U.S. sovereign demand would run in the hundreds of thousands per year. The only economic equilibrium is higher prices or sellers stepping forward—both outcomes raise the strategic value of an early, large reserve.
One‑page decision
- Authorize SBRA now.
- Stand up SAF & start Phase 1 in 30 days.
- Aggressively pursue in‑kind ETF redemptions & miner offtakes.
- Aim for the first 500,000 BTC in 6 months—quietly, professionally, relentlessly.
Further reading & latest context
Notes on data sources used above: price/supply from CoinMarketCap live pages; ETF AUM and holdings from Financial Times and BlackRock; SEC policy on in‑kind creations/redemptions from Reuters and the SEC; executive order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve from the White House and Reuters; sustainable mining share from Cambridge Judge/CCAF; energy context from EIA; halving details from Reuters/Investopedia.
If you want, I can tailor this into a concise Hill‑ready bill summary and a briefing deck with the SBRA mechanics, timelines, and scenario charts.