I can’t write exactly in Eric Kim’s voice, but here’s a hard‑core, operator‑grade blueprint—numbers first, hype second—on how Singapore could acquire or control ≥ 1,000,000 BTC without blowing itself up or the market.
PRIME FACTS (WHAT WE’RE UP AGAINST)
- Total mined: ~19.9M BTC as of Aug 2025.
- New issuance: ~450 BTC/day (~164,250/yr) until 2028; then ~225/day; then ~112.5/day. Over 2024–2036, total issuance ≈ 1.15M BTC. (So mining alone won’t cut it fast enough.)
- On exchanges: ~2.3M BTC (≈11% of supply) — multi‑year lows. (Translation: float is thin.)
- In U.S. spot ETFs: ~1.29M BTC (and the SEC now allows in‑kind redemptions).
- Illiquid/HODLed: ~14.3M BTC+ classified as illiquid (70%+ of supply). (Coins aren’t moving.)
- Network muscle: hashrate ~900–950 EH/s and climbing. (Mining is brutally competitive.)
Bottom line: Realistic accessible float is a few million coins total. To get 1M BTC you need multiple acquisition pipes, world‑class custody, and years of disciplined execution.
THE 5‑PIPE STRATEGY (HOW YOU GET THERE)
1) Drain the ETFs (Legally & Quietly)
- Play: Accumulate U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF shares on equity markets, then redeem in‑kind via an Authorized Participant (AP) to receive underlying BTC into sovereign self‑custody.
- Why: You source coins from large custodians without blasting spot order books.
- Capacity: U.S. ETFs hold ~1.29M BTC today—realistic target to extract 300k–500k BTC over 24–36 months if you ladder purchases and redemptions across issuers.
2) Sovereign OTC Tenders (Whales, Corporates, Early Miners)
- Play: Launch a standing, premium OTC tender for blocks ≥1,000 BTC with sealed‑bid auctions run by tier‑1 custodians. Prioritize coins last active >1–5 years to coax long‑term holders.
- Why: Pull coins from deep cold storage with price certainty for sellers.
- Capacity: Between corporates, treasuries, and large holders, a realistic harvest is 200k–300k BTC if you pay a fair premium and guarantee same‑day settlement. (Institutions + corporates as a group control a massive chunk of supply.)
3) Own the Spigot (Mining + Offtake)
- Play A: Equity + offtake. Take control stakes in top miners and pools; sign multi‑year BTC offtake contracts at a discount to TWAP.
- Play B: Sovereign Mining Co. Finance renewable/nuclear sites abroad (hydro, geothermal, SMRs). Receive BTC output directly to sovereign vaults.
- Why: Secures primary issuance for a decade.
- Capacity: 2024–2036 issuance ≈ 1.15M BTC; capturing 25–30% via offtake + self‑mine yields ~290k–345k BTC over 12 years (front‑loaded before the 2028 halving).
4) Government & Insolvency Pipelines (Auctions, Court Sales)
- Play: Pre‑clear MOUs with agencies (U.S., U.K., EU members, etc.) to be a preferred block buyer at reference price ± premium during seizure disposals or bankruptcy liquidations, settling directly to your multisig.
- Why: Occasional big blocks at institutional terms.
- Capacity: Lumpy, but 50k–100k BTC over time is realistic given periodic seizures/auctions. (E.g., U.K. seizure cases; periodic European/German disposals; U.S. policy has fluctuated.)
5) “BitBonds” Swap Program (Pull from HODLers Without Dumping)
- Play: Issue SGD sovereign “BitBonds” (10‑year, low‑coupon) payable in BTC or SGD at maturity. Accept BTC principal today; pay holders a sovereign spread and an embedded BTC option at maturity.
- Why: Converts HODLers into yield‑seeking counterparties without forcing them to sell on exchanges.
- Capacity: With the right yield + tax treatment, this can pull 100k–200k BTC from private balance sheets over time. (The “BitBonds” concept is already floating in U.S. policy circles.)
Add them up (upper‑mid targets):
ETFs 400k + OTC 250k + Mining 320k + Gov/insolvency 75k + BitBonds 150k ≈ 1.2M BTC potential over a multi‑year program.
EXECUTION BLUEPRINT (NO HERO TRADES)
Mandate: “Acquire and self‑custody 1,000,000 BTC over 5–10 years with zero key incidents.”
Guardrails: No leverage. No rehypothecation. No lending. Allocation corridor & risk budget hard‑coded.
Program Mechanics
- TWAP/DCA core: Programmatic buys across venues; auto‑pause if slippage >10 bps.
- ETF path: Work through an AP you control; stagger in‑kind redemptions across issuers to avoid telegraphing intent.
- OTC path: Sealed‑bid windows monthly; KYC/chain‑analytics pre‑clear; settle to warm vault → deep cold within 24h.
- Mining path: Acquire/finance hashrate; offtake pegs to issuance bands. Track network hashrate & difficulty weekly (currently ~900+ EH/s).
- Auctions path: Standing purchase agreements drafted in advance with judiciary & asset‑forfeiture units.
- BitBonds path: List on SGX; custody inbound coins directly; publish on‑chain addresses quarterly.
Custody & Governance (non‑negotiable)
- 3‑of‑5 taproot multisig, signers split across independent legal entities and jurisdictions; time‑locked large spends; duress flows.
- Quarterly independent audits + public addresses for reserve attestations.
- Liquidity buffer: 24 months of fiat/gold to avoid forced BTC sales. (Hedge tails with long‑dated protective puts only; never short spot.)
SUPPLY MAP (WHY THIS IS HARD—AND DOABLE)
- Exchanges: ~2.3M BTC. This is the most immediately tappable—but drains quickly and moves price.
- U.S. ETFs: ~1.29M BTC. In‑kind redemptions unlock a clean pipe if you first accumulate shares.
- Illiquid/HODLed: 14M+ BTC now classed as illiquid. A chunk will surface if you offer premium, certainty, and sovereign‑grade settlement.
- New issuance: ~164k BTC/yr → 82k post‑2028 → 41k post‑2032. Capture flow, not just stock.
Translation: You can get to 1M—but only by combining ETF redemptions + OTC block deals + mining flow + special situations. Any attempt to brute‑force spot markets will light the price on fire.
COST REALITY (ORDER‑OF‑MAGNITUDE)
If VWAP during accumulation averages $115k–$160k (and likely trends higher as you buy), 1,000,000 BTC implies $115B–$160B notional before premiums, hedges, and operations. (BTC hit a new ATH in July 2025; liquidity is thinner than it looks.)
RISK & COMPLIANCE (BE BORING, BE INVINCIBLE)
- Market conduct: No spoofing, no wash trading, no manipulation. Use programmatic, pre‑disclosed frameworks and reputable counterparties.
- Sanctions/AML: End‑to‑end chain analytics and provenance proofs on every inbound UTXO.
- Policy continuity: Publish the mandate and corridor; changes require supermajority approval.
- Comms: “Small relative allocation; long horizon; extreme security.” (Judge us by operational excellence, not last week’s price.)
MILESTONES (WHAT GOOD LOOKS LIKE)
- Year 1: 150k–200k BTC secured (primarily ETFs + OTC), zero custody incidents, 4/4 clean audits.
- Year 3: 500k+ BTC secured; mining/Offtake delivering ~20–30% of yearly issuance.
- Year 5–7: Cross 1,000,000 BTC with diversified sources; address set published; Singapore recognized as the sovereign benchmark for digital‑asset operations.
TL;DR (THE MOVE)
- Use in‑kind ETF redemptions to pull hundreds of thousands of BTC off custodians into your vaults—quietly.
- Run premium OTC tenders to unlock HODLer and corporate supply—respect their constraints, pay for certainty.
- Own the spigot via mining equity + offtake—secure flow for a decade.
- Pre‑wire auctions to catch seized/bankruptcy blocks.
- Launch BitBonds to attract coins without forcing market sales. (A policy idea already in play elsewhere.)
Do it small. Do it steady. Do it flawlessly.
Roar softly. Carry cold storage.