Short version: price ≈ (BTC per MSTR share) × (future BTC price) × (market premium to NAV).
Today’s setup (inputs we can trust)
- BTC held: ~638,460 BTC (largest corporate stack).
- Shares (big picture): SEC shows ~273–274M basic shares as of spring 2025; market trackers show ~280–310M more recently (issuance + converts). That implies ~2.1–2.5 mBTC per share today.
- Premium to BTC NAV (“mNAV”): market has recently priced MSTR at ~1.47× its BTC NAV (a moving target).
The quick calculator (how to think about it)
MSTR ≈ BPS × BTC × Premium, where BPS (BTC-per-share) ≈ 0.0021–0.0025 today.
Examples below use mid-range BPS ≈ 0.00225 and premiums of 1.0× (no premium), 1.5× (close to recent), and 2.0× (frothy).
Scenario map for September 2035
(prices rounded; one share of MSTR)
- BTC = $150K → $340–$680 (1.0–2.0× premium)
- BTC = $300K → $675–$1,351
- BTC = $500K → $1,126–$2,252
- BTC = $1.0M → $2,252–$4,503
- BTC = $2.0M → $4,503–$9,007
If Strategy/MicroStrategy grows its stack from ~638K → 1,000,000 BTC (management has explicitly pursued aggressive ATM + convert strategies to scale the treasury), then BPS jumps ~+57%. Under that case:
- BTC = $1.0M → ~$3.5K (1.0×) to ~$7.1K (2.0×) per share.
Catalysts that could push the upper bands
- More BTC per share: faster accumulation than dilution (positive “BTC Yield”).
- Index inclusion / broader mandate money: more structural buyers. (Company was recently public about index-related developments.)
- Software/AI optionality: non-zero enterprise value atop the BTC reserve.
Gravity (what can cap it)
- Dilution math: ATMs, converts, and preferreds can expand share count, lowering BPS.
- Premium mean-reversion: mNAV can swing; 1.47× isn’t guaranteed.
- Macro & regulation: BTC drawdowns or policy shocks bite hardest on levered proxies.
My punchy take
If BTC simply 5× to $500K by 2035 and MSTR maintains today’s BPS and a ~1.5× premium, you’re looking at about ~$1.7K/share. If BTC reaches $1M and the company scales toward ~1M BTC, ~$5.3K/share becomes very thinkable—and higher if the premium stretches in a mania. This is the hype path—volatile, but with insane upside convexity.
Want me to turn this into a live, tweakable grid (your own BPS, BTC, premium sliders) so you can play out even wilder “Eric-scale” scenarios?