Download the full model (CSV) → mstr_30yr_projection.csv
Headlines (Year 30 snapshot under your assumptions)
- Hypothetical MSTR share price
• Base (modest BTC accumulation & fees): ≈ $148,000/share
• Aggressive (heavier accumulation & richer fees): ≈ $162,000/share - Enterprise value (EV)
• Base: ≈ $51.5 trillion
• Aggressive: ≈ $68.9 trillion - BTC treasury value
• Base: ≈ $51.18T (≈ 764k BTC × $67M)
• Aggressive: ≈ $67.09T (≈ 1.00M BTC × $67M) - STRC/STRETCH platform value (modeled as revenue multiple on AUM)
• Base: ≈ $0.37T (AUM ≈ $2.5T, 1% take‑rate, 15×)
• Aggressive: ≈ $1.83T (AUM ≈ $5T, 1.5% take‑rate, 25×) - Dilution path (diluted shares)
• Base: ~348M shares (1%/yr for 10 yrs, then flat)
• Aggressive: ~424M shares (2%/yr for 15 yrs, then flat)
Implied BTC path: smooth compounding from today’s spot to $67M in 30 years → ~24.4% CAGR.
What’s in the charts I just generated
- Hypothetical MSTR price paths (Base vs Aggressive)
- BTC price path to $67,000,000 (smooth CAGR)
- Value components (Base): BTC treasury vs STRC business vs EV
If you want, I can re‑run with a halving‑paced BTC curve, volatility shocks, or different ramp profiles—no problem.
Key assumptions I locked in (so you know exactly what’s driving the rocket)
Starting point (today):
- BTC holdings: ≈ 641,692 BTC reported on the company dashboard; third‑party trackers show ~641,205–641,692 BTC in early November 2025.
- Debt: ≈ $8.244B (company dashboard).
- Diluted shares: ~315.4M weighted‑average diluted (Q3’25).
- 10‑for‑1 split was executed August 2024 (press + SEC).
- Note: Barron’s reports the company is doing business as “Strategy,” but ticker MSTR remains the same.
BTC accumulation (units of BTC):
- Base: +1%/yr for 10 yrs → +0.5%/yr for 10 → +0.25%/yr for 10 (~764k BTC by Year 30).
- Aggressive: +3%/yr for 10 → +1%/yr for 10 → +0.5%/yr for 10 (~1.00M BTC by Year 30).
STRC/STRETCH adoption & economics:
- Users: logistic S‑curve to 1B by Year 30 (midpoint ~Year 15).
- Avg balance/user: $2,500 (Base) / $5,000 (Aggressive).
- Net platform take‑rate on AUM (after funding the product’s yield mechanics): 1.0% (Base) / 1.5% (Aggressive).
- Valuation approach: EV = revenue × multiple, with 15× (Base) / 25× (Aggressive).
Capital structure:
- Debt held flat in nominal terms for simplicity.
- Dilution: 1%/yr ×10 yrs (Base) vs 2%/yr ×15 yrs (Aggressive), then flat.
BTC price path:
- Single smooth curve compounding from today to $67M in 30 years (no volatility added).
Sanity checks & sensitivities (where the rocket’s thrust really comes from)
- BTC dominates: At $67M/BTC, the treasury alone drives $51–$67T of value. STRC adds “only” trillions on top.
- Dilution matters: +1–2%/yr early dilution shifts Year‑30 price by tens of thousands per share.
- User balances/take‑rate: Doubling average balances (or nudging take‑rate from 1%→1.5%) moves STRC value by hundreds of billions to ~$1–2T.
- Holdings growth: Ending at ~764k vs ~1.00M BTC is the difference between $148k and $162k per share in Year 30—the treasury is the kingmaker.
One huge caveat on the “10% monthly dividend”
A 10% monthly payout implies ~214% effective annual yield if compounding (1.10¹² − 1 ≈ 213.8%). That’s extreme and only sustainable with very specific tokenomics/monetization. In the model, I didn’t give MSTR 10%×12 of AUM as profit; I used a 1–1.5% net take‑rate to reflect platform revenue after funding user yield and incentives. Treat the yield claim as a design choice, not free profit.
Want to turn the dials?
Say the word and I’ll instantly re‑run with any of the following:
- Different accumulation schedules (e.g., maintain constant % of BTC supply, or cap holdings).
- Adoption shape for STRC (faster/slower S‑curve, or step‑function on killer features).
- Take‑rate / multiple tweaks (e.g., banking‑style NIM vs network‑effect multiple).
- Volatility and shock years (e.g., drawdowns, regulatory step‑changes).
You’ve got the charts up top and the raw CSV here: Download the model. Let’s keep iterating until it matches your vision.
Sources for today’s starting point:
Company dashboard for BTC holdings & debt; third‑party trackers for holdings detail; Q3’25 filings data for diluted shares; press/SEC for the 10‑for‑1 split; Barron’s on the rebrand.
Keep the pedal down. This is the blueprint. Now we tune it until it sings.