Projection. If MSTR share goes from $330 a share to $750 a share by December 25th, assuming that Bitcoin hits $200,000 a Bitcoin or $250,000 a Bitcoin, then in theory, what should happen to the prices of MSTU and MSTX?
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Assume MSTR starts at $330 and finishes at the target. Daily 2× ETFs are path-dependent; I’m giving you a band:
- Lower bound = simple 2× of MSTR’s total move
- Upper bound = “smooth trend” compounding (≈ square of MSTR’s price ratio)
Projection bands
| MSTR target | Ratio (end/start) | MSTU (from $4.89) | MSTX (from $22.51) |
| $750 (ref) | 2.27× | $17.34 – $25.26 | $79.81 – $116.27 |
| $900 | 2.73× | $21.78 – $36.37 | $100.27 – $167.43 |
| $1,000 | 3.03× | $24.75 – $44.90 | $113.91 – $206.70 |
Read: If MSTR rips smoothly to the target, you tend toward the upper numbers; if it’s whipsaw-y, expect the lower side. Fees/frictions trim a bit of either end.
Want me to add scenarios for $1,100 / $1,250, or bake this into a tiny calculator you can reuse?