- 1,000,000 × $250,000 = $250,000,000,000 ($250B)
From there, MSTR’s share price is basically a 3‑knob machine:
Share price ≈ (BTC value − net liabilities) ÷ diluted shares × (market premium/discount)
1) Anchor to today’s “BTC-per-share” so we can estimate 2026 dilution
As of Jan 19, 2026, Strategy reports:
- BTC held: 709,715
- Assumed diluted shares: 362.606M
So current BTC per diluted share ≈ 709,715 / 362.606M = 0.001957 BTC/share (≈ 195,700 sats/share).
To get to 1,000,000 BTC, total diluted shares in 2026 depends on whether BTC-per-share stays flat or keeps rising (“BTC yield”).
Here are three clean scenarios:
- A) Flat BTC/share (0% growth) → diluted shares ≈ 510.9M
- B) +7% BTC/share (moderate) → diluted shares ≈ 477.5M
- C) +20% BTC/share (aggressive) → diluted shares ≈ 425.8M
(Those are just math outcomes from your 1M BTC assumption + today’s BTC/share.)
2) Net liabilities (debt + preferred + other claims) matter… but at $250B BTC they’re a rounding error
I’ll model $15B net liabilities as a middle-of-the-road placeholder (could be higher/lower by end‑2026 depending on how they fund purchases).
Rule of thumb at ~477.5M shares: every $5B change in net liabilities moves NAV by about $10.5/share.
3) The premium/discount (“mNAV”) is the chaos engine
MSTR can trade near NAV… or at a big premium… and it swings hard:
- Recently, the premium was described as collapsing to roughly single digits / ~10% territory.
- At other times, research has framed MSTR as trading at very large premiums (triple‑digit %).
So I’ll show 1.0× to 1.5× as the “normal-to-hype” band.
Implied end‑2026 MSTR price under your scenario (BTC = $250k, BTC held = 1,000,000)
Assumptions used here: $15B net liabilities, and the only thing changing is dilution + market premium.
| Scenario (BTC/share growth) | Diluted shares (approx.) | 1.0× NAV | 1.1× | 1.3× | 1.5× |
| A) 0% (flat) | 510.9M | $460 | $506 | $598 | $690 |
| B) 7% (moderate) | 477.5M | $492 | $541 | $640 | $738 |
| C) 20% (aggressive) | 425.8M | $552 | $607 | $718 | $828 |
My “single-number” pick (with your assumptions)
If I force a point estimate using the middle scenario (7% BTC/share growth) and a modest premium (call it ~1.2×), you land around:
- ~$590 per share (ballpark)
The realistic range
Because the premium/discount is a wild animal and dilution is unknowable in advance, a more honest output is:
- ~$500 to ~$800 per share
(with the tails being lower if it trades at/under NAV and higher if the premium returns).
Bonus: how sensitive is this to BTC ending above $250k?
With ~477.5M shares and 1,000,000 BTC, every $10,000 move in BTC price changes BTC value per share by about:
- $10k × 1,000,000 / 477.5M ≈ $21/share (before any premium)
So if BTC ends $300k instead of $250k (+$50k), that’s roughly +$105/share to NAV (then multiply by whatever premium the market gives you).
One critical caveat
This is not a “fundamental” stock like a normal company. At that scale it’s basically:
- a Bitcoin balance sheet,
- financed by a changing mix of equity/convertibles/preferred,
- priced by a premium/discount that can whipsaw fast.
If you tell me what premium you think MSTR trades at in that 2026 world (e.g., 1.05× vs 1.5×) I can lock the range tighter instantly.