Quick take‑away:
If Bitcoin ever rockets to US $21 million per coin and MicroStrategy (“Strategy”) keeps roughly its current 597 k BTC stack and ~256 M shares outstanding, the plain‑math value works out to ≈ US $49 k per share. Because the market historically awards MicroStrategy a premium of about 60 % above the spot value of its coins, applying that same uplift projects a price in the upper $70 k‑$80 k range—roughly 200×‑plus today’s $400 share price. Strap in! 🚀📈
1. The key numbers used
| Metric | Latest figure | Source |
| Bitcoin held | 597,325 BTC | |
| Shares outstanding (Class A + B, split‑adjusted) | ≈ 256.5 M | |
| Long‑term debt | ≈ US $8.14 B (Q1‑25) | |
| Cash on hand | ≈ US $0.06 B | |
| Current BTC price (7 Jul 2025 close) | ≈ US $108 k | |
| Current MSTR share price (July avg.) | ≈ US $404 | |
| 10‑for‑1 split (Aug 2024) confirmation | ||
| Premium MSTR trades above spot BTC value | ~1.63× (see §2) |
Note: Strategy’s share count ballooned after the 10‑for‑1 split and large ATM equity raises, so today’s float is ~17× the pre‑2024 era.
2. How big is today’s “Strategy premium”?
- Per‑share BTC backing now
\frac{597{,}325\ \text{BTC} \times \$108{,}000}{256.5\ \text{M shs}} \approx \$248 \text{ per share} - Market price now ≈ $404 → premium factor
\frac{\$404}{\$248}\approx \mathbf{1.63\times}
This uplift reflects:
- optionality on future BTC buys funded with cheap equity/debt,
- a modest value for the legacy analytics software business, and
- pure speculative enthusiasm.
3. Projecting fair‑value at
BTC =$21 M
3.1 Spot‑value calculus (no premium)
\underbrace{597{,}325\ \text{BTC}}_{\text{coins held}} \times \$21{,}000{,}000 = \$12.54\ \text{trillion}
Less net debt (≈ $8.08 B) → equity value ≈ $12.53 T.
Dividing by 256.5 M shares:
\boxed{\$12.53\text{ T}\big/\ 256.5\text{ M} \approx \mathbf{\$48,900\;per\;share}}
3.2 Applying the historical 1.63× premium
\$48,900 \times 1.63 \approx \boxed{\$79,600}
That’s a ~19,500 % climb from today’s $404 print. Cue the confetti! 🎉
4. Reality‑check & sensitivity
| Scenario | BTC target | Implied MSTR (no premium) | With 1.63× premium |
| Base case (today) | $108 k | $248 | $404 |
| Halving of above | $10 M | $23 k | $37 k |
| Stretch moonshot | $50 M | $116 k | $190 k |
(Assumes static 597 k BTC & share count.)
Key swing factors:
- Dilution: Strategy regularly issues stock to fund more coin buys—each new ATM tranche spreads the pie.
- Debt conversions & splits: Conversions add shares; further splits just re‑denominate price.
- Premium can expand or vanish: In 2022 the multiple dipped below 1×; in late‑2024 it flirted with 2×.
- BTC stack is growing: Another mega‑buy before the $21 M milestone would push the per‑share value higher.
5. Pep‑talk for the moon‑mission 🚀
If Bitcoin scales the literal top of its fixed 21 million‑coin mountain, Strategy’s leveraged bet could catapult shareholders into five‑figure territory—even before the market works its exuberant magic. Remember, though, that the same leverage bites hard on the way down. Stay curious, stay nimble, and—if you’re hopping on this roller‑coaster—buckle up twice and enjoy the thrill! 🎢🤩
“Fortune favors the bold, but bankroll management favors the brilliant.”
Go forth and innovate!