Value of Bitcoin Holdings at $250,000 per BTC

MicroStrategy (now rebranded as “Strategy Inc.”) is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. As of mid-December 2025, the company reported holding approximately 671,268 bitcoins acquired at an aggregate cost of ~$50.33 billion . By early January 2026, its holdings had grown further (about 673,783 BTC in total) . At a Bitcoin price of $250,000, the market value of these holdings would be enormous – on the order of $167–$168 billion (671,000+ BTC × $250,000 each). This represents a massive appreciation from the current carrying value (for reference, at ~$110,600 per BTC in October 2025, the BTC were worth ~$70.9 billion ). In summary:

  • BTC Holdings: ~673,000 BTC (latest publicly reported figure) .
  • Assumed BTC Price: $250,000 per coin (hypothetical scenario).
  • Total BTC Value: ~$168 billion (673k × $250k).

This Bitcoin asset value would dwarf the size of MicroStrategy’s other assets and operations, making up the bulk of the company’s valuation in this scenario.

Enterprise Value and Net Asset Value Adjustments

While Bitcoin dominates MicroStrategy’s balance sheet, we must consider other assets and the core business, as well as liabilities, to estimate net equity value per share:

  • Cash and USD Reserves: In late 2025 the company established a USD Reserve (cash treasury) of $1.44 billion , and as of January 4, 2026 this reserve had grown to $2.25 billion . This cash is held to cover interest on debt and preferred dividends, but it is an asset that adds to enterprise value. We include it as part of total assets available to shareholders.
  • Software Business Value: MicroStrategy’s legacy business – enterprise analytics software – contributes some value. For Q3 2025, it had ~$128.7 million in revenue (10.9% YoY growth) and returned to modest profitability. Even if we generously value this software segment at, say, 2–4× annual sales, it would be on the order of $1–2 billion. This is relatively minor (~1% of the Bitcoin holdings’ value at $250k/BTC). Thus, the enterprise value is overwhelmingly driven by the Bitcoin reserves, with the software business adding only a small incremental value.
  • Total Assets (Market Value): Summing the Bitcoin holdings (~$168B) and cash ($2.25B), plus a token value for the software operations (~$1–2B), we get on the order of $170+ billion in total asset value for the enterprise at a $250k BTC price.

From this, we must subtract liabilities (primarily debt) to arrive at net asset value for common shareholders:

  • Debt: MicroStrategy has accumulated substantial debt to finance Bitcoin purchases. As of late 2025, it has approximately $8.2 billion in outstanding convertible senior notes (spread across six issues maturing ~2028–2032, with a low average coupon ~0.4%) . These are mostly zero or low-interest convertible bonds issued in 2020–2025 to raise cash for buying BTC. (Notably, the company redeemed a prior $500M 6.125% bond in 2024 by refinancing into new convertibles .) For our scenario, we assume no significant change in debt – no new borrowing or repayment beyond what’s known, so roughly $8.2B of debt remains on the balance sheet.
  • Preferred Equity: In 2025 the company also issued various perpetual preferred stocks (e.g. series STRK, STRD, etc.) to raise capital . These act somewhat like debt (with required dividend payments). However, proceeds from preferred stock sales were generally used to buy more Bitcoin or bolster the USD reserve, so their net effect is reflected in the assets above. For simplicity, we treat these preferreds as part of the capital structure that have claims senior to common stock, but since the scenario assumes no new changes, we focus on the common equity value after meeting debt obligations.

Taking enterprise value ≈ $170B (mainly BTC + cash) and subtracting debt ~$8.2B, the net asset value attributable to common shareholders is on the order of $162 billion (i.e. $170B assets minus liabilities). This essentially assumes the Bitcoin could be liquidated at market price and used to pay off all debt, leaving ~$162B in equity value. (If one assigns a small value to the ongoing software business, it would add a bit more, but as noted this is marginal in scale compared to $168B of BTC holdings.)

It’s worth noting that in the market, MicroStrategy’s stock sometimes trades at a slight discount or premium to its underlying Bitcoin NAV due to factors like corporate overhead, execution risk, or the “scarcity premium” of a Bitcoin proxy. For instance, with Bitcoin around $90k in early 2026, MSTR’s enterprise value was about 96.6% of its BTC holdings’ value (i.e. a slight discount after accounting for debt). For our valuation, we will assume the market values the company approximately at NAV in a $250k/BTC scenario (i.e. neither a large premium nor discount), given the improved balance sheet strength such a high BTC price would confer.

Debt and Leverage Considerations

MicroStrategy’s use of leverage means its equity value is highly sensitive to Bitcoin’s price. Leverage amplifies returns: if BTC rises, the debt (fixed in dollar terms) magnifies the increase in net equity. In our scenario, Bitcoin’s price (~3× higher than recent ~$80–90k levels in late 2025) would more than triple the value of MSTR’s assets, while debt stays fixed at ~$8.2B. This yields a disproportionately large gain in equity value (greater than 3×). However, leverage is a double-edged sword; the company’s filings emphasize that its earnings and book value are extremely sensitive to Bitcoin’s price movements .

Key points on debt in this $250k BTC scenario:

  • Convertible Notes: Most of the $8.2B debt is in convertible bonds with strike prices ranging from about ~$149 to ~$672 per MSTR share (post-2024 split) . At a very high share price (which would accompany $250k BTC), many of these notes would likely convert to equity rather than requiring cash repayment. For example, notes convertible at $183, $232, $433, etc. per share would all be deep in the money if MSTR stock is well into the hundreds of dollars. Conversion would eliminate those debt obligations at maturity (strengthening the balance sheet) but also dilute the share count. In our analysis we assume no new equity issuance beyond what’s already outstanding (per the prompt), so we treat the debt at face value and use the current share count. We will, however, note the share count effect separately in the next section.
  • Interest and Carry: The burden of servicing this debt is relatively low – the average coupon is under 0.5%, and some notes are 0% . Annual interest expense on $8.2B would be on the order of only ~$35 million. The company’s new cash reserve of $2.25B is more than sufficient to cover interest and preferred dividends for multiple years . Thus, in a high-BTC scenario, debt service is not a strain – in fact, MicroStrategy’s strategy of issuing debt at low rates to buy BTC would be vindicated by a huge BTC price increase. The debt-to-assets ratio would drop dramatically (with ~$170B in assets vs $8B debt, debt would be under 5% of assets). This improved leverage ratio could even support refinancing or paying down debt if desired (the company might choose to sell a small portion of BTC or use excess cash flows to retire debt).
  • Risk: With Bitcoin at $250k, MicroStrategy’s equity would be very robust relative to debt (over $160B in cushion). The main risk – a BTC price collapse – is outside our scenario, but it’s worth noting that the flip side of leverage is downside risk. (For context, in late 2025 when BTC pulled back below $100k, MSTR had to revise earnings guidance and recorded large unrealized losses , illustrating the volatility investors endure.) In a sustained $250k BTC environment, however, MicroStrategy’s debt looks very manageable, and the company could even deleverage opportunistically.

In summary, debt provides a leverage boost to the share price in this scenario: shareholders reap the benefit of ~$168B in BTC assets with only ~$8B owed to creditors. Next, we translate this net asset value into a per-share price.

Estimated Share Price Based on Current Shares Outstanding

Finally, we estimate the per-share equity value under these assumptions. We take the net asset value (Bitcoin value + cash – debt, as discussed above) and divide by the number of shares outstanding. Key inputs:

  • Net Equity Value (Assets – Liabilities): Approximately $162 billion. This comes from ~$168B in BTC holdings at $250k/BTC plus ~$2.25B cash, minus ~$8.2B debt. (For a round-number sanity check: if BTC value is $168B and other net assets roughly balance other minor liabilities, $162B net is reasonable.)
  • Shares Outstanding: ~312 million common shares. This includes all Class A and Class B shares currently issued (MicroStrategy underwent a 10-for-1 stock split in August 2024) . As of Dec 31, 2025 there were about 292.4M Class A and 19.64M Class B shares, totaling ~312M basic shares . We assume no further equity issuance or conversion (i.e. we use the current share count).

Estimated Share Price = Net Equity ÷ Shares ≈ $520 per share.

  • Calculation: ~$162 billion in net assets divided by ~312 million shares gives roughly $520 per share. In other words, if Bitcoin hits $250k and MicroStrategy’s holdings are worth ~$168B, the intrinsic value per share would be on the order of five hundred dollars (considering the debt and current share count) . This is a dramatic increase from recent trading levels – for perspective, MSTR was around ~$140–$150/share (post-split) when BTC was near $90k .

It’s important to note that this $520 is a fundamental estimate assuming the market prices MSTR at roughly the value of its BTC minus debt. Actual market pricing could differ: if investors apply a discount (for corporate expenses or illiquidity of the holdings), the stock might trade lower than NAV; conversely, in a crypto bull run, MSTR might command a premium as a convenient Bitcoin proxy. For example, at times investors have paid 10–20% premiums over NAV for MSTR , whereas during downturns it has traded at a discount. Thus, one could envision a range – perhaps $400 to $600+ per share – depending on market sentiment at $250k BTC. But approximately $500+/share is a reasonable base-case derived from the company’s current Bitcoin stake and financial structure.

Breakdown Summary: For clarity, here is the valuation breakdown at $250k BTC, using the latest available figures:

  • Bitcoin Holdings (@ $250k) – ~$168.4 billion asset value 
  • Plus: Cash Reserve and Other Assets – ~$2.3 billion (USD reserve as of Jan 2026) + minor goodwill/software value
  • = Total Assets: ≈ $170–171B (market value)
  • Less: Debt (convertible notes) – ~$8.2 billion liability 
  • = Net Assets (Equity Value) – ~$162 billion attributable to shareholders
  • Shares Outstanding (basic) – ~312 million shares 
  • Derived Share Price ≈ $520 per share (162,000 / 312 ≈ 519.2)

All else equal, MicroStrategy’s stock could be expected to trade on the order of $500 per share under these conditions. This reflects the enormous appreciation of its Bitcoin treasury, partially offset by its debt, and assumes no further dilution. The company would effectively be a ~$160+ billion market cap entity (making it one of the larger companies in the market) driven by its Bitcoin holdings. Investors in MSTR at that point would be primarily exposing themselves to Bitcoin’s value, with each share backed by roughly 0.00215 BTC (since 673k BTC / 312M shares ≈ 0.002158 BTC per share, and 0.002158 * $250k = ~$539, slightly above our $520 due to the debt subtraction).

Sources: The figures above are based on MicroStrategy’s publicly reported Bitcoin holdings and financials. For instance, as of Dec 14, 2025 the firm held ~671,268 BTC , and it has raised debt via convertible bonds totaling roughly $8+ billion to fund these purchases. The share count (~312 million) is drawn from the company’s reported outstanding shares post-split . All calculations assume no additional BTC buys or share issuances beyond those disclosures. The end result is an illustrative NAV-based valuation of MSTR stock if Bitcoin were to reach $250k, providing a clear picture of how MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin-centric strategy could translate into shareholder value under bullish conditions.