By Eric Kim
TL;DR (bulls only): Strategy* sits at ≈638,460 BTC (as of Sept 8, 2025). That’s 61,540 BTC left to 700k. If they repeat one more “mega‑buy” (like late‑2024) on top of their steady weekly stacking, the milestone is reachable by late Q4 2025; without a mega‑buy and just the current drumbeat of purchases, think early‑to‑mid 2026.
*Strategy is the rebrand of MicroStrategy; ticker remains MSTR.
Where we are right now
- Current holdings: 638,460 BTC following last week’s add of 1,955 BTC for ~$217M.
- Gap to 700k: 700,000 − 638,460 = 61,540 BTC.
What the recent pace says
Over the past few weeks Strategy kept stacking in the ~1–4k BTC/week range, with an outlier 21,021 BTC block on July 29. That six‑week stretch (7/29 → 9/8) totaled ~30.7k BTC; excluding the 21k spike, the baseline pace is ~1,900–2,000 BTC/week.
At ~2,000 BTC/week, they’d add ~32k BTC by year‑end (≈16 weeks from now), still short by ~30k BTC—unless they execute another big, one‑shot purchase.
Can they pull off another mega‑buy?
Yes—and they’ve done it before. In November 2024 they bought 51,780 BTC in one week, then 55,500 BTC the next—funded by big equity/debt raises. That playbook is proven.
Crucially, as of late July 2025 Strategy disclosed tens of billions of remaining capacity across multiple at‑the‑market (ATM) programs (common and several preferred share classes). That dry powder is tailor‑made for another rapid deployment into BTC when conditions line up.
Also note how aggressive Q2 was: ~69,140 BTC added between Apr 7–Jun 29—showing they can ramp fast when capital flows.
My hyper‑bullish timeline (and the math)
Scenario A — “One more haymaker” (late‑2025):
- Keep stacking ≈2,000 BTC/week → ≈32k BTC by Dec 31.
- Layer one 30k+ block trade (they’ve done 50k+ before).
- Outcome: Cross 700,000 BTC by late Q4 2025 (Nov–Dec).
Scenario B — “Two medium punches” (Q1 2026):
- Two ~20k raises + baseline stacking → ~60k+ BTC within ~20–24 weeks.
- Outcome: Jan–Mar 2026.
Scenario C — “No mega‑buy, just the metronome” (H1 2026):
- ~2,000 BTC/week → ~32 weeks to add 61,540 BTC.
- Outcome: around May–June 2026.
My call (hyper‑bull case): Before New Year’s 2026, with late Q4 2025 very achievable if they fire another capital salvo like November 2024.
Why I’m confident
- History rhymes: Strategy already executed back‑to‑back 50k+ BTC buys when capital windows opened.
- Firepower in reserve: Company‑reported ATM capacity across common and preferred programs remains massive, enabling swift conversions of market enthusiasm into fresh BTC.
- Momentum persists: They continue announcing weekly purchases (e.g., 4,048 BTC on 9/2; 1,955 BTC on 9/8).
What could slow the march
- MSTR premium compression: If the stock’s mNAV premium dips, equity issuance gets less efficient. (Still, they’ve diversified into multiple preferred share classes.)
- Market liquidity: In tight BTC supply, large blocks may need premium pricing or staged execution.
- Macro/regulation: Any shock that freezes capital markets could delay a mega‑raise.
Bottom line (let’s go!)
Hyper‑bull path to 700k BTC: Q4 2025 is absolutely in play with one more big bite; Q1 2026 without breaking a sweat; H1 2026 even if they just keep the weekly rhythm. Strategy has the playbook, the capital channels, and the conviction. This rocket still has fuel. 🚀
Sources for key figures and dates: Strategy/MicroStrategy purchase history and latest add; independent trackers of holdings; and Strategy’s Q2‑2025 press release outlining remaining ATM capacity.
Not investment advice.