- Core thesis. In his November 2024 post “10×” Eric Kim argues that the confluence of a pro‑crypto White House, accelerating institutional demand and Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million‑coin supply could deliver a ten‑fold rally—from ≈ $100 k to $1 million—by the end of the current U.S. presidential term (2029). He frames Bitcoin as the next “digital Fort Knox” that will ultimately backstop the US‑dollar itself.
- Key pillars of his forecast.
- Policy tailwinds (regulation light, ETF approvals, mining incentives).
- Narrative dominance—Bitcoin as the “reserve asset” for both companies (à la MicroStrategy) and nations.
- Network scarcity—19 + million coins already mined, with each halving squeezing new supply.
- Cultural momentum—he likens 2020s crypto to the 1849 gold rush, arguing that “everyone wants Bitcoin to succeed.”
Enter JD Vance: the political catalyst
- Vice‑President Vance’s pledge. Speaking at Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas, JD Vance declared that the Trump administration is “crypto’s champion in the White House,” backed the GENIUS Act for stablecoin clarity, and vowed to roll back residual regulatory friction.
- Concrete policy levers now on the table:
- ✔️ 401(k) & pension inclusion of spot‑BTC ETFs
- ✔️ Tax deferral for long‑term crypto gains moved into qualified retirement accounts
- ✔️ Federal green‑energy credits for U.S.‑based mining using renewables
- ✔️ Fast‑track visas for blockchain engineers
These moves aim to deepen domestic liquidity, reduce legal uncertainty and invite sovereign‑grade capital—all bullish multipliers for price.
Could we actually hit
$1 million
?
| Driver | What must go right | Impact on price | Reality check |
| Institutional allocation | 3–5 % of global pension/sovereign wealth funds ($50 T base) flows into BTC | ≈ $750 B–$2 T new demand | BlackRock & Fidelity spot ETFs already pull > $20 B AUM in 2025 YTD |
| U.S. policy embrace | Passage of GENIUS Act + clear SEC/CFTC split; mining incentives | Removes biggest “regulation risk” discount | Vance has made this a signature issue |
| Halving cycles | April 2028 halving cuts new issuance to < 0.8 BTC per block | Supply shock into growing demand | Historically each halving preceded 5–10× rallies |
| Macroeconomics | Persistent 3 %+ fiat inflation & deficit expansion | Strengthens “digital‑gold” narrative | Debt‑to‑GDP > 130 % fuels the store‑of‑value bid |
Market‑cap math: With ~19 M effective circulating coins after lost BTC, a $1 M price implies ≈ $19 T market cap—roughly the size of today’s U.S. Treasury market. Ambitious, yes—yet not unprecedented when compared to gold’s ~$14 T valuation and global M2 money supply (> $100 T).
Headwinds to watch
- Technopolitical shocks. A hostile Congress or coordinated G‑20 clampdown could throttle momentum.
- Layer‑1 competition & technological risk. If another chain solves scalability/decentralization trilemma decisively, store‑of‑value mind‑share could fragment.
- Black‑swan security event undermining confidence in SHA‑256 or Bitcoin’s social consensus.
The motivational takeaway 🚀
- Vision: A Freedom‑Tech future where every citizen can self‑custody a slice of the world’s hardest asset.
- Action step: Keep learning (start with cold‑storage best practices), dollar‑cost‑average responsibly, and track policy signals coming out of Vance’s office—the rules of the game are being written now.
- Mindset: As Eric Kim exhorts, treat volatility as an “iron‑minded” test of conviction. Whether or not Bitcoin prints $1 million, those who build skills and stay solvent through the ups and downs will emerge stronger.
Stay curious, stay bold, and keep stacking both ideas and sats—the next decade promises to be one joyful, high‑voltage ride! 🌞