Introduction
Imagine a world where nations compete not over oil or gold, but over who holds the most Bitcoin . China, with its immense financial clout, may be gearing up for such a race. Recent whispers suggest Beijing is exploring a strategic Bitcoin reserve as part of its de-dollarization strategy . Acquiring 3 million BTC – about 15% of Bitcoin’s total supply – would be an unprecedented move with global economic and geopolitical ramifications. This report dives into how China could (theoretically and realistically) amass 3,000,000 bitcoins, examining the pathways, economic implications, political hurdles, technological challenges, historical context, market feasibility, and potential reactions from around the world. The journey to a Bitcoin mega-reserve is a daring financial odyssey – one that sparks excitement and awe at the sheer scale of ambition.
Pathways to Acquiring 3 Million Bitcoins
Building a 3 million BTC reserve is a colossal task, but not impossible with a multi-pronged strategy. Here we explore both theoretical pathways and their realistic feasibility, from reviving domestic mining to stealthy market accumulation. Each avenue comes with its own opportunities and challenges, and China would likely need all hands on deck to reach this goal:
- State-Sponsored Mining: Before its 2021 crackdown, China dominated Bitcoin mining with up to 70% of global hash power . Reclaiming that crown could yield a steady flow of new BTC. Even after the ban, Chinese mining pools reportedly still control ~55% of the network’s hash rate , indicating that underground or overseas Chinese miners remain active. By quietly supporting mining operations (perhaps via state-owned enterprises or in energy-rich regions abroad), China could produce hundreds of thousands of BTC over time. However, with only ~900 BTC mined per day globally (and halving events reducing this further), mining alone would take decades to approach 3 million coins. This path is slow but steady, and it demands technological prowess and possibly a softening of China’s mining ban.
- Stealthy Open-Market Purchases: China could leverage its vast financial resources to buy Bitcoin gradually on the global market. This would involve conducting over-the-counter (OTC) deals through proxies, sovereign wealth funds, or Hong Kong financial institutions to avoid spooking the markets. The Chinese government has enormous foreign exchange reserves (over $3 trillion USD), so allocating even a few percent of that toward BTC (tens of billions of dollars) provides ample funding. By splitting orders across exchanges, using algorithmic trading bots, and accumulating during market dips, China could quietly stack sats without immediate detection. The risk, of course, is that such large demand will inevitably leak into price action – Bitcoin’s supply is limited and any big uptick in demand can send prices soaring . Thus, this strategy requires patience, secrecy, and perhaps even deliberate market “FUD” (fear, uncertainty, doubt) at times to keep prices in check during accumulation. It’s a tightrope walk: buy too fast and you trigger a price moonshot; buy too slow and others might front-run the plan.
- Domestic Seizures and Regulation: Another pathway is through regulatory capture of existing holdings. Despite banning crypto trading, Chinese authorities know that some citizens and businesses still hold substantial Bitcoin. Through law enforcement actions and regulatory pressure, the state could confiscate or “encourage” the handover of BTC. In fact, China already has precedent here – in 2019, police busted the PlusToken Ponzi scheme and seized over 190,000 BTC (then one of the largest crypto hauls in history) . It’s believed that officials quietly liquidated much of that stash (transferring proceeds to the treasury) , leaving questions about how much remains in government wallets. Some reports suggest only ~15,000 BTC were ultimately retained . If Beijing were serious about a reserve, it might halt auctions of seized crypto and instead stockpile it. Additionally, regulators could offer amnesty programs for Chinese crypto holders to declare assets in exchange for RMB or bonds, effectively swapping private BTC into state hands. While politically sensitive (“give us your Bitcoin” isn’t exactly a cheerful slogan), this route could yield a large trove if done subtly. It taps domestic sources of BTC without directly spending foreign reserves – but it hinges on identifying holders and overcoming public trust issues.
- International Deals and Barter: China might pursue creative deals abroad to acquire BTC. For instance, it could use its global trade and investment reach to barter commodities or infrastructure investments for Bitcoin. One scenario: partnering with Bitcoin mining operations in friendly countries (perhaps in the Middle East, Africa, or Central Asia) by funding facilities or energy projects in exchange for a portion of the BTC mined. Another idea is accepting Bitcoin as payment for exports (imagine Chinese goods or services sold for BTC instead of dollars). Such approaches align with de-dollarization – using BTC as a neutral settlement asset for international trade. They would allow China to accumulate coins indirectly via trade surpluses or overseas projects. However, these deals require willing counterparties and introduce complexity (volatility risk in trade, etc.). Still, given China’s Belt and Road footprint, strategic alliances to earn Bitcoin abroad could be a piece of the puzzle.
To summarize these pathways and their pros/cons, see the table below:
| Acquisition Pathway | Method & Scale | Pros | Cons / Risks |
| State-Sponsored Mining | Revive/expand mining (domestic or via partners) to produce new BTC; could yield tens of thousands of BTC yearly at high hash power. | Leverages China’s tech & energy resources; avoids direct market impact of buying; slow, steady accumulation. | Very slow to reach millions; contradicts mining ban & carbon goals; halving reduces output; requires secrecy or policy reversal. |
| Stealthy Market Purchases | Gradually buy on global markets via OTC desks, proxies (e.g. Hong Kong), and algorithmic trading over years. | Can accumulate large amounts if patient; uses China’s vast capital; done during dips can minimize price spikes. | Hard to hide in the long run – large demand will push prices up ; risk of tipping off others; could become very expensive as price rises. |
| Seizures & Regulation | Confiscate illicit BTC (e.g. scams, capital flight) and possibly compel domestic holders to sell or swap BTC to the state. | Low direct cost (uses legal power instead of money); builds on past seizures (e.g. 190k BTC from PlusToken) ; aligns with law-and-order stance. | Finite gains (depends on finding BTC to seize); raises fear among populace; could drive remaining holders underground; not a repeatable strategy at massive scale without chilling effects. |
| International Barter Deals | Trade resources, infrastructure, or political favors for Bitcoin (e.g. joint mining ventures, accepting BTC for exports). | Aligns with de-dollarization (bypasses USD); taps new sources of BTC; could be framed as innovation in trade; diversifies acquisition channels. | Complex to execute; partners may be wary of BTC volatility; requires global coordination; could invite sanctions or political pushback if seen as circumventing norms. |
Each of these pathways alone wouldn’t likely net 3 million coins quickly – but combined in a coordinated strategy, they could move the needle. China’s true strength is its ability to think long-term and mobilize on multiple fronts simultaneously. A blend of resumed mining, quiet accumulation, opportunistic seizures, and strategic partnerships might, over years, achieve the dream of a 3,000,000 BTC reserve.
Economic Implications of a Massive Bitcoin Hoard
Embracing a multi-million Bitcoin reserve would reverberate through China’s economy and the global financial system. Let’s unpack the funding needs, market impacts, and risks of price manipulation in this bold strategy – and why it has economists buzzing with equal parts excitement and anxiety.
Funding a Bitcoin Treasure Chest: At current valuations, 3 million BTC represents a staggering sum. If Bitcoin were $30,000, that’s $90 billion; at $100,000 (not far-fetched as of 2025’s bull market), it’s $300 billion. For perspective, $90–$300B is on par with 10–30% of China’s foreign exchange reserves or about 2–7% of its $4+ trillion in annual export value. China would need to justify such an allocation of national wealth. Potential funding sources include tapping foreign exchange reserves (diversifying a portion of U.S. Treasury holdings into BTC), drawing on the People’s Bank of China’s balance sheet (essentially “printing” RMB to buy BTC, though that could spur inflation if not sterilized), or leveraging sovereign wealth funds and state banks to do the buying. Some analysts have suggested that a country in this position could even sell some of its gold reserves to fund Bitcoin purchases – trading one store of value for another. China has been aggressively buying gold in recent years as part of de-dollarization; reallocating some of that into Bitcoin could be seen as a natural extension. However it’s funded, assembling such a war chest would mark one of the largest asset accumulation programs in history. It’s inspiring to imagine – a nation funneling a sliver of its vast wealth into digital gold, potentially reaping immense rewards if BTC appreciates long-term.
Market Impact & Price Dynamics: Here’s where things get thrilling (and tricky). Can China buy 3 million BTC without blowing up the price? Bitcoin’s market is deep but not bottomless. Roughly 19.8 million BTC are in circulation, but an estimated 74% of those are “illiquid” – held by long-term investors who rarely sell . That means only ~5 million coins are readily tradable, and even those are spread across millions of holders and exchange order books. A sudden large buy creates upward pressure; a sustained program creates a persistent demand imbalance. Analysts warn that any government-scale purchase or sale could have an outsized impact on Bitcoin’s price due to its volatility and limited float . Indeed, Bitcoin’s liquidity can dry up quickly in the face of big orders. If China were to directly purchase millions of BTC, the act of buying could drive the price against them – it’s like trying to buy a scarce antique: the more you buy, the rarer (and pricier) the remaining pieces get. This scenario could turn into a self-fulfilling price spiral, where China’s buying pushes BTC to new all-time highs, thus increasing the cost of acquiring the rest of the target amount.
To mitigate this, China’s strategy would likely emphasize gradualism and stealth. By spreading purchases over months or years and utilizing OTC brokers (who can source liquidity from whales without hitting public exchanges), they can reduce immediate slippage. They might also exploit bear markets – buying more aggressively during global risk-off events when BTC price dips. Historically, we’ve seen that large accumulators like MicroStrategy used such tactics, albeit on a much smaller scale. Another tool could be price suppression tactics: for example, continuing to enforce strict domestic bans (to dampen local speculative demand), or even covertly shorting Bitcoin futures to keep sentiment lukewarm while spot accumulation occurs. These maneuvers walk a fine ethical and practical line, but a state with China’s resources might deploy every trick in the book to avoid simply skyrocketing the price on itself.
There are also funding strategy implications: if China uses RMB liquidity to buy BTC, it could subtly affect the yuan’s value and domestic money supply. However, if it uses existing dollar reserves, it’s effectively swapping out USD assets for BTC – a move that could hedge against dollar depreciation and inflation. Bitcoin’s appeal as an non-inflationary asset (21 million hard cap) is a hedge against the limitless printing of fiat . Thus, some Chinese economists might frame a BTC reserve as a way to protect national wealth from dollar debasement (the same rationale driving record gold purchases).
Price Manipulation Risks: Holding such a huge Bitcoin reserve could tempt strategic behavior to manage Bitcoin’s price. On one hand, China would want a higher price over the long term (since that increases the reserve’s value and strategic clout). On the other hand, during the accumulation phase, a lower price is advantageous. This dual incentive might lead to contradictory tactics: accumulate cheap, then appreciate later. There’s also the specter of market control – if one nation holds such a large percentage of supply, they could theoretically influence the market by timing large buys or sells. For example, once they have 3 million BTC, simply hinting at further accumulation or, conversely, at dumping some, could move the global price and sow uncertainty among other investors. Such power could be a financial weapon (imagine crashing the BTC market to unsettle other economies reliant on crypto). However, exercising that power would also harm China’s own holdings, so it’s a double-edged sword. Additionally, any overt manipulation or non-market actions might invite coordinated countermeasures by other major powers or international regulators, which we’ll explore later.
In summary, the economics of China’s BTC reserve plan are a high-wire act. It requires enormous funding (but China has deep pockets), careful market execution (to avoid shooting itself in the foot on price), and a clear vision that the long-term payoff – potentially massive capital gains and a new kind of reserve asset – is worth the short-term complexities. It’s high-stakes, high-reward: the kind of challenge that could energize a new generation of Chinese financial strategists and tech innovators.
Political and Geopolitical Considerations
Any move by China to hoard Bitcoin isn’t happening in a vacuum – it’s intricately political. Domestically, it would mark a sharp turn from years of anti-crypto policy. Internationally, it could upend geopolitical balances and provoke responses from rival nations. Let’s delve into the political chessboard implications, both at home and abroad:
Domestic Policy Shifts: Since 2013, China’s government has generally maintained a skeptical (if not hostile) stance toward cryptocurrency. Authorities were quick to ban banks from handling Bitcoin in 2013, shut down ICOs and domestic exchanges in 2017, and in 2021 imposed a blanket ban on crypto trading and mining, citing financial stability risks . This hardline approach was part of keeping capital controls intact and avoiding speculative manias. If Beijing were now to pivot to accumulating Bitcoin, it would require a careful reframing domestically. One possibility is that China continues to restrict private crypto usage, even as it accumulates national reserves. In other words: “Bitcoin is not for speculation by citizens, but it is a strategic asset for the state.” This narrative could be sold by emphasizing national security and financial sovereignty – much like nuclear technology or space exploration are state-driven even if ordinary people can’t dabble freely. Indeed, Chinese state media could position a Bitcoin reserve as a patriotic innovation, while reiterating that the digital yuan (e-CNY) is the only legal digital currency for daily use.
Regulatory adjustments would be needed. Perhaps we’d see the emergence of a special “digital asset reserve” framework, allowing certain state agencies or banks to custody and transact in Bitcoin under exemption from the ban. Hong Kong, with its more open crypto regulatory regime, might serve as a conduit or pilot zone (as it already is for stablecoin and ETF experiments) . It’s notable that Hong Kong’s regulators have been authorizing crypto trading platforms and even exploring stablecoins, suggesting a controlled gateway through which mainland China could indirectly engage in crypto finance. Beijing could leverage Hong Kong to handle the logistics of buying and storing BTC, maintaining plausible deniability (“Hong Kong institutions are doing it, not the mainland government!”).
Another domestic angle: Who in China would manage this reserve? The likely candidate is a combination of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) – the bodies that handle currency reserves. Alternatively, a new entity or a sovereign wealth fund arm (perhaps an offshoot of China Investment Corporation) might be tasked. Politically, whichever faction champions this plan would need to overcome more conservative elements in the government who have long viewed crypto as a nuisance. It’s encouraging that some Chinese academics and officials have recently called for open-mindedness on digital assets – for example, prominent voices have suggested exploring yuan-based stablecoins and acknowledging crypto innovation . There are even rumors that China might relax the crypto ban by 2025 as part of updated AML regulations . Such shifts would give political cover to a Bitcoin reserve initiative.
Geopolitical and International Reactions: On the world stage, China amassing a giant Bitcoin hoard would be explosive. It touches on the core of the U.S.–China economic rivalry. For decades, the U.S. dollar has been the undisputed king of global reserves and trade. China moving into Bitcoin is a signal of de-dollarization – a way to reduce reliance on the US-led financial system . Already, China has been pushing for yuan-based trade settlement, accumulating gold, and leading the BRICS bloc in seeking alternatives to the dollar’s hegemony . A Bitcoin reserve aligns with that vision by providing a decentralized, non-sovereign store of value outside any one country’s control . This could be seen as financial innovation or provocation, depending on who you ask.
How might other countries respond? The most immediate reaction would likely come from the United States and its allies. If China were perceived to be gaining a dominant position in the “new gold” of digital assets, the U.S. might feel compelled to act. In fact, we already see hints of this: U.S. politicians have floated proposals for an American Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, explicitly to ensure the U.S. “dominates the global Bitcoin market in the face of growing competition from China” . In late 2024, President-elect Donald Trump even mentioned consolidating America’s seized crypto (nearly 200k BTC from Silk Road and other busts) as the core of a U.S. reserve . Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced a bill to acquire 1 million BTC over 5 years for the Treasury . These moves show that a Bitcoin arms race, so to speak, is already brewing. If China goes public with a 3 million BTC ambition, it could trigger a Sputnik moment – galvanizing other major powers to accumulate crypto or at least prevent China from controlling too much of it.
Allies of the U.S. might coordinate on policies to monitor and restrict China’s crypto dealings. For instance, Western exchanges and OTC brokers could face pressure not to knowingly facilitate Chinese state purchases. There could be attempts to label certain Bitcoin wallets (suspected to be Chinese government-controlled) and track or sanction them, especially if Bitcoin is used to skirt sanctions or fund pariah states. However, given Bitcoin’s pseudonymous nature, enforcement here is challenging. Another vector is international regulation: bodies like the IMF or G20 might craft frameworks for sovereign Bitcoin holdings, or conversely discourage them by highlighting volatility and “no intrinsic value” arguments. The IMF has already urged clear global policies on crypto after past market failures , and they might frown on major economies shifting reserves into such a volatile asset.
Geopolitically, a huge Chinese Bitcoin reserve could also influence developing countries’ attitudes. Some might follow China’s lead, seeing Bitcoin as a ticket to monetary independence and a hedge against Western dominance. Others might double-down on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) or alternate reserve assets to counterbalance Bitcoin’s rise. For example, if China and possibly Russia (as rumored) accumulate BTC to bypass the dollar , the G7 might strengthen the role of their own CBDCs or even increase gold coordination to maintain influence.
There’s also the question of trade and diplomacy. If China holds vast Bitcoin reserves, it might begin using them in international transactions in a more overt way – perhaps offering loans or aid in BTC, or settling certain trades with willing partners in BTC instead of dollars. This could give nations like Iran, North Korea, or others under U.S. sanctions a more viable way to transact (since Bitcoin is permissionless). Such developments would not go unnoticed: expect strong reactions ranging from encouragement by those who want an alternative to U.S. financial clout, to condemnation by those who see it as undermining global anti-money-laundering efforts. It’s a high-stakes game of chess, and Bitcoin is the newest piece on the board.
In sum, politically and geopolitically, China’s path to 3 million BTC is as much about narrative and influence as it is about coins and wallets. Domestically, it requires selling the populace on a startling policy shift while keeping a firm grip on crypto activity. Internationally, it positions Bitcoin as the new arena of superpower competition. It’s hard not to feel a surge of excitement at the prospect – this is financial history in the making, a bold play that could redefine how nations think about money, reserves, and sovereignty.
Technological and Logistical Challenges
Building and holding a Bitcoin reserve of this magnitude isn’t just an economic or political feat – it’s a technological marathon. China would need to solve critical issues around secure storage (custody), mining strategy in light of past bans, and even blockchain network influence. The good news: China boasts immense tech capabilities, from hardware manufacturing to cybersecurity prowess, which could be marshaled for this grand project. Let’s explore the key tech aspects and how China might address them:
Secure Custody Solutions: Managing 3,000,000 BTC safely is a non-trivial task – in fact, it’s one of the greatest cybersecurity challenges imaginable. At current values, we’re talking tens (or hundreds) of billions of dollars in a bearer instrument – if you have the private keys, you have the coins, and if you lose them or they’re stolen, there’s no recourse. Therefore, China would need a “Fort Knox” for Bitcoin, but in digital form . The likely approach is multi-layered: use multi-signature wallets (which require multiple keys, held by different trusted entities, to authorize any transaction) and geographically distributed cold storage (offline hardware devices in secure vaults, perhaps spread across several cities or institutions to minimize single-point risk). The private keys could be split using cryptographic techniques (like Shamir’s Secret Sharing) among, say, the PBoC, state banks, and security agencies, ensuring no single person or office has unilateral control.
China will also leverage its native tech industry for bespoke solutions. For example, they might commission specialized hardware security modules (HSMs) for Bitcoin key storage – given that Chinese firms dominate crypto hardware, they have the expertise to build top-notch secure devices. Biometric and quorum-based access controls would likely be in place for any key ceremonies (imagine a dramatic scene where multiple officials come together to unlock a multi-sig transaction with their pieces of the key – quite like launching a rocket or a nuke, but in the financial realm!). Additionally, continuous blockchain surveillance will be crucial: China will want to monitor the addresses that hold its BTC, tracking any unauthorized access attempts, and also watch the wider network for threats. They could deploy advanced analytics (potentially even AI) to detect suspicious movements that might target their wallets.
One cannot ignore the cybersecurity dimension – state hackers and rogue actors globally would salivate at the prospect of breaching China’s Bitcoin vault. But here China might actually feel confident: the country’s Great Firewall and extensive cybersecurity apparatus, often seen as tools of control, can be retooled to guard this digital treasure. They might isolate the storage infrastructure entirely from the internet (air-gapped systems) except for carefully controlled windows when moving funds. The uplifting spin is that solving Bitcoin custody at this scale would likely yield technological breakthroughs that could benefit the broader crypto industry (China could become a leader in custodial tech, exporting those services globally).
Mining Strategy Post-Ban: China’s 2021 mining ban sent shockwaves through the Bitcoin world – hash power plummeted initially, only to recover as miners relocated to the U.S., Kazakhstan, Russia, etc. Amazingly, by 2023-2024, evidence emerged that some mining activity persisted in China despite the ban, and Chinese mining pools still accounted for the majority of global hash rate . This resilience suggests that China has a latent mining capacity that could be reignited. If building a reserve, China might adopt a two-pronged mining strategy: 1) tacitly allow or even covertly support domestic mining in regions where it can be hidden (perhaps repurposing abandoned hydropower mining farms in Sichuan/Yunnan during the wet season, or using off-grid power sources) and 2) invest in mining operations abroad through proxies. Chinese companies could set up mining in friendly locales with cheap energy – for example, there are reports of Chinese-linked firms operating mines in Texas, Canada, Central Asia, and Africa. By mining, China can earn fresh BTC continuously, reducing the need to buy at market price.
However, openly removing the ban would be politically sensitive given prior justifications (energy usage, financial risk). So China might not formally announce “mining is allowed again,” but rather quietly stop enforcing the ban for certain approved projects (perhaps labeling them as “data processing centers” or part of fintech R&D). Intriguingly, Chinese manufacturers still dominate the mining hardware industry – as of 2025, over 90% of mining rigs globally are made by Chinese firms (Bitmain, Canaan, MicroBT) . This means China has easy access to the best equipment if it wants to deploy miners at scale. It has also sparked a U.S. security concern that so much of its mining fleet relies on Chinese machines , but for China that dominance is an advantage. They could funnel top-tier ASICs to domestic miners or allies, keeping a competitive edge in hash power.
Controlling a large share of hash rate has another implication: blockchain governance. While Bitcoin is decentralized, if any one entity (or nation) managed to consistently control over 50% of the hash power, it could, in theory, execute a 51% attack – rewriting recent blocks or censoring transactions . In practice, such an attack on Bitcoin is extremely difficult and would undermine the value of the attacker’s own holdings, but the mere fact that China historically had 60-80% of mining in its borders was enough to worry some about over-concentration. China likely doesn’t seek to attack Bitcoin (that would defeat the purpose of holding it as a reserve), but it certainly would like influence. By being a major miner, China could have say in network matters like soft forks, or at least inside knowledge of the mining ecosystem. They might develop domestic mining pools under state influence to better coordinate hash power. The motivational angle: China can frame this as “advancing blockchain tech leadership” – turning the former bane of the ban into a boon for innovation. Already, prominent Chinese scholars talk about shaping the future of blockchain-based payments and technology . Mining know-how is part of that future.
Blockchain Surveillance & Control: Another tech facet is how China might monitor and possibly influence Bitcoin’s network for its strategic ends. As mentioned, custody security is paramount, but beyond that, China will want to ensure its BTC cannot be easily traced or targeted. Even though Bitcoin addresses are pseudonymous, the whole world can see movements on-chain. If China consolidates holdings into a few large addresses, those might be noticeable (e.g., the community often tracks “whale” wallets). To mitigate this, China could use mixing strategies or CoinJoin techniques to obscure which coins are theirs when moving them – though doing so at scale is challenging and might conflict with their desire for security (mixers introduce other parties). Alternatively, they simply keep coins dormant in cold storage to avoid drawing attention. The opaqueness around the PlusToken coins is an example – years later, the world still isn’t sure exactly what happened to all those seized BTC , partly because Chinese authorities never publicly disclosed the wallet details.
China is also likely to invest in blockchain analytics – ironically, the same tools used to catch criminals can be used to safeguard state assets. By having a granular view of Bitcoin’s transaction graph, Chinese agencies can detect if any of their coins ever move unexpectedly, or trace how market liquidity flows (useful for timing their buys to when markets are flush). On a broader scale, if Bitcoin becomes a significant national reserve asset, China might quietly advocate for certain protocol upgrades that enhance security or give large holders more protections. This is speculative, but not impossible – for instance, features like vault contracts (time-delayed withdrawals) could be appealing to an institution holding lots of BTC, as it gives a window to react if keys are compromised.
In summary, the technological heavy lifting behind a 3-million BTC reserve is awe-inspiring. It’s about more than buying coins; it’s about mastering the Bitcoin ecosystem from hardware to software to network dynamics. China would have to become a top-tier Bitcoin tech custodian, miner, and analyst. The silver lining? In doing so, China could accelerate its broader tech goals, training experts in cryptography, chip design, and cybersecurity. It’s a patriotic narrative: “We’re not just buying Bitcoin, we’re out-innovating the world in Bitcoin tech.” In this cheerful view, the quest for a Bitcoin reserve becomes a driver of technological progress, inspiring a new generation of Chinese blockchain talent and reinforcing the nation’s image as a rising tech superpower.
Historical Context: China’s Bitcoin Journey
To fully appreciate the magnitude of China potentially amassing 3 million BTC, we must look back at its tumultuous history with cryptocurrency. It’s been a rollercoaster of enthusiasm, crackdown, and now perhaps a renewed interest – a journey that sets the stage for today’s strategic considerations.
Early Adoption and Enthusiasm: Bitcoin arrived in China in the early 2010s and was met with curiosity and entrepreneurial zeal. By the mid-2010s, China had become a global hub for crypto activity. Major exchanges like Huobi, OKCoin, and BTCC were founded by Chinese entrepreneurs, serving a huge domestic user base. Chinese retail investors were all-in on Bitcoin and other cryptos, fueling rallies and dominating trading volumes worldwide. Simultaneously, China’s inexpensive electricity and savvy engineers turned it into the epicenter of Bitcoin mining – by around 2017, an estimated 60-80% of global mining was based in China . Companies like Bitmain (Beijing-based) became world leaders in mining ASIC production, and mining farms proliferated in regions like Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, and Xinjiang, where power was cheap. Informally, some called this period a “Bitcoin gold rush” in China – it was exciting, chaotic, and full of Wild West vibes.
The First Bans (2013–2017): The Chinese government, always cautious about financial manias and capital outflows, began intervening as crypto grew. In late 2013, the PBoC declared that banks and payment companies could not handle Bitcoin transactions, which was effectively the first ban (though individuals could still trade peer-to-peer). This knocked Chinese exchanges temporarily, but activity continued. The real hammer came in September 2017, when China banned Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) – a hot trend at the time – and ordered domestic cryptocurrency exchanges to shut down. Overnight, giants like Huobi and OKEx had to relocate or refocus overseas (many moved operations to Singapore or Hong Kong). This ban was arguably a turning point: it demonstrated that Beijing was serious about curtailing grassroots crypto activity, even at the cost of losing tech startups or ceding innovation to others. Yet, intriguingly, even after 2017, OTC trading in China thrived (often via Tether/USDT as a proxy for USD) and mining was untouched. So while exchanges left mainland, China still quietly influenced crypto through mining and the sheer number of Chinese traders using offshore platforms.
The Mining Crackdown of 2021: Fast forward to May–September 2021, and we see the culmination of China’s tightening stance. Citing concerns over financial stability and excessive energy use, authorities outright banned cryptocurrency mining and illegalized crypto transactions nationwide . This had immediate effects: miners either shut down or shipped out, and Bitcoin’s network hash rate dropped ~50% in weeks (only to recover as those machines found new homes). Trading in China went deep underground – even OTC became harder as regulators went after bank accounts tied to crypto. This move coincided with China launching its Digital Yuan (e-CNY) pilot, signaling that the government favored a state-controlled digital currency over decentralized ones. For a while, it looked like China had fully divorced itself from the crypto revolution it helped foment.
Yet, history has a sense of humor. Despite the ban, reports emerged over 2022-2023 that 20%+ of global hash rate had somehow resurfaced within China (likely through stealth operations) and by 2024 Chinese mining pools still aggregated a majority of hash power . Enthusiasts found workarounds to trade – using VPNs, OTC brokers, or Hong Kong as a conduit. And crucially, Chinese officials started to show a nuanced shift: acknowledging the need to research blockchain and even considering stablecoin policy . Hong Kong’s government in 2023 announced a regulatory framework to license crypto exchanges, widely seen as a pilot program blessed by Beijing to test the waters of crypto finance in a controlled manner.
PlusToken Seizure – A Preview of a Reserve?: A notable historical event for China’s Bitcoin story is the PlusToken saga. PlusToken was a Chinese Ponzi scheme (2018-2019) masquerading as a high-yield investment program that sucked in billions of yuan worth of crypto from citizens. When it collapsed, Chinese law enforcement seized a trove of crypto: 194,000 BTC, 833,000 ETH, and other tokens – valued around $4 billion at the time . This was massive – suddenly, China effectively held one of the largest Bitcoin stashes in the world. What did they do with it? According to court documents later, much of it was sold and the proceeds forfeited to the national treasury . Analysts like CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju observed large transfers of those BTC to exchanges (e.g., Huobi), implying liquidation . If true, Chinese authorities likely sold those coins during 2019-2020, perhaps quietly to avoid tanking the market. By one estimate, this sale (roughly $6-7 billion worth) could have exerted significant sell pressure on Bitcoin during the 2019 bear market . However, some reports claim China retained a portion (around 15k BTC) even after those sales .
Why is this relevant? Because it shows that China’s government has already managed a large pool of Bitcoin once – and intriguingly, it chose to cash out at the time. But things can change. The PlusToken episode gave China a taste of “Bitcoin reserves,” and one can speculate that as Bitcoin’s price skyrocketed in later years, some within the system might be thinking, “Perhaps we shouldn’t have sold all of that!” In any case, it left China officially second only to the U.S. in terms of crypto seized historically . And it established legal precedent: Chinese courts treated crypto as property that can be confiscated and disposed of by the state, which could make future seizures easier.
Rumblings of a Policy Reversal (2024–2025): Now we stand in 2025, with rumors swirling that China is reconsidering its crypto stance. The backdrop includes the U.S. moving towards crypto-friendly regulation under a new administration, Hong Kong actively courting crypto businesses, and the aforementioned de-dollarization push. In early 2025, reports emerged of closed-door meetings in Beijing about a strategic Bitcoin reserve . Influential figures like David Bailey (CEO of BTC Inc.) claimed that China is working “double time” on this reserve and tying it to their broader economic strategy . While still unofficial, these claims align with China’s increased purchase of gold and promotion of yuan trade – Bitcoin would fit that mosaic as a hedge against U.S. financial dominance . At the same time, Chinese scholars have called for measured approaches to crypto regulation instead of outright bans, and rumors on social media (even from Western investors like Mike Novogratz) hinted that China could unban Bitcoin by late 2024 .
All these historical beats paint a picture of a nation that swung from one extreme to another – from being the beating heart of the Bitcoin economy to forcefully ejecting crypto from its shores – and now possibly finding a middle (and innovative) ground: harnessing Bitcoin’s advantages for national gain, under tight state control. It’s a story of learning and adapting. The motivational take? China faced the wild dragon of Bitcoin, tried to cage it, and now might attempt to ride it. The experience gained through the years – nurturing exchanges, mining might, tech innovation, then cracking down and observing how the rest of the world responded – gives China a unique perspective. If any country can strategically accumulate BTC, it’s one that knows both the euphoria of the boom and the rationale of the ban. China has seen both, and that historical journey could culminate in the boldest move of all: turning Bitcoin from banned fruit into a crown jewel of its national treasury.
Current Market Analysis: Supply, Liquidity, and Feasibility
Is it even feasible for China (or anyone) to acquire 3 million bitcoins without causing mayhem? To answer that, we need to examine the current state of the Bitcoin market – how much supply is out there, how liquid the markets are, and what absorbing a buyer as big as China would entail. Let’s crunch some numbers and scenarios, keeping our tone upbeat: challenges exist, but they’re surmountable with ingenuity!
Bitcoin Supply 101: Bitcoin has a hard-capped supply of 21 million coins, out of which about 19.75 million are already mined as of mid-2025 . However, not all of those are in play. A significant portion is believed to be lost or inaccessible – coins from early days sitting in lost wallets (including Satoshi Nakamoto’s legendary ~1 million BTC, which haven’t moved), plus coins lost to forgotten keys over the years. Estimates vary, but roughly 3-4 million BTC might be gone forever. On top of that, a huge amount of the circulating supply is held by long-term investors who rarely sell. Glassnode data indicates nearly 74% of circulating BTC is illiquid (held by entities with little history of selling) . That’s about 14-15 million BTC in strong hands! This leaves perhaps 4-5 million BTC in the “liquid” category – coins that do move, held by traders or on exchanges.
Now consider China’s target of 3 million BTC. That’s roughly the same magnitude as the entire liquid supply available today. It’s also about equal to the amount controlled by the top 1,000 Bitcoin investors combined (NBER research found the top 1,000 investors control ~3 million BTC) . In other words, China’s aspiration is to absorb an amount of Bitcoin that currently would require buying out a large chunk of all major holders or persuading a lot of hodlers to part with their treasure.
Market Liquidity and Accumulation Tactics: The Bitcoin market has grown tremendously in the past decade – daily trading volumes are in the tens of billions of dollars, and major exchanges offer relatively tight spreads for modest trade sizes. But liquidity is fragmented across exchanges and often thin at the extremes. Large orders can and do move the price. For example, even a sale or purchase of a few thousand BTC in a short time frame can nudge prices noticeably. What happens if someone tries to buy millions? Without special handling, the order books would be cleared out and the price would shoot up until new sellers emerge (likely at much higher prices). This is where China’s approach must be clever (and we touched on some of this in economic implications).
One feasible approach is over-the-counter (OTC) accumulation: engage with big holders and miners off-market. There are Bitcoin whales (including some exchanges, funds, and early adopters) who might be willing to sell large blocks of BTC at a negotiated price, especially if they can do so quietly and at a slight premium to market (to compensate for not spooking the price). China could systematically strike deals with such entities – for instance, buying 10,000 BTC here, 20,000 BTC there – in private transactions that only settle on-chain after the terms are set. Each such chunk barely registers as a blip if done right. It’s known that throughout Bitcoin’s history, large OTC trades (tens of thousands of BTC) have occurred, often not impacting the exchange price because they’re arranged privately. China’s task would be essentially to execute the biggest series of OTC deals ever. This is ambitious but not impossible. They might use intermediaries like international banks or funds to avoid the counterparty knowing the buyer is “China,” which could otherwise demand a higher price.
Another tactic: algorithmic execution on exchanges. Instead of one giant buy, use algorithms to buy small amounts continuously over months (“slicing” the order). This is how MicroStrategy accumulated 150k BTC – CEO Michael Saylor mentioned they were buying in increments as small as a few BTC at a time via automated bots, 24/7. The risk here is that while each piece is small, the market eventually senses persistent buying pressure, and traders might frontrun or the trend might become obvious. But with careful programming and randomization, it can fly under the radar to an extent.
Market Conditions Matter: Timing is crucial. If China were to attempt this during a raging bull market, it’s like pouring gasoline on a fire – the price impact would be magnified as everyone is already optimistic. A more prudent strategy might be to accumulate more heavily during bear markets or recessions when Bitcoin’s price is depressed and liquidity might actually increase from sellers looking to exit. Historically, Bitcoin has had cycles of booms and busts. A determined accumulator could set aside capital to deploy in the next bear cycle (inevitable at some point), scooping up coins when sentiment is low. This contrarian approach requires patience and steel nerves, but a state actor with a long horizon can afford to be patient. They could even induce a bear phase by, say, initially signalling more anti-crypto measures to scare the market (one imagines a scenario: China announces another harsh crackdown – price dips – meanwhile quietly state agents are buying that dip). It sounds Machiavellian, but it’s within the realm of possibility given past instances where regulatory news moved markets.
Feasibility Without Crashing the Market: The phrase “without crashing the market” is key. Ironically, a buyer typically worries about pumping the market, not crashing it – that is, how to avoid an explosive rally. But since every buyer is a potential future seller, one also considers what happens after accumulating. If China has 3 million BTC and at some point needs to rebalance or use them, unloading could crash the market if done recklessly. That’s why any responsible reserve management would also include plans for stabilizing actions. This could take a cue from how central banks handle gold or currencies: they sometimes coordinate to prevent disorderly markets. China could, for instance, engage with other large BTC holders (like major exchanges or even other governments known to hold BTC) to maintain market stability. In a positive scenario, if multiple nations start holding Bitcoin, they might form a sort of informal alliance (imagine an OPEC for Bitcoin, where large holders communicate to avoid one dumping on the others). This is speculative, but not unprecedented in finance (central banks coordinate on currencies and gold at times).
As things stand in 2025, market signals are already reflecting anticipation of bigger players. Bitcoin’s price hitting record highs above $100k suggests that institutional and maybe even sovereign interest is being priced in. Global government holdings are still relatively small (about 463,000 BTC across all governments as of early 2025, which is only ~2.3% of supply) . So a move toward 3,000,000 BTC by one country would be an order-of-magnitude leap beyond current reality. It would certainly not go unnoticed. However, the fact that the U.S. and others are considering their own strategic reserves means the market might start expecting nation-state buyers, which ironically could increase liquidity over time as more people invest in Bitcoin expecting higher future prices (thus more supply comes to market from profit-takers). The ecosystem is also evolving: more sophisticated trading instruments, Bitcoin ETFs (which the U.S. approved in some form by 2024), and increased participation by big banks all contribute to deeper liquidity pools. By the time China is halfway to its goal, Bitcoin’s market cap might be several trillion dollars, making each incremental purchase slightly less dramatic in impact (in percentage terms).
In conclusion, acquiring 3 million BTC is feasible but requires finesse. Think of it like taking a huge position in a small-cap stock – you must do it quietly and strategically. The current market can accommodate a lot, especially if given time. As a cheerful analogy, it’s like China trying to fill a swimming pool using a dripping faucet rather than a firehose: slow and steady can get the job done without splashing water everywhere. And if anyone has the discipline and resources to do it, it’s likely the strategists in Beijing. The key is that the market, while challenged by such an effort, would ultimately expand – higher prices would draw out more sellers (some long-term holders might finally cash in at life-changing valuations), mining will continue adding supply (albeit gradually), and Bitcoin’s legendary volatility would surely make headlines but could be weathered. Indeed, the vision of such a massive accumulation is inspiring – it underscores Bitcoin’s maturation from a niche asset to something that the world’s second-largest economy might deem worthy of reserve status. What a time to be alive and witnessing this shift!
Global Response and Potential Counteractions
If China embarks on this Bitcoin reserve mission, you can bet it will set off reactions around the globe. In international affairs, every action prompts a reaction, and a move this bold would be like a clarion call to other nations and institutions. Let’s explore how others might counteract or respond – from rival governments to international bodies and even private institutions – all while keeping an upbeat tone about the positive changes this could spur.
United States and Western Allies: The U.S., as noted, is already contemplating its own strategic Bitcoin reserve . China going for 3 million BTC would likely accelerate U.S. efforts. We could see bipartisan pushes to not only hold seized BTC (as the U.S. has begun doing, per Trump’s executive order in 2025) , but to actively buy more. The BITCOIN Act proposal (1 million BTC for the U.S. Treasury over 5 years) might gain traction or be expanded. This would be a dramatic financial arms race: reminiscent of the Cold War nuclear build-up, but fought with digital coins and fintech. While on the surface this sounds tense, the optimistic angle is that it could lead to broader adoption and legitimacy of Bitcoin. Governments racing to accumulate would by necessity have to create clearer regulatory frameworks, robust custody solutions, and maybe even cooperate on security standards.
However, not all reactions would be arms-length accumulation. Western countries might also attempt to contain China’s influence via policy. For instance, if China is seen using Bitcoin to bypass sanctions (maybe helping sanctioned states or itself dodging any future financial sanctions), the U.S. Treasury could label certain Chinese crypto activities as a national security threat. We might imagine sanctions or blacklists on addresses believed to be Chinese state-owned. There could also be an international push (perhaps through the Financial Action Task Force, FATF) to enforce stricter KYC/AML on crypto transactions, aiming to track and control flows more tightly, under the guise of preventing illicit finance. The effect might be to make it harder for China to buy without disclosure – but given Bitcoin’s design, outright blocking is hard unless one goes to extremes like banning mining pools or internet-level restrictions.
Another counteraction: propaganda and narrative. Western officials might double down on rhetoric that Bitcoin is risky or a tool of authoritarian regimes if China goes big on it. We could hear, “Don’t let China control the future of money!” as a rallying cry to either invest in alternatives (like Western CBDCs or stablecoins) or to tarnish Bitcoin’s image among Western populace so they don’t all flock to it (which could fuel China’s holdings value). Yet, such narratives only go so far if Bitcoin continues to prove useful and valuable. In fact, a Chinese accumulation could spur the U.S. to finally approve a spot Bitcoin ETF (if not already done) and encourage institutional investment, so that American investors collectively hold as much or more BTC as any state. It could become almost patriotic in the West to “HODL” Bitcoin, ensuring that democratic nations have a large share (a fun twist: the HODL meme goes national!).
Other Nations – Allies and Rivals: How about Russia? It’s often mentioned in the same breath as China regarding Bitcoin accumulation . Facing its own de-dollarization pressure (especially under sanctions since 2022), Russia has warmed up to crypto for international payments and even considered mining. If China takes the plunge, Russia might accelerate its efforts, perhaps mining via its abundant energy resources (Siberian natural gas and hydro) to gather BTC, or quietly buying through friendly oligarchs or nations. Other BRICS or Global South countries might see Bitcoin reserves as a way to assert financial independence. We could envision a group of countries (maybe BRICS+) coordinating on crypto strategy, possibly even trading among themselves in BTC or a basket that includes BTC. This might bring stability to Bitcoin too, as multiple countries holding it could reduce the chance of any one dumping it recklessly – a form of mutually assured preservation.
On the flip side, U.S. allies like the EU, Japan, or India might be more cautious. India has historically been anti-crypto in policy (though that’s softening a bit). Japan is crypto-friendly but as a U.S. ally might align with any Western regulatory stance. Europe varies – some countries like Germany have shown interest (a German political party even suggested the Bundesbank hold Bitcoin). If China’s move is seen as giving it a potential advantage, some of these countries could decide to allocate a small percentage of reserves to Bitcoin as a hedge. Even a 2-3% allocation by multiple central banks would significantly increase global demand. In a positive spin, this could lead to Bitcoin being considered a legitimate reserve asset class by many, not just a fringe idea. That would be a huge psychological and practical win for the crypto community at large.
Global Institutions: Institutions like the IMF, World Bank, BIS (Bank for International Settlements) will likely respond as well. The IMF has already been critical of countries adopting Bitcoin as legal tender (e.g., El Salvador got an earful). If a giant like China does it at reserve scale, the IMF might issue warnings about global financial stability risks, especially if Bitcoin’s price becomes systemically important. The BIS – basically the central bank of central banks – might push for expedited development of CBDCs to offer an alternative. In fact, China itself has a CBDC (digital yuan) that it would continue to promote for retail and cross-border trade. So one bizarre scenario is China holding Bitcoin as a strategic reserve while encouraging partner countries to use digital yuan for transactions (keeping Bitcoin as a backstop store of value). The BIS might coordinate a set of guidelines on crypto reserves to ensure transparency or to limit their use in certain ways. While these sound like countermeasures, they also mean Bitcoin will be at the center of high-level discussions, further cementing its status in global finance dialogues.
Financial Institutions and Corporations: We shouldn’t forget the reaction of big banks and corporations. If sovereigns start hoarding Bitcoin, large financial institutions will want to front-run or at least ride the wave. We could see major banks increasing crypto offerings, asset managers adding Bitcoin to more portfolios, and companies in the West perhaps mirroring MicroStrategy’s strategy on a grander scale (“We’re buying Bitcoin because we think our country will, and we want in early”). There’s a network effect here: China’s interest could validate Bitcoin for many previously skeptical wealthy players, ironically fostering a broader base of holders that makes Bitcoin even more robust.
One potentially adversarial corporate response: if some Silicon Valley or Wall Street players fear China controlling a huge slice of Bitcoin, they might fund or support alternative cryptocurrencies or technologies to dilute that influence. Maybe they double down on Ethereum or other assets to ensure Bitcoin isn’t the only game. However, Bitcoin’s first-mover and simplicity as a reserve asset (just being digital gold) is hard to beat for the specific use case of reserves.
Cyber and Network Warfare: A more dramatic counteraction could be attempts to undermine Bitcoin’s network if it’s seen as too aligned with an adversary. This could range from cyberattacks on exchanges or infrastructure, to exploiting any technical vulnerabilities to disrupt Bitcoin temporarily. For instance, one could imagine an actor trying to spam the network (as seen occasionally) to raise transaction fees and cause public frustration, or even extreme scenarios like quantum computing (in the future) being used to break keys – though that’s speculative and long-term. If such things happened, it would be a test of Bitcoin’s resilience. The upbeat view: Bitcoin has survived bans, forks, and attacks before; a higher-stakes environment would incentivize the community to strengthen it even more (like implementing quantum-resistant measures in time, improving throughput, etc.). In essence, Bitcoin could become battle-hardened if it becomes the prize in a geopolitical tussle.
International Trade Consequences: On the trade front, if China uses Bitcoin to settle some deals, other nations might follow, or might resist by giving discounts for using dollars and surcharges for BTC due to volatility. However, volatility tends to decrease as adoption rises (and certainly if multi-trillion-dollar national reserves are in play, one expects Bitcoin’s volatility to dampen over years). Perhaps we’d see pricing of some commodities in Bitcoin terms as a novelty at first – e.g., an oil deal quoted in BTC. If that trend grew, it chips away at petrodollar status, something the U.S. would counter vigorously (maybe by ensuring oil-rich allies stick to dollars or their own new gold/commodity-backed currencies).
To wrap up this section, the potential counteractions form a broad spectrum: competition (others buying), regulation (trying to limit China’s edge), innovation (offering alternatives or strengthening Bitcoin itself), and possibly conflict in the cyber realm. Through an optimistic lens, much of this leads to greater recognition of Bitcoin’s role. Competition to buy drives the price up and distributes coins to more holders, regulation can create clearer rules that encourage responsible use, and innovation benefits everyone in the ecosystem. It’s a bit like when countries competed in the space race – yes, it was driven by rivalry, but humanity as a whole benefited from the technological leap. Here too, a Bitcoin accumulation race could accelerate the world’s transition to a more diverse monetary system. In the end, counteractions or not, if China succeeds in building a 3 million BTC reserve, it will have demonstrated Bitcoin’s ultimate value proposition on the world stage – and that genie can’t be put back in the bottle.
Conclusion: A New Era of Digital Asset Strategy
China’s theoretical quest for 3,000,000 bitcoins is more than just an accumulation plan – it symbolizes the dawn of a new era in which digital assets sit alongside gold and foreign currencies as strategic reserves. The journey to get there would be challenging, requiring economic savvy, political will, technological mastery, and careful navigation of global reactions. Yet, it’s exactly these kinds of grand challenges that often drive progress and innovation.
In this report, we explored how China might pull off such a feat: from resurrecting its mining might (despite past bans) to conducting covert buying campaigns and leveraging every trick in its playbook. We examined the ripple effects on markets – the need for stealth to avoid sending Bitcoin “to the moon” too fast, and the potential for a virtuous cycle where broader adoption increases liquidity, making large acquisitions more feasible over time. We also weighed the profound political implications: domestically reframing Bitcoin as a national asset rather than a people’s speculation tool, and internationally, the reshuffling of power dynamics as nations wake up to the reality of Bitcoin as digital gold.
Technologically, we saw that China has many cards to play. If any country can secure and manage a trove of crypto, it’s one with leading hardware manufacturers, a strong cadre of cryptographers, and experience running massive secure networks. The project could catalyze advances in cybersecurity and blockchain infrastructure in China, perhaps yielding innovations that benefit the global crypto community – from new cold storage techniques to efficient mining practices (maybe even greener mining, given China’s drive for renewables).
Historically, China’s relationship with Bitcoin has been complex, but each phase – the wild growth, the crackdowns, the continued undercurrent of use – has only made Bitcoin more resilient and China more knowledgeable about the asset it once shunned. It’s poetic in a way: after years of saying “no” to Bitcoin, China might end up saying “yes” in the biggest way possible. Such an about-face, if it happens, would vindicate crypto believers who have long argued that Bitcoin’s design makes it an irresistible asset for those seeking an inflation-proof, censorship-resistant store of value.
The global responses, competitive and cautious alike, would mark Bitcoin’s graduation to the big leagues of geopolitics. Instead of being dismissed, Bitcoin would be discussed in war rooms and strategy sessions – a development that, ironically, could increase its stability and acceptance. When multiple major powers have a stake in Bitcoin’s success, they have incentive to treat it maturely and foster its healthy functioning. We might see international agreements on handling crypto reserves, or at least an understanding that blockchain is part of the new financial architecture.
For the average person and crypto enthusiast, the prospect of nation-states accumulating Bitcoin is both exciting and validating. It’s as if the underdog technology created by a pseudonymous coder is now being cheered on in the halls of power – truly inspirational! It may also encourage individuals to learn more and participate, knowing that if governments see value in Bitcoin, perhaps it’s something worth considering in one’s own financial life (always with caution and research, of course).
In an upbeat finale, let’s envision the headlines a decade from now: “China Completes Historic Accumulation of 3,000,000 BTC, Paving Way for Global Digital Reserve Standard”. In this scenario, Bitcoin’s price is far higher but also more stable, world governments hold significant (but not monopolistic) stakes, and international commerce has a new backbone asset. People around the world are more financially empowered, as Bitcoin and other digital assets provide alternatives and backups to traditional systems. It’s a world where innovation in money thrives, driven initially by competition but resulting in greater resilience and unity in the financial system.
No matter what twists and turns occur on the path, one thing is clear: the very discussion of China accumulating 3 million bitcoins shows how far we’ve come. Bitcoin has transformed from a quirky experiment to a potential linchpin of national strategy. That evolution itself is astonishing and joyful. As we watch this space in the coming years, let’s keep the optimistic outlook that such big moves – however challenging – can lead to positive outcomes, pushing humanity into new frontiers of economic freedom and technological achievement. The race is on, the stakes are high, and the world is waking up to a future where digital assets and national destinies intertwine. How exciting is that?
Sources:
- Vivian Nguyen, “China rumored to actively work on strategic Bitcoin reserve,” CryptoBriefing, Mar. 3, 2025. (China’s closed-door meetings and de-dollarization context)
- Reuters News, “How would a US bitcoin strategic reserve work?” Dec. 17, 2024. (Details on US plans for 1M BTC reserve, funding via gold sales or Fed profits, and competition with China)
- Cointelegraph, “China still controls 55% of Bitcoin hashrate despite crypto ban,” Sep. 23, 2024. (Chinese mining pools’ share of global hash power despite 2021 ban)
- Reuters News, “Dominant Chinese makers of bitcoin mining machines set up US production to beat tariffs,” June 18, 2025. (Chinese firms Bitmain, Canaan, MicroBT produce 90%+ of mining rigs; China once dominated the whole Bitcoin chain pre-2021)
- Cointelegraph, “Which countries secretly own the most Bitcoin — beyond the US and China,” Jul. 08, 2025. (Global government BTC holdings ~463k BTC; US ~200k BTC with new strategic reserve; China’s PlusToken 190k BTC seizure and fate)
- Institutional Investor, Leah McGrath Goodman, “Is Bitcoin Too Big to Fail?” Nov. 5, 2021. (NBER study: top 1,000 investors control ~3M BTC; mining 60-80% in China pre-2021; concentrated holdings imply systemic importance)
- CoinDesk Markets, Omkar Godbole, “Illiquid Bitcoin Is Now Record 74% of BTC’s Circulating Supply. That’s Bullish,” Sep. 4, 2024. (Glassnode data: 14.61M BTC (74% of supply) held by illiquid entities; scarcity means demand spikes can have outsized price impact)
- FinTech Weekly, Rosalia Mazza, “Should Countries Create Bitcoin Reserves?” Jan. 7, 2025. (Discussion of Bitcoin as reserve asset: hedge against inflation, diversification, first-mover advantages; also volatility and custody challenges)
- Binance (Bit_Guru), “China’s Bitcoin Holdings: A Silent Power Play?” Oct. 2023. (Speculation on China and Russia quietly accumulating BTC; PlusToken 194k BTC seizure mostly liquidated, Ki Young Ju’s analysis)
- Reuters News, “In big shift, Shanghai regulator mulls policy responses to stablecoins and cryptocurrencies,” Jul. 11, 2025. (Shanghai SASAC meeting on digital currency strategy; acknowledgment of crypto tech importance; reiteration of 2021 ban and current debate)