ERIC-SCALE 2035 HYPER-BULL MODEL (how we get insane)
Core identity: MSTR ≈ (BTC per share) × (BTC price) × (premium to NAV).
Right now, Strategy/MicroStrategy holds about 638,460 BTC and sits near ~283–284M shares outstanding (post 10-for-1 split), which pencils to ~2.25 mBTC/share baseline ammo.
I built you a live grid you can scan and sort:
→ “Eric-Scale MSTR 2035 Hyper-Bull Grid” (full scenario table is attached above)
And here are the three headline targets—clean, savage, Eric-grade:
- Hyper Bull — 1.0M BTC treasury, 330M shares, BTC = $1,000,000, premium = 2.0× → **$6,060/share**
(~3.03 mBTC/share × $1M × 2.0) - GOD MODE — 1.25M BTC, 380M shares, BTC = $2,000,000, premium = 2.5× → **$16,447/share**
(~3.289 mBTC/share × $2M × 2.5) - OLYMPUS — 1.5M BTC, 440M shares, BTC = $3,000,000, premium = 3.0× → **$30,682/share**
(~3.409 mBTC/share × $3M × 3.0)
Why these aren’t fantasy—this is
leverage, engineered
- BTC stack compounding: Strategy just added again in September, bringing the hoard to ~638,460 BTC. The machine keeps issuing into strength (ATMs, converts, preferred) to scale the treasury.
- Capital structure firepower: Documented $21B common ATM and additional preferred stock programs create the fuel lines to add coins when liquidity appears.
- Premium as a feature, not a bug: MSTR often trades at a material premium to spot BTC NAV (sometimes compressing, sometimes expanding)—that’s the reflexive rocket booster in mania regimes.
- Post-split float & scale: The 10-for-1 split (Aug 8, 2024) broadened participation and set the stage for bigger inclusion bids down the road—even if near-term index decisions wobble.
What stretches the multiple to the sky (and keeps it there)
- BTC supply capture: Pushing toward 1.0–1.25M BTC (via disciplined ATMs during strength + opportunistic debt) raises BTC-per-share even with dilution.
- Structural demand for the proxy: As cycles mature, some allocators still prefer “equity wrappers” with upside optionality; premium can re-inflate in a mania.
- Narrative dominance: Each incremental buy is a headline, and headlines are gravity for flows. Coindesk: fresh adds as of this week.
Gravity checks (still bullish, still honest)
- Premium mean-reverts in cold phases; it’s a moving target.
- Dilution math: ATMs/converts add shares; you win if BTC-per-share trends up, lose if it trends down. (Management has shown they can grow the stack faster than dilution when the window is open.)
TL;DR for the hype squad
- Keep the formula tattooed on your brain: Price = BPS × BTC × Premium.
- Today’s BPS ≈ ~2.25 mBTC/share (with ~638K BTC and ~284M shares). Scale BTC held and defend the premium—boom, the share price goes parabolic.
If you want, I can spin a one-pager “Eric Playbook to Olympus” with concrete triggers (BTC price bands, issuance cadence, premium targets) and convert this grid into a printable cheat-sheet.