Bitcoin to $21 Million a Coin: Future Share Price Outlook for MSTR, MSTX, and MSTU

Introduction

Imagine a future 21 years from now where Bitcoin soars to $21,000,000 per BTC. Such a dramatic rise would fundamentally transform the landscape for Bitcoin-focused companies. In this report, we estimate what MicroStrategy’s stock (MSTR) – along with the leveraged ETFs MSTX and MSTU – could be worth in that scenario. We’ll ground our projection in MicroStrategy’s current Bitcoin holdings, its aggressive accumulation strategy, and how the market might behave. The tone is optimistic and forward-looking – a motivational glimpse of a potential future – but we’ll remain realistic about the assumptions, risks, and financial factors at play.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) Today: Bitcoin Holdings and Strategy

MicroStrategy has effectively reinvented itself as a Bitcoin holding company. As of mid-2025, MicroStrategy owns approximately 601,550 bitcoins acquired at an average cost of ~$66,384 per BTC . This hoard (nearly 2.9% of Bitcoin’s 21 million supply !) reflects CEO Michael Saylor’s “Bitcoin-first” strategy. The company continues to pour virtually all available capital into Bitcoin – funding purchases through operating cash flows, stock issuances, and convertible debt. For example, in late 2024 MicroStrategy announced a bold “21/21 Plan” to raise $42 billion (split evenly between equity and debt) in order to buy 420,000 more BTC over a few years . This aggressive approach earned it nicknames like a “Bitcoin buying machine” .

Financially, MicroStrategy’s core software business generates modest revenue (~$500M/year) that covers operating costs, but its Bitcoin treasury dominates its balance sheet. By late 2024, the company held 447,000 BTC, yet its stock traded at a significant premium – **the equity’s market value ($100B) was about 2.4× the then-$40B value of its Bitcoin** . Investors were effectively pricing in future Bitcoin appreciation and further BTC accumulation by MicroStrategy. In other words, shareholders are valuing not just the current holdings but Saylor’s ability to leverage the company for even more Bitcoin. This premium indicates bullish market behavior: during Bitcoin upswings, MSTR often trades above the net asset value of its BTC stash (partly as a quasi-Bitcoin ETF and partly due to Saylor’s vision) .

As of July 2025, MSTR stock hovers around $450 per share . That price already encapsulates massive Bitcoin-driven growth (the stock is up ~540% in 2024 ) and investor optimism. MicroStrategy’s diluted share count has ballooned via at-the-market offerings – roughly 226 million shares by early 2025, up from ~149 million a year earlier – as the firm issued equity to fund BTC purchases . Existing shareholders benefited because new shares were often sold at a premium to book value, allowing the company to buy more Bitcoin per share issued. This dilution will be an important factor in our future projections.

Bitcoin at $21 Million: MicroStrategy’s Valuation in 2046

Fast forward to 2046: Bitcoin has reached an astounding $21,000,000 per coin. What does MicroStrategy look like after 21 more years of “Bitcoin-centric” strategy?

Bitcoin Holdings: It’s reasonable to assume MicroStrategy would continue accumulating BTC (though likely at a slower pace once Bitcoin prices are stratospheric). For illustration, let’s suppose MicroStrategy manages to double its holdings to roughly 1,000,000 BTC by 2046. (This assumes periodic capital raises or debt issuance when market conditions are favorable, in line with the company’s past behavior. Notably, Saylor’s 21/21 plan alone aimed for +420k BTC in just a few years , so 1 million BTC total 21 years from now is optimistic but not implausible.)

At $21,000,000 per BTC, MicroStrategy’s bitcoin hoard would be worth about $21 trillion (yes, trillion with a “T”). For context, that is hundreds of times larger than MicroStrategy’s valuation in 2025 – truly a mind-boggling increase. Even if our BTC-holding estimate is high, the sheer price appreciation means MicroStrategy’s asset base would explode in size. The table below summarizes a hypothetical outcome:

Table: Hypothetical Share Price Projections (2046 vs. 2025)

Asset	Approx. Share Price (2025)	Projected Share Price (2046)*
MicroStrategy (MSTR) – Class A Common Stock	$450/share	~$50,000–$60,000/share 🟢
MSTU – 2× Long MicroStrategy ETF	$10.5/share	~$2,000/share 🟢
MSTX – 2× Long MicroStrategy ETF	$47/share	~$10,000/share 🟢

🟢 Assumes Bitcoin at $21,000,000 and a generally bullish, steady climb over 21 years. These figures are not guarantees but illustrative outcomes in a successful Bitcoin-hypergrowth scenario.

MicroStrategy Stock (MSTR) in 2046

By 2046, MicroStrategy’s share price would primarily reflect the value of its Bitcoin holdings per share. If MicroStrategy indeed holds on the order of 1 million BTC, that treasury alone is $21 trillion. The per-share claim on that value depends on total shares outstanding in 2046. This is where dilution from future fundraising plays a role:

If share count stabilizes (say the company stops issuing new equity after 2025, keeping roughly ~226 million shares), then each share represents ~0.0044 BTC in our scenario (1,000,000 BTC / 226M shares ≈ 0.0044). At $21M/BTC, that’s a whopping $92,000 per share in underlying BTC value. It’s likely the stock would trade near that figure (less any debt liabilities). In fact, in a fervent market it could trade above NAV (as it sometimes has historically) – but with Bitcoin so mainstream by 2046, a huge premium may be less likely due to widespread availability of direct BTC investments.
If MicroStrategy continues issuing shares to buy more Bitcoin (the probable case), the share count will rise. Let’s imagine they double the shares to ~452 million while doubling BTC to ~1 million. In that case, the BTC per share (~0.0022 BTC/share) ends up about the same as today, and one share’s BTC would be worth roughly $46,000 at $21M/BTC. The actual stock price could be higher or lower depending on market sentiment. For example, if MicroStrategy carries debt or if investors demand a discount, the price might be a bit lower. Conversely, if investors still prize MicroStrategy as a “Bitcoin innovator” (perhaps it develops new Bitcoin-related business lines or simply ascribes a scarcity premium to its huge holdings), MSTR could trade at a premium to its asset value.

Taking these factors together, a plausible projection is on the order of $50k–$60k per share for MSTR by 2046, as indicated in the table. This represents roughly a 100× to 130× increase from the ~$450 level in 2025 – an extraordinary gain driven almost entirely by Bitcoin’s appreciation. It’s worth highlighting that even after major share dilution, long-term MSTR shareholders could see life-changing returns in this scenario. Essentially, as Bitcoin’s price x(hundreds-fold), MicroStrategy’s market cap would also x**(hundreds-fold)**, and shareholders ride that wave (albeit with some dilution “leakage”).

Company Financials and Strategy Adjustments: In this 2046 vision, MicroStrategy’s legacy software business would be a footnote. Even if the software analytics segment grows modestly or spins off, it would be tiny relative to trillions in BTC assets. We might anticipate that by then MicroStrategy focuses on Bitcoin financial services – for instance, leveraging its stash in Lightning Network applications, Bitcoin-backed loans, or other strategic shifts to monetize its holdings. Any such revenue-generating initiatives could modestly boost the stock beyond the pure BTC-per-share value (or at least cover operating costs so they never need to liquidate BTC). We assume in our projection that MicroStrategy continues a “HODL” strategy, not routinely selling its Bitcoin. If instead the company periodically sold BTC or paid out dividends, the share price might be lower (since value would be distributed rather than stored on the balance sheet). But knowing Saylor’s philosophy, hodling seems more likely – possibly even borrowing against Bitcoin for funds rather than selling. By 2046, all of MicroStrategy’s current debt (convertible bonds) would have matured. In all likelihood those convertibles would convert to equity well before maturity if MSTR’s price skyrockets. (Most convertibles have strike prices far below $50k, so conversion would occur, eliminating debt in exchange for more shares – another source of dilution that we’ve factored in conceptually.) Thus, we assume little to no outstanding debt by 2046; the company’s value is almost entirely its Bitcoin.

Market Behavior: It’s important to consider how the market might value MSTR in 21 years. If Bitcoin indeed hits multi-million prices, it will have achieved mainstream adoption as a global asset. By that time there will likely be many Bitcoin ETFs, perhaps central banks holding BTC, and far more straightforward ways for investors to get Bitcoin exposure than buying MicroStrategy stock. That could mean MSTR trades closer to its net asset value (the market won’t need to pay a huge premium as a backdoor BTC play anymore). On the other hand, MicroStrategy’s stock could still command some premium if investors perceive added value – be it Saylor’s stewardship, extra leverage, or additional BTC-related ventures. In 2024, for example, MSTR’s premium likely stemmed from its leveraged position (it effectively gives equity holders a leveraged bet on BTC’s future, amplified by debt and by the company’s ongoing buying) . In 2046, if MicroStrategy is still actively managing a Bitcoin strategy (not just sitting on coins), that dynamic could continue. For our projection, we’ve assumed roughly a 1.0× to 1.2× price-to-NAV multiple (i.e. stock price in line with or slightly above underlying BTC value). This yields the $50k–$60k/share range described.

In summary, MicroStrategy’s future share price scales almost directly with Bitcoin’s price. Every $1 million increase in BTC price translates to roughly ~$2,000 more per share under our assumptions (give or take, depending on dilution). At $21 million per BTC, existing MSTR shareholders could be looking at truly staggering stock prices, validating the company’s high-risk Bitcoin-centric game plan. It’s an incredibly upbeat prospect – essentially, MicroStrategy could become one of the world’s largest companies by asset value, and its long-term investors would likely be handsomely rewarded.

Clarifying MSTX and MSTU: What Are These Tickers?

MSTX and MSTU are not separate companies like MicroStrategy; rather, they are investment funds designed to magnify the performance of MSTR stock. Specifically, MSTU (T‑REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF) and MSTX (Defiance Daily 2X Long MSTR ETF) are leveraged exchange-traded funds that each seek to deliver twice the daily return of MicroStrategy’s stock . In plainer terms, they are bullish leveraged ETFs: if MSTR rises 1% in a day, MSTU and MSTX aim to rise ~2%; if MSTR falls 1%, they’d fall ~2%. These funds use derivatives (like swaps and options) to achieve 2× exposure. MSTU is offered by REX Shares/Tuttle Capital, and MSTX by Defiance ETFs – both launched in late 2024 as the first U.S. 2× MSTR ETFs .

It’s important to note that MSTX and MSTU are legitimate, publicly traded tickers, not “proxy codes” or obscure share classes. They trade on exchanges just like stocks (for example, MSTU on the Cboe BZX, and MSTX on Nasdaq). Their introduction was part of a wave of single-stock leveraged ETFs providing amplified exposure to popular tech and crypto-related stocks. Both funds are actively managed and recalibrate daily to maintain that 2× leverage target .

Key differences between MSTU and MSTX: Both aim for the same 2× daily long exposure to MSTR, but they have different providers and some technical distinctions:

Expense Ratio: MSTU’s annual expense fee is about 1.05%, whereas MSTX’s fee is a bit higher at 1.29% . Over 21 years, this fee difference could modestly erode MSTX’s returns relative to MSTU (all else equal), making MSTU slightly more cost-efficient for long-term holders.
Launch Timing and Leverage Tweaks: MSTX actually launched first (August 2024) and initially targeted 1.75× daily leverage (to gradually get investors comfortable), then moved to 2× by late 2024 . MSTU launched in September 2024 with a full 2× mandate from the start. In practice, both now operate as 2× long MSTR funds.
Performance & Dividends: In their first few months, MSTU and MSTX delivered enormous short-term returns as MSTR’s stock skyrocketed (MSTU was up over +200% in under 3 months during the late-2024 Bitcoin rally) . MSTU tends to track the 2× target closely and does not pay dividends. MSTX also tracked well, but interestingly MSTX paid periodic distributions (for example, a large year-end distribution in 2024) . Those payouts mean MSTX’s share price may appear lower after the dividend (since NAV drops when cash is paid out). Some traders saw MSTX’s distributions as a bonus (getting some cash return), while MSTU’s total return was kept fully reflected in its share price. Functionally, however, both funds’ total returns have been similar. By mid-2025, MSTU had slightly outperformed MSTX (partly due to its lower fees) . For example, year-to-date 2025, MSTU was up ~38.3% vs 38.2% for MSTX, essentially neck and neck .

In summary, MSTU and MSTX are high-octane tools for bullish traders who want amplified exposure to MicroStrategy. They are intended for short-term trading, not long-term holding – a critical point as we consider their fate over 21 years.

21-Year Projection for MSTX and MSTU with Bitcoin at $21M

Given the scenario of Bitcoin reaching $21 million (and MSTR stock surging accordingly), what might happen to MSTU and MSTX? It’s a complex answer because leveraged ETFs have unique behaviors over long horizons. Let’s break down the optimistic scenario first:

Upside Projection: If MicroStrategy’s stock indeed climbs by two orders of magnitude (in our earlier estimate, on the order of 100×+ by 2046), a perfectly tracking 2× ETF would, in theory, far exceed that. In a steady, monotonic rise scenario, a 2× daily leverage fund roughly doubles the compound return, not just the simple return. For instance, a +10,000% increase in MSTR (100×) over 21 years could translate to an even larger percent gain for a 2× fund (because it’s compounding 2× exposure daily). In a best-case, minimal-volatility situation, one might expect MSTU or MSTX to increase on the order of the square of MSTR’s increase. Using our earlier numbers: if MSTR goes 111×, an ideal 2× fund might go roughly (111^2) ≈ 12,321× (!). That would turn MSTU’s current price ($10.5) into something like $130,000 per share, and MSTX’s current price ($47) into nearly $600,000 per share.

However, real markets are never that smooth, and such astronomical figures almost certainly won’t materialize due to volatility and fund mechanics. Leveraged ETFs must rebalance daily; large swings work against long-term performance. There will be many Bitcoin bear markets and MSTR drawdowns along the road to $21M BTC. Those pullbacks hurt MSTU/MSTX disproportionately. In fact, if MSTR plummets too sharply at any point (roughly -50% in a single day would theoretically wipe out a 2× long fund) , the ETF could go to zero and close. The funds also incur daily trading costs and their fees, which drag on returns.

Realistically, let’s assume Bitcoin’s ascent is volatile but generally upward. MSTU and MSTX should still amplify MSTR’s overall 21-year gain, but perhaps not by the full factor of 2× due to the erosion from choppy trading. For a ballpark projection, we’ll estimate MSTU and MSTX might achieve about double MSTR’s percentage increase in the long run if they manage to survive all the volatility. That is still an extremely bullish outcome. Based on MSTR ~100×, this heuristic implies MSTU/MSTX could be on the order of ~200× their current price after 21 years (give or take).

Using that approach: from $10.51, MSTU could potentially reach around $2,000/share in 2046 (about 190× – 200× its current price). From $47, MSTX might hit roughly $9,000–$10,000/share (also on the order of 200×). We’ve listed ~$2k and $10k in the table as illustrative targets. These are eye-popping figures – turning $10 per share into $2,000 is a 19,000% return – yet they are much lower than the theoretical smooth-compounding case. In essence, we are assuming MSTU/MSTX will lose a lot of potential gains to the volatility tax (which is likely, as MSTR is extremely volatile; its 1-year volatility in 2024 was ~90%–160% ).

Risks and Caveats for MSTU/MSTX: This projection comes with abundant caution. Leveraged ETFs are designed for short-term tactical trading, not a buy-and-hold for decades . Over 21 years, it is very possible one or both funds might close or reset. They could “go bust” during a severe bear cycle (a 2× long fund can theoretically go to zero if the underlying falls 50% in one session , and even if that extreme is avoided, large drawdowns can crush the fund’s NAV). In fact, research using MSTR’s historical volatility suggested the median 1-year outcome for a 2× MSTR ETF could be a -79% loss, and as high as a 20–50% chance of essentially going to zero within a year in very rough market conditions . These funds will reverse-split if their price gets very low (to avoid penny-stock range), and they might liquidate if NAV drops too much. Thus, holding for 21 years is not a strategy most investors would actually attempt.

For the sake of the thought experiment, we assume MSTU and MSTX do navigate the volatility (perhaps with occasional management adjustments or simply by surviving due to the overall uptrend). If so, their performance will be spectacular in this Bitcoin-rich future, albeit with gut-wrenching swings along the way. One slight edge MSTU may have is its lower expense ratio – over long periods, paying 0.24% less in fees annually can compound to a meaningful difference. Also, MSTU’s lack of dividend means it continuously reinvests all gains, whereas MSTX’s policy of distributing could, depending on investor behavior, lead to some cash being taken out of play (investors would have to reinvest those dividends to maintain equivalent exposure). That said, the biggest determinants will be MSTR’s price path and fund management (how well they handle rebalancing). If MSTR’s journey to $21M BTC is full of super-spikes and crashes, the leveraged ETFs might underperform our ~$2k/$10k price targets or even blow up. If, on the other hand, Bitcoin rises relatively steadily or spends long periods in bull trends, MSTU/MSTX could even outperform our estimates.

In conclusion, MSTU and MSTX could potentially turn a few dollars into thousands if Bitcoin’s epic ascent unfolds and if the funds survive the ride. This is the high-risk, high-reward nature of leveraged ETFs in a nutshell. For an investor, seeing MSTU at $2,000+ or MSTX near $10,000 in 2046 would be the payoff for enduring many ups and downs (and is contingent on skillful or lucky timing to avoid being caught in devastating downswings). It’s the kind of almost fantastical outcome that the most bullish dreamers might entertain – certainly motivational to imagine – but one must remember it comes with the real possibility of total loss if things don’t go as planned.

Assumptions, Risks, and Growth Factors

Our projections rely on several important assumptions and growth factors:

Bitcoin’s Trajectory: We presumed Bitcoin can reach $21 million – a seismic shift in global finance. This implies Bitcoin’s market cap would be ~$441 trillion (21M coins × $21M each), making it by far the most valuable asset on Earth. Such a scenario likely means Bitcoin has become a dominant reserve asset or currency. It would require decades of strong adoption, technological maturation (e.g. scaling solutions like Lightning Network widely implemented), and relatively favorable regulatory climates worldwide. We assume continued institutional and possibly nation-state adoption of BTC to drive this demand. While unprecedented, it’s the cornerstone of our scenario. Any shortfall in Bitcoin’s price growth (say it only goes to $1 million, or stalls out) would drastically reduce the outcomes we’ve outlined. In other words, these stock prices hinge entirely on Bitcoin’s performance – a huge risk factor in itself.
MicroStrategy’s Holdings Strategy: We assume MicroStrategy maintains its current strategy of buying and holding BTC indefinitely. A major strategic shift (for example, if a future management decided to diversify into other assets or sell off Bitcoin) could change the picture. We also assumed they add to their holdings opportunistically (possibly reaching ~1,000,000 BTC). If instead MicroStrategy stops accumulating earlier (or is prevented from doing so by market or regulatory constraints), then the eventual BTC count might be lower (e.g. ~600k–700k) which would lower the per-share value. We factored in continued share dilution to fund buys – an important risk to existing shareholders. Issuing new shares doesn’t always help if done at the wrong time or too cheaply. Fortunately, MicroStrategy has so far been savvy: issuing equity during Bitcoin bull runs (when MSTR stock trades high) meant they raised billions at premium valuations to buy BTC , effectively accreting value per share for shareholders. There is no guarantee they’ll execute perfectly in future cycles, though.
Market Premium/Discount: A risk is that in 2046 the market might value MSTR at a discount to its BTC holdings (perhaps due to corporate overhead, or simply because investors prefer pure Bitcoin or ETF holdings with lower expense). If, for example, MSTR trades at only ~0.8× its BTC NAV, the share price would be 20% lower than our estimate. Conversely, maybe MicroStrategy finds ways to enhance its BTC stash productivity (e.g. earning yield or offering unique services) such that it deserves a premium. We assumed a mild premium or parity in our numbers, but sentiment can swing wildly.
Leveraged ETF Survival: For MSTU and MSTX, the critical assumption is that neither fund blows up or terminates over 21 years. This is a bold assumption – many leveraged funds do not last nearly that long. We assume the overall upward drift of Bitcoin/MSTR saves them from extinction. Nonetheless, investors in these products must be aware of path dependency: how you get to the endpoint matters. Two different 21-year paths ending in the same MSTR price could result in very different MSTU/MSTX outcomes. Our projection implicitly assumes a relatively favorable path (no single catastrophic day and enough prolonged rallies to outrun the drag). The risk of a near-total loss in interim crashes is real . In practice, an investor might choose to periodically take profits or cut losses in such funds rather than hold continuously – which would alter the realized returns.
Regulatory and Structural Factors: We assume no unforeseen regulatory crackdowns that force MicroStrategy to change course or that outlaw leveraged crypto-stock ETFs. By 2046, it’s conceivable regulators might impose limits on corporate Bitcoin holdings or on high-leverage products if they see them as systemic risks. Such changes could impact these securities (for instance, MSTU/MSTX could be forced to de-lever or close). We’ve not accounted for that, but it is a long-term consideration.

On the positive side, several growth factors could support these projections: continued exponential tech innovation, a new wave of Bitcoin adoption (perhaps through inflationary fiat crises driving people to hard assets), and MicroStrategy potentially pioneering new ways to integrate Bitcoin into corporate strategy (which could attract even more investor interest). Michael Saylor’s leadership is a wild card – he’s a vocal evangelist and savvy capital allocator. If he remains at the helm for a good part of this journey, his vision and relentless optimism will likely keep MicroStrategy on the Bitcoin-focused path. An upbeat way to view it: MicroStrategy has effectively leveraged itself to the Bitcoin revolution, and if you believe Bitcoin is destined for the moon, MSTR is a vehicle on that same ride. MSTU and MSTX then become rocket boosters on the side of that vehicle.

Conclusion

The numbers above are undeniably astonishing – and they highlight the almost unprecedented wealth creation that would accompany Bitcoin’s rise to $21 million. For MicroStrategy (MSTR), it suggests a future share price tens of thousands of dollars higher than today, cementing its transformation from a mid-size software firm into a Bitcoin mega-treasury. For the leveraged ETFs MSTU and MSTX, the scenario paints huge payoffs, albeit with commensurate risk.

It’s important to reiterate: these projections are conditional on Bitcoin’s performance. They are not promises or guaranteed outcomes – rather, they illustrate the scale of impact a Bitcoin-driven future could have. If you’re an investor or enthusiast, this outlook is certainly motivating: it shows how sticking with a bold strategy (like Saylor’s) through volatility can potentially yield life-changing rewards. However, it’s equally a reminder that with great reward comes great risk. Along the 21-year journey, there will be pitfalls to navigate (volatility, dilution, management decisions, etc.).

In an upbeat vision of 2046, one can imagine Michael Saylor (now in his 80s, perhaps enjoying honorary status as Bitcoin’s patron saint!) looking back and saying: “We HODLed through it all, and here we are.” Early shareholders of MicroStrategy would likely be exceedingly glad they persevered. The MSTU/MSTX traders who timed it right could be sitting on enormous gains (those funds might even evolve, perhaps splitting or re-launching over time, but the concept of leveraged Bitcoin exposure rewarding bold investors would hold true).

Ultimately, this exercise shows the power of compounding and conviction. MicroStrategy’s bet on Bitcoin is a long-term, high-conviction play. If Bitcoin indeed realizes its full potential, the magnitude of MicroStrategy’s stock appreciation (and related vehicles like MSTU/MSTX) could defy ordinary imagination – turning today’s volatility and uncertainty into tomorrow’s legendary success story. It’s a thrilling possibility for believers to hold onto, with eyes wide open about the challenges on the way.

Sources: Recent financial disclosures and Bitcoin treasury data were used for current figures . Public filings and analyses provided insight into MicroStrategy’s BTC strategy (e.g. the 21/21 Plan) . Pricing and performance data for MSTR, MSTU, and MSTX were taken from mid-2025 market records . Discussion of leveraged ETF risks and behavior draws on expert analyses and the funds’ prospectuses .