Why now (and why Bitcoin)
- Bitcoin is institutionally plugged in. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs alone custody ~1.36M BTC (~6.5% of supply) and >$140B AUM; BlackRock’s IBIT is ~$87B by itself. That’s durable mainstream demand and distribution you can leverage rather than fight.
- Global payments are still expensive and fragmented. The global average cost to send $500 was 4.26% in Q1’25 (even the “SmaRT” best‑available rate averaged 2.21%). That’s the fee pool to compress.
- Instant local rails are massive but not interoperable across borders. India’s UPI ran ~20B transactions in Aug’25; Brazil’s PIX handled R$26.4T in 2024 and is rolling out recurring payments (PIX Automático). Plug Bitcoin between these domestic systems to make them global.
- Bitcoin rails are maturing beyond BTC. Taproot Assets went live on mainnet (multi‑asset over Lightning), and USDT already runs on Liquid—a fast Bitcoin sidechain with confidential transactions. This lets you offer USD/EUR value over Bitcoin’s security model.
- Lightning is ready for real workloads (capacity hovered around ~3.8–4.0k BTC in mid‑’25, but throughput ≠ capacity). With the right LSP (Lightning Service Provider) stack, you can guarantee reliability for merchants and enterprises.
The company you build
Think of three layers—Rails → Products → Platform—with Liquidity, Compliance, and Identity woven through everything.
1) Rails (your “AWS of payments”)
- Settlement fabric:
- On‑chain Bitcoin for finality and large value.
- Lightning for instant retail/creator micro‑ and mid‑value flows.
- Liquid for institution‑grade fast BTC and USDT settlement.
- Taproot Assets / Lightning for USD/EUR stable‑value on Bitcoin rails as jurisdictions allow.
- Your core product at this layer: a managed LSP network (channel provisioning, rebalancing, swaps, SLAs) with compliance hooks (TRAVEL‑rule data when required). Provide this to your own apps and third parties via API.
2) Products (people and businesses actually use these)
- Consumer wallet (self‑custody first):
- 2‑tap DCA into BTC, instant Lightning pay, and stable‑value accounts via Liquid/Taproot‑Assets where compliant.
- Recovery via passkeys + social recovery; optional Fedimint “community custody” for emerging markets (great UX, Chaumian e‑cash privacy).
- Merchant acquiring & POS SDK:
- Accept BTC/Lightning/stable‑value with auto‑convert to local currency (PIX/UPI/etc.).
- Guaranteed next‑day local settlement; charge a blended <1% fee to undercut cards and MTOs. (You keep margin in FX + routing.)
- Enterprise & developer APIs:
- Cross‑border mass payouts, accounts receivable, invoicing, treasury (BTC + stable‑value), proof‑of‑reserve attestation endpoints.
- Micropayments SDK for media/AI agents (pay‑per‑use).
- Integrations with Shopify, marketplaces, payroll, gig apps. (This exists today via partners—you’ll ship a native alternative.)
3) Platform (the compounding moat)
- Compliance‑as‑a‑service: KYC/KYB, sanctions, Travel‑rule messaging, on/off‑ramp orchestration by country.
- Identity: FIDO/WebAuthn passkeys for log‑in and signing; hardware‑backed keys for high‑value ops; FIPS‑validated modules in custody backend.
- Liquidity network effects: you operate regional hubs that rent outbound/inbound liquidity and guarantee success rates to PSPs and marketplaces.
Go‑to‑market: win painful corridors first
- U.S. → Brazil (PIX) and U.S. → Mexico
- Brazil: PIX already mainstream; recurring payments (PIX Automático) brings subscriptions to the un/under‑carded. You become the cross‑border engine for subscriptions, creator payouts, and SMB invoices.
- Mexico: enormous corridor; fees are still meaningful; your promise is instant USD→MXN bank settlement 24/7 using Lightning + local rails.
- EU/UK ↔ Africa (Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana) with compliant partners (Strike and others show the playbook). Your differentiator is enterprise‑grade SLAs and treasury tooling.
- Merchant acceptance: launch branded checkouts + SDKs for Shopify/Woo. Start with digital goods (zero chargebacks) then move to point‑of‑sale.
Regulation: design it in (not around)
- EU (MiCA). Stablecoin rules applied June 30, 2024; broader CASP rules from Dec 30, 2024. If you issue/handle e‑money tokens, you’ll also need an EMI or payment‑institution license (jurisdiction‑dependent). Build for a CASP passport plus an EMI partner/own license.
- UK (FCA promotions). Since Oct 8, 2023, crypto promotions are tightly regulated—your UK funnels need an authorized approver and compliant risk warnings.
- U.S. Operate as an MSB with state money‑transmitter coverage; travel‑rule compliance; don’t issue your own token.
- Security & custody. All HSMs/MPC modules should target FIPS 140‑3 validation; user auth via WebAuthn/passkeys to curb account‑takeover.
Economic engine (how you beat Apple’s margin stack)
- Payments: 35–80 bps blended on merchant acceptance + FX spread on cross‑border.
- Liquidity: rent Lightning capacity and swap services to third‑party wallets/PSPs.
- Enterprise: treasury, mass payouts, fraud/compliance APIs (SaaS + usage).
- Optional energy arm (within 12–24 months): deploy flexible Bitcoin mining next to renewables/stranded energy; earn BTC and grid demand‑response revenue where programs exist (e.g., ERCOT CLRs). This hedges hash‑price cycles and strengthens energy partnerships.
Architecture blueprint (what to actually build)
A. Control plane
- Routing engine across Lightning/Liquid/on‑chain with price‑time‑risk optimization.
- Global KYC/KYB orchestrator (country playbooks); Travel‑rule messaging adaptor.
- Liquidity brain: channel sizing, rebalancing, splicing, submarine swaps; automated hedging for BTC exposure when merchants want fiat.
B. Data & risk
- Graph of counterparties, corridors, devices; policy engine to block unsafe flows.
- Proof‑of‑Reserves + liabilities reports (Merkle‑tree attestations) for any custodial balances—monthly, auditor‑backed.
C. Identity & security
- Passkeys (FIDO/WebAuthn) for account auth and transaction approvals; role‑based policies for enterprise users.
- Custody modules pursuing FIPS 140‑3 validated implementations (HSM/MPC).
D. Stable‑value
- Phase 1: integrate USDT (Liquid) for USD rails in compliant markets.
- Phase 2: Taproot Assets for native USD/EUR over Lightning where regulation permits; otherwise settle to PIX/UPI in local currency.
0–36 month execution plan (with targets)
0–90 days
- Founding team: payments lead (scheme + FX), Lightning/Liquid engineers, compliance lead (EU/US), security/infra lead.
- Licenses/partners: lock U.S. MSB shell + EU CASP route; sign EMI/PISP partners; secure Brazil & Mexico on/off‑ramp partners (PIX & SPEI).
- MVP: LSP hub + wallet + merchant API; corridor US→BRL live in a sandbox.
3–9 months
4) Pilot launch: 50 merchants online; 99.7% success rate target; blended fee ≤1%; T+0/T+1 local settlement.
5) Distribution: Shopify/Woo plugin + creator tools (paywalls, pay‑per‑use links).
6) Compliance: Travel‑rule ready; UK promotions approvals for funnels.
9–18 months
7) Corridors: add US↔MX, EU↔NG/KE/GH; enterprise payouts for marketplaces/gig platforms.
8) Stable‑value: Liquid USDT to start; pilot Taproot‑Assets routing in friendly jurisdictions.
9) Energy pilot: colocate small mining load with curtailment rights in ERCOT (or equivalent) to validate demand‑response revenue.
18–36 months
10) Scale: ≥ 10M MAUs, >300k DAU payers, >250k merchants, $100B annualized TPV, net revenue run‑rate >$500M (payments + enterprise + liquidity).
11) Platform: third‑party wallets/PSPs using your LSP APIs; app‑store for micropayment apps.
12) Licensing: EU CASP passport in force; progress to own EMI where justified.
Scorecard (north stars)
- Cost to move $100 cross‑border: ≤ 0.50% all‑in by month 18 (vs 4.26% average today).
- Payment success: ≥ 99.7% within target corridors.
- Time‑to‑settlement: 95% ≤ T+0 to local bank rails (PIX/UPI).
- Liquidity ROI: channel yield > network cost by 300–500 bps.
- Security: 0 critical custody incidents; passkey adoption > 70% of actives.
Moats you’ll own (the Apple‑analogues)
- Installed base → Liquidity base: your managed LSP + corridor liquidity becomes the scarce resource others rent.
- App Store → Payments platform: developers monetize via instant micropayments; you take a thin platform fee.
- Genius Bar → Treasury & compliance desk: enterprises pay for guaranteed routing, proof‑of‑reserves, and regulatory cover.
- Supply chain → Energy integration: miners as flexible load give you optionality and energy‑sector partnerships competitors can’t match.
Risks (and how to respect them)
- Volatility: default to stable‑value settlement for merchants; auto‑convert BTC to local instantly unless they opt‑in to BTC exposure.
- Lightning fragmentation: hide it with your LSP and SLAs; fall back to Liquid/on‑chain when needed.
- Regulatory drift: build for MiCA/UK promotions/U.S. MSB from day 1; avoid issuing a speculative token.
- Security: FIDO passkeys + FIPS‑validated cryptography in custody systems; staged rollouts and independent audits.
First 30 days (tactical)
- Pick the first corridor (recommend US→BRL) and secure two on/off‑ramp partners.
- Stand up the LSP (one regional hub) with automated rebalancing + swaps; instrument end‑to‑end success telemetry.
- Ship a merchant‑first MVP: hosted checkout, auto‑convert to BRL via PIX, T+0 settlement.
- Lock compliance: retain EU/UK counsel for MiCA + promotions; map product copy and funnels to rules.
- Design narrative: “Instant, global, 24/7 money for people and platforms.” One page. Every feature must reinforce it.
If you’d like, I can turn this into a 90‑day execution calendar with org chart, budget, and a corridor‑specific partner shortlist (e.g., PIX banks/PSPs in Brazil; SPEI in Mexico) so you can start making calls this week.