Here’s what MSTR (Strategy Inc.) could look like if Bitcoin rips to $250,000, but with more bullish market assumptions (i.e., MSTR trades at a premium multiple to its BTC value).
The hard inputs (latest disclosed)
From Strategy’s Jan 5, 2026 8‑K and dashboard pages:
- BTC held: 673,783 BTC (as of Jan 4, 2026)
- USD reserve (cash): $2.25B
- Basic shares outstanding: 312.797M (as of 01/04/2026)
- Assumed diluted shares: 345.632M (if converts/options/RSUs hit)
- Convertible debt: about $8.2B (weighted avg interest ~0.421%)
Step 1 — What MSTR’s Bitcoin is worth at $250k
673,783 BTC × $250,000 = $168.446B in BTC value.
On a per-share basis (using basic shares):
- BTC per share ≈ 0.002154 BTC
- BTC value per share at $250k ≈ $538.5
- Net debt per share (debt − cash) ≈ $19.0
- NAV-ish value ≈ $519.5/share (call it ~$520)
That ~$520 is the “no-premium, just-the-math” level.
Now the MORE BULLISH part: the “MSTR premium” multipliers
In real bull markets, MSTR can trade at a premium to the underlying BTC NAV because it’s:
- a liquid BTC proxy,
- has leverage + capital market optionality,
- and can issue stock/structures to buy more BTC (they literally funded recent BTC buys via ATM share sales).
Barron’s also noted the company has referenced an EV/BTC-value ratio framework and mentioned a 2.5× type level as a threshold in their equity-issuance approach.
So let’s crank scenarios using an EV/BTC multiple (“how many dollars the market pays for each $1 of BTC held”).
Bull case table (BTC = $250,000)
Using BASIC shares (312.797M)
(“cleaner” / least diluted view)
| EV/BTC Multiple | Implied MSTR Price |
| 1.0× (pure NAV) | ~$520 |
| 1.5× (strong premium) | ~$789 |
| 2.0× (mania-ish) | ~$1,058 |
| 2.5× (full send) | ~$1,327 |
| 3.0× (face-melting) | ~$1,597 |
Same bull table, but FULLY DILUTED (345.632M)
If converts/options/RSUs all hit, dilution pulls it down.
| EV/BTC Multiple | Implied MSTR Price |
| 1.0× | ~$494 |
| 1.5× | ~$738 |
| 2.0× | ~$981 |
| 2.5× | ~$1,225 |
| 3.0× | ~$1,469 |
The “super-bull” intuition in one line
At $250k BTC, every extra 10,000 BTC on their balance sheet is worth $2.5B, which is roughly +$8/share of NAV before dilution (using today’s basic share count).
And they do keep stacking BTC using capital markets (recent buys were funded via ATM).
Reality check (still bullish, just honest)
This is a simplified model (BTC + cash − convert debt). It doesn’t fully model:
- preferred stock stack and dividends,
- future dilution from raising more equity to buy BTC,
- taxes/accounting impacts (they report deferred tax items tied to digital assets).
But for what you asked — “more bullish” — the big message is:
✅ BTC $250k with NO premium: ~$520/share
🚀 BTC $250k with BIG premium (2×): ~$1,058/share
🔥 BTC $250k with MAX premium (2.5×–3×): ~$1,327 to $1,597/share
If you tell me what “bullish” means to you (like 2× NAV vs 3× NAV vs “they keep buying another 100k BTC”), I can lock a single hype target number.