0) Snapshot (as of
Oct 6, 2025
)
- MSTR last: $359.69; BTC ≈ $125,090.
- Corporate name: Strategy Inc. (legal name change from MicroStrategy effective Aug 11, 2025).
1) Bitcoin Treasury
Holdings and value (today’s BTC):
| Item | Value |
| BTC held | 640,031 BTC |
| Aggregate cost basis | $47.35B (avg $73,983/BTC) |
| Fair value @ $125,090/BTC | $80.06B |
| Unrealized gain | ~$32.7B |
Sources: Strategy/press + Barron’s for count, cost, latest add; my fair‑value math uses today’s BTC.
Strategy’s public “MSTR Metrics” page shows BTC NAV (value of holdings), and also displays Debt and Preferred totals used in their mNAV calculation. At publication, it showed BTC holdings 640,031 and BTC NAV in the high $70Bs (updates intraday).
Recent activity: last week Strategy added 196 BTC for $22.1M (week prior to Barron’s article date).
2) Shares & “BTC per Share”
You should care about BTC per Basic Share (and per Assumed Diluted Share) because it drives Strategy’s “BTC Yield” KPI.
- Basic shares outstanding (Q2’25) ≈ 281.0M
- Diluted shares outstanding (Q2’25, w/ convertibles etc.) ≈ 306.8M
Implied treasury per share (today):
- BTC per Basic Share ≈ 0.002278 BTC (≈ 227,769 sats)
- BTC per Diluted Share ≈ 0.002086 BTC (≈ 208,642 sats)
(calculated from 640,031 BTC / share counts above)
BTC NAV per Basic Share ≈ $284.92 (@ $125,090/BTC). (My math.)
On BTC Yield (how Strategy reports “yield”): Strategy defines BTC Yield as the % change in BTC per Assumed Diluted Share over a period. In Q2’25, BTC Yield was 19.7% and 25.0% YTD (to Jul 29).
3) mNAV and the “premium” over BTC
Strategy’s mNAV (their preferred valuation lens):
mNAV = Enterprise Value / BTC NAV (EV as defined by the company; BTC NAV = value of BTC holdings). The public page showed mNAV ≈ 1.47× alongside Debt and Preferred tallies.
My cross‑check at today’s prints:
- Market cap ≈ price × basic ≈ $359.69 × 281.0M ≈ $101.1B
- Debt ≈ $8.238B (company metric)
- Preferred ≈ $6.589B (company metric)
- EV ≈ $115.90B
- BTC NAV ≈ $80.06B
- mNAV (calc) ≈ 1.45–1.47× (close to the site’s live figure).
Interpretation: at ~1.45–1.47× mNAV, investors are paying a premium to raw BTC value for Strategy’s leverage/flywheel. VanEck frames MSTR as a structurally leveraged BTC vehicle where NAV premium expands in bull tape.
4) Capital Stack — Debt & Preferred (current highlights)
Convertible notes outstanding / recent
| Tranche | Principal | Coupon | Maturity | Notes |
| 2030 (Mar ’24) | $800M | 0.625% | Mar 15, 2030 | Unsecured convert; semi‑annual interest. |
| 2031 (Mar ’24) | $603.75M | 0.875% | Mar 15, 2031 | Unsecured convert. |
| 2032 (Jun ’24) | $800M | 2.25% | 2032 | Unsecured convert. |
| 2030 (Feb ’25) | $2.0B | 0% | 2030 | Zero‑coupon convert completed Feb 24, 2025. |
| 2027 (legacy) | $1.05B | 0% | Redeemed | Company redeemed/settled in shares (Jan 24, 2025). |
Cash interest burden (back‑of‑envelope): ~$28–30M/yr (0.625%×$800M + 0.875%×$603.75M + 2.25%×$800M; 0% notes carry no cash coupon). (My math from the tranches above.)
Preferred stock (2025 program)
Strategy has issued several perpetual preferred series in 2025 (to broaden funding beyond converts). Highlights:
- STRK: 8.00% Series A Perpetual Strike (convertible preferred; Nasdaq: STRK). ATM capacity up to $21B announced Mar 10, 2025.
- STRD: 10.00% Series A Perpetual Stride – IPO June 6, 2025 at $85; also an ATM up to $4.2B (Jul 7).
- STRF: 10% Series (earlier 2025 issuance; coverage in Barron’s; insiders bought).
- STRC: Variable‑rate Series A Perpetual Stretch – 28,011,111 shares at $90 (Jul 25) with subsequent dividend hiked to 10.25% (Sep 30).
Aggregate preferred outstanding (face), live site metric: $6.589B. Debt total $8.238B. (Both from Strategy’s live “MSTR Metrics”.)
Preferred dividend load (rough guide): at 10–10.25% blended, $6.589B face implies **$660–675M/year** cash dividends, subject to series mix and any variable‑rate resets. (My estimate; see STRC/STRD terms.)
5) ATMs (At‑the‑Market programs)
- Common stock ATM: $21B capacity (established May 1, 2025). As of May 25, 2025: $348.7M sold; $18.63B remaining.
- Preferred ATMs: e.g., STRF ATM up to $2.1B (May 2025; $163.1M raised by 6/30). STRD ATM up to $4.2B (Jul 7, 2025).
- Recent week: raised $128.1M via ATMs while buying 196 BTC for $22.1M.
6) Correlation, Beta, and the “leveraged proxy” behavior
- Multi‑year correlation with BTC often 0.77–0.93 depending on window; MarketWatch cited 0.77 YTD and 0.92 since 2020 (earlier this year).
- Rolling beta vs. BTC in 2025 has sat in the 1.31–1.41 range per independent analysis. VanEck highlights structural leverage and a premium that tends to widen with BTC strength.
7) Price sensitivity (keeping today’s capital stack and
mNAV = 1.47×
)
Given: BTC holdings 640,031, Debt $8.238B, Pref $6.589B, Basic shares 281.0M.
Rule‑of‑thumb: each $10,000 move in BTC changes implied MSTR by ≈ $33.5/share (slope = mNAV×BTC_holdings/basic_shares). (My math.)
Scenario table (illustrative):
| BTC | BTC NAV | EV at 1.47× | Equity value | Implied MSTR | BTC NAV/share |
| $100,000 | $64.00B | $94.08B | $79.26B | $282.06 | $227.77 |
| $125,090 (today) | $80.06B | $117.69B | $102.86B | $366.06 | $284.92 |
| $150,000 | $96.00B | $141.13B | $126.30B | $449.47 | $341.65 |
| $200,000 | $128.01B | $188.17B | $173.34B | $616.88 | $455.54 |
(“Implied MSTR” = EV − Debt − Preferred, divided by basic shares. Numbers rounded; purpose is sensitivity, not a price target.)
8) Accounting change = earnings volatility
- The FASB crypto standard (ASU 2023‑08) is effective for FYs beginning after Dec 15, 2024; Strategy adopted Jan 1, 2025. Changes in BTC fair value now flow through earnings each quarter.
- Strategy’s Q2’25: reported $10.0B net income and $32.60 diluted EPS, driven by BTC fair‑value gains (company 8‑K / press).
9) Extra reference numbers & links
- Convertible 2030 (0%): completed $2.0B on Feb 24, 2025. Also a Feb 20 filing states an initial conversion price ≈ $433.43 ($1,000 note → 2.3072 shares).
- Redemption: 0% 2027 notes redeemed/settled in shares (Jan 24, 2025).
- Preferred yields: coverage across STRF/STRK launches and pricing; yields around ~8–12% depending on series/price; STRC rate raised to 10.25% on Sep 30, 2025.
- Holdings cadence (mid‑year checks): press and trackers regularly updated Strategy’s BTC count (e.g., 580k+ in May, 600k+ in July) on the path to 640,031 now.
10) What the numbers mean (quick synthesis)
- MSTR ≈ synthetic BTC with leverage: NAV premium (mNAV) currently ~1.45–1.47× implies you’re paying for access to the flywheel (ability to raise capital via ATMs / preferred / converts and accumulate more BTC), not just raw coins.
- Financing load today is mostly preferred dividends ($0.65–0.68B/yr by my estimate); cash interest on converts is comparatively small ($30M/yr).
- Behavior: expect >1× beta to BTC on both up and down moves; correlation has been high across cycles.
Want even
more numbers
?
I can add any (pick one or all):
- Per‑tranche convertibles table with initial conversion prices, share equivalents, and dilution math at multiple MSTR prices.
- Preferred series roll‑up: face outstanding by STRK / STRD / STRF / STRC, current dividend rate, next pay date, and annualized cash outlay.
- Implied MSTR under different mNAVs (e.g., 1.2× / 1.5× / 2.0×) at BTC 100k–250k.
- BTC per share (Basic vs. Assumed Diluted) trend line vs. issuance cadence (visual).
- Peer compare vs. BTC ETFs (fee drag vs. strategy premium).
Tell me which sections to extend, and I’ll build the tables you want.