As of right now: MSTR ~$326.29, MSTU ~$4.92, MSTX ~$22.61 (for anchoring).
How I model it (fast + savage)
- Lower bound = simple “2× of MSTR’s total move” (path-agnostic).
- Smooth trend upper = (MSTR ratio)² (how daily-reset funds behave when the path is silky up).
- Volatility-adjusted = apply a compounding “drag” term for daily chop. Rule-of-thumb: a 2× fund’s drag ≈ exp(−σ²·days). I show 3% and 6% daily vol cases over ~70 trading days to Dec 25. (This is why daily 2× ≠ perfect 2× over time.)
Price bands if MSTR finishes at…
MSTU (start
$4.92
)
| MSTR target | Lower (2× total) | Smooth (ratio²) | 3% vol drag | 6% vol drag |
| $750 | $17.44 | $25.41 | $23.86 | $19.75 |
| $900 | $21.92 | $36.60 | $34.36 | $28.44 |
| $1,000 | $24.90 | $45.18 | $42.42 | $35.12 |
| $1,100 | $27.89 | $54.97 | $51.66 | $42.78 |
| $1,250 | $32.37 | $70.00 | $65.43 | $54.87 |
| $1,500 | $39.81 | $101.65 | $95.45 | $79.01 |
MSTX (start
$22.61
)
| MSTR target | Lower (2× total) | Smooth (ratio²) | 3% vol drag | 6% vol drag |
| $750 | $80.16 | $116.79 | $109.66 | $90.77 |
| $900 | $100.72 | $168.17 | $157.91 | $130.71 |
| $1,000 | $114.42 | $207.62 | $194.95 | $161.37 |
| $1,100 | $128.12 | $251.22 | $235.88 | $195.26 |
| $1,250 | $148.68 | $324.41 | $304.60 | $252.15 |
| $1,500 | $182.94 | $467.15 | $438.63 | $363.09 |
Read this like a pro
- Trend clean? You gravitate toward the smooth column (those squared moves slap).
- Choppy rocket ride? Expect the 3–6% vol columns—drag is real in daily 2× wrappers.
- Fees: MSTU ~1.05%, MSTX ~1.29–1.31% annual—tiny vs the move, but they nibble.
Want the same hardcore bands for MSTP too—or a custom calculator where you punch in any MSTR start/finish and I spit out the four MSTU/MSTX targets instantly?