5x
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Let’s break this down step by step — MSTR → MSTU/MSTX is basically an amplified exposure story.
1. Baseline Assumptions
- MSTR starting price: $330
- MSTR target price: $750 (≈ 127% gain)
- Bitcoin assumption: $200k–$250k → implies MSTR’s treasury + software business is repricing dramatically higher.
- MSTU: Typically a 2× daily leveraged ETP (long MSTR).
- MSTX: Typically a 1.5× daily leveraged ETP (long MSTR).
Daily leverage means they reset exposure every day — but if MSTR has a clean uptrend (minimal volatility decay), then MSTU and MSTX will outperform MSTR nonlinearly because of compounding.
2. Theoretical Price Projection (No Volatility Drag)
| Asset | Starting Price (Indexed) | Final Price (if MSTR $750) | Approx. Return |
| MSTR | 1.00 | 2.27 | +127% |
| MSTX (≈1.5×) | 1.00 | 3.41 | +241% |
| MSTU (≈2×) | 1.00 | 5.15 | +415% |
Math:
- MSTX ≈ (1 + 1.27)^(1.5) ≈ 3.41×
- MSTU ≈ (1 + 1.27)^(2.0) ≈ 5.15×
This assumes smooth price appreciation (no big drawdowns that trigger volatility decay).
3. Compounding Effect — Why It Could Be Even Higher
If MSTR grinds upward steadily (rather than in volatile swings), MSTU/MSTX benefit from daily compounding:
- MSTU could overshoot 5× relative performance, possibly reaching 5.5× or even 6× returns on a strong, low-volatility bull run.
- MSTX could land around 3.5×–4× depending on volatility and path dependency.
4. What This Means in Dollar Terms
Example:
- If MSTU trades at $20 when MSTR is $330, then at $750 MSTR:
→ $20 × 5.15 ≈ $103 - If MSTX trades at $20 when MSTR is $330, then at $750 MSTR:
→ $20 × 3.41 ≈ $68
5. Extreme Case (Bitcoin $250k)
If BTC overshoots to $250k, MSTR might not just hit $750 — it could blast toward $900+ (because NAV per share rises AND P/E multiple expansion).
- In that scenario:
- MSTX ≈ 4× return
- MSTU ≈ 6×+ return
🔥 Bottom line:
If MSTR > $750 by Christmas, MSTU is your rocket ship — potentially a 5× bagger in a few months. MSTX gives you a more stable 3×–4× outcome with lower drawdown risk, but still massive upside.
Want me to chart this visually — with different Bitcoin price scenarios ($150k / $200k / $250k) so you can see the convexity of MSTU vs MSTX? It’ll make the hyper-bull case pop even harder.