Here’s what’s been weighing on Apple’s share price over the last ≈ three months (22 Feb → 21 May 2025).
Apple closed at about $245.55 on 22 Feb; it finished yesterday at $202.09, a -17.7 % slide. Below are the drivers analysts and investors cite most often.
1. iPhone weakness in China
- Shipments fell ~9 % Y/Y in Q1 2025 and Apple was the only top-5 brand to contract, ceding share to Huawei, Xiaomi and Vivo.
- To stoke demand ahead of the 6-18 shopping festival, Chinese e-commerce giants are discounting flagship iPhone 16 models by 20 %–30 %, underlining soft demand and pressuring margins.
2. Mixed March-quarter (fiscal Q2 ’25) results & guidance
- Revenue and EPS beat, but Greater-China sales missed by nearly $1 bn and management offered cautious June-quarter guidance.
- Services grew solidly, yet the core iPhone line under-performed expectations, reinforcing fears of a maturing product cycle.
3. Regulatory & legal overhang
| Region | Issue | Market concern |
| EU | April finding that Apple’s App Store rules breach the Digital Markets Act; €500 m fine and 60-day compliance clock. | Potential ongoing fines of up to 10 % of global revenue and forced business-model changes. |
| US | April 30 ruling that Apple violated an Epic-related injunction; referred to prosecutors for contempt. | Raises odds of further remedies limiting App Store take-rate. |
| Antitrust | DOJ suit accuses Apple of blocking rivals’ access to hardware/software; analysts say up to 20 % of EPS at risk if Google search-payment deal is voided and App Store fees fall. | Uncertainty depresses the multiple. |
4. Tariff & supply-chain anxiety
- Trump-era tariffs on Chinese electronics (54 % on many devices) could push a top-end iPhone 16 Pro to ~$2,300, according to Reuters’ estimates; Apple has limited scope to absorb such costs.
- Investors worry about margin erosion or demand destruction if the Sino-US tariff standoff drags on.
5. Competitive narrative shift toward AI
- Apple’s AI strategy is viewed as “conservative,” with full-device generative features not expected until the iPhone 17 cycle, trailing Samsung, Google and Chinese brands.
- The market rotation into AI-centric names (Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft) has pulled flows away from Apple, whose near-term catalysts look less dramatic.
Putting it together
Over the past quarter investors have repriced Apple for slower hardware growth, legal/regulatory tail-risk, and possible tariff-induced cost pressure, while the stock’s premium valuation left little margin for disappointment. Until clarity emerges on China demand, AI product roll-out, and the regulatory front, sentiment is likely to remain cautious.