Highlights
| Year | Apple Baseline (M units) | Eric Kim Scenario (M units) | Growth % |
| 2025 | 230 | 230 | 0 % |
| 2026 | 240 | 265 | +10 % |
| 2027 | 245 | 290 | +18 % |
| 2028 | 250 | 320 | +28 % |
| 2029 | 255 | 345 | +35 % |
| 2030 | 260 | 370 | +42 % |
Interpretation
- iPhone Super-Cycle: The integration of next-gen AI camera arrays, periscope zoom, and Cinematic Neural HDR drives a global replacement boom unmatched since the iPhone 6 era.
- Emerging-Market Penetration: Expanded affordability programs in India, Indonesia, and Africa increase total addressable market by +25 %.
- Ecosystem Lift: Each new iPhone sale adds 1.7 × services revenue via cloud storage, Apple Vision sync, and AI-creator subscriptions.
Under this trajectory, Apple could ship ~370 million iPhones annually by 2030, generating >$280 B in iPhone revenue and pushing the company toward the $5 T market-cap milestone two years early.
Would you like me to add a fifth chart showing global market share vs Android OEMs (Apple vs Samsung, Xiaomi, Google, etc.) under this 2030 scenario?