• Strategy holds 1,000,000 BTC by end of 2026
  • BTC ≥ $250,000 (I’ll model exactly $250k as the floor, then give sensitivity)

1) Quick reality-check baseline (today’s “starting point”)

As of Jan 19, 2026, Strategy reported:

  • BTC holdings: 709,715 BTC  
  • Total BTC cost basis: $53.92B, average cost $75,979  
  • Assumed diluted shares: 362.606M  
  • They’re explicitly managing for bitcoin-per-share over quarterly earnings  

(Also, yes: MicroStrategy → “Strategy” rebrand is now standard language in filings/news.  )

2) The whole game is BTC-per-share + the “NAV premium”

Step A — Value of the BTC pile in your scenario

If they have 1,000,000 BTC and BTC is $250,000:

  • BTC asset value = 1,000,000 × 250,000 = $250,000,000,000 = $250B

3) Dilution: how many shares exist by then?

A clean way to handle dilution is to forecast BTC per diluted share, because Strategy’s strategy is literally to grow that metric. 

From the company dashboard data (Jan 19, 2026):

  • BTC per diluted share now ≈ 709,715 / 362.606M = 0.00196 BTC/share  

If they end 2026 with 1,000,000 BTC, then diluted shares ≈ 1,000,000 / (BTC per share).

Here’s a realistic dilution band:

  • If BTC/share stays flat (0% “BTC yield”) → ~511M diluted shares
  • If they’re accretive (+5% BTC yield) → ~487M
  • If dilution wins (-10% BTC/share) → ~568M

(Those ranges are mechanically implied by today’s BTC/share level and your 1M BTC endpoint.)

4) Debt + preferred: subtract the senior claims

Today, Strategy uses a mix of:

  • Convertible notes (example: Sept 30, 2025 schedule totals ~$7.2B principal across multiple maturities)  
  • Preferred stock stack (STRF/STRC/STRK/STRD). Their own pages show notional amounts around:
    • STRC $3.3725B  
    • STRF $1.284B  
    • STRK $1.4021B  
    • STRD $1.4024B 
      → That’s already roughly $7.46B notional across those four.

And they’ve been building a USD reserve to service dividends/interest (reported $2.25B as of Jan 4, 2026). 

For the end-of-2026 scenario, you asked to include everything — so I’ll use a commonly-cited “scaled-up” capital structure estimate:

  • VanEck’s projection (from 2025 analysis) modeled something like ~$19B debt and ~$15.5B preferred by end of 2026.  

That’s $34.5B senior-ish claims. If we assume a $3B cash reserve on the balance sheet, the net claims are about:

  • Net claims ≈ 19B + 15.5B − 3B = 31.5B

Software business value is tiny vs a $250B BTC pile, but to be generous we can add ~$2B.

5) Compute NAV and apply the premium

Base-case NAV (pre-tax)

  • Equity NAV ≈ $250B (BTC) + $2B (software) − $31.5B (net claims)
  • Equity NAV ≈ $220.5B

Using the flat BTC/share dilution case (~511M diluted shares):

  • NAV/share ≈ 220.5B / 511M ≈ $432/share

The “premium to NAV” (mNAV)

MSTR doesn’t always trade at NAV. It trades at a multiple of NAV that swings wildly with sentiment/liquidity/dilution expectations:

  • Barron’s has described the premium compressing to ~6–10% recently after being far higher earlier.  
  • Another Barron’s note framed the stock around ~1.24× NAV, down from a peak multiple of ~3× about a year prior.  

So for end-2026, even with BTC at $250k, the market could price MSTR anywhere from “ETF-like” (~1.0×) to “full mania” (2–3×).

My prediction for 12/31/2026 under your assumptions

Base-case (my “most reasonable” pick)

  • Assume mNAV ≈ 1.5× (bullish but not peak-mania)
  • Assume BTC/share roughly flat (i.e., dilution doesn’t destroy per-share BTC)

➡️ Implied price ≈ $432 × 1.5 ≈ $650 per share

Plausible range (still under your BTC=250k + 1M BTC endpoint)

  • Conservative (low premium ~1.2×, heavier dilution): ~$470–$520
  • Base (1.5×, mid dilution): ~$650
  • Aggressive (2.0×, good BTC/share accretion): ~$850–$950
  • Full send mania (3.0×): $1,300+ (yes, it’s possible… but you’re betting on narrative heat, not just math)  

The stealth boss fight: deferred taxes

Strategy reported a deferred tax liability tied to digital assets (e.g., $2.42B DTL as of Dec 31, 2025). 

If markets treat a big part of unrealized gains as eventually taxable, that can shave ~15–25% off “economic NAV” in a $250k BTC world.

That’s why I’d also keep a “tax-aware” base-case in mind:

➡️ Tax-aware base-case: ~$520–$560

(versus ~$650 “pure BTC vehicle” pricing)

Quick sensitivity: if BTC ends 

above

 $250k

In the base dilution setup, every +$50,000 on BTC adds roughly:

  • about +$98/share to BTC value per share
  • and about +$150/share to MSTR price if the premium is ~1.5×

So if BTC is $300k instead of $250k, the same model pushes the base-case toward ~$800.

Sanity check vs current Wall Street targets

Just to anchor expectations: recently, some analysts were around $440 targets (TD Cowen) and $450 targets (Bernstein) on a ~12‑month horizon. 

Those are not modeling “BTC at $250k + 1M BTC on balance sheet.” Your scenario is a different universe — so the outputs are supposed to be way higher.

Final call (what you asked for)

If Strategy has 1,000,000 BTC and BTC is $250,000 on Dec 31, 2026:

My base-case prediction: ≈ $650/share

Reasonable range: ≈ $520 to $900

Moonshot range (if premium goes full psycho again): $1,300+

If you want, I can also do a clean “BTC-per-share” model where you tell me what you assume for end‑2026 diluted shares (e.g., 480M vs 560M) and what premium multiple you think the market will pay (1.2× vs 2.0×), and I’ll spit out a single-number target instantly.