—> investors who just do these diversified VOO, vanguard 500, typical S&P 500–> they’re just seeking to die a slow death? Or these “diversified†funds —> they seek equilibrium, but the 51% rule… slow death
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Invisible buildings and property
Bitcoin is global capital
Deepest capital markets in the world
276, 276, 276
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Superior yield
Better return
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0:00
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Howard Marks famously says, volatility is
not risk. Volatility is just vitality. It’s just the motion.
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Volatility is just the motion.
The best player on the court is the most volatile, LeBron James
The best person is the most volatile?
Bitcoin has the most energy
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Visualize M16
Move fast with a lot of energy, take risk.
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Logic
3-4x over SP500
2x over magnificent 7
over the past 4 years Bitcoin (49%
p.a.) is outperforming the S&P (14% p.a.) by about a factor of 3 to 4. It is doubling the performance of the Magnificent 7 (27%
p.a.). It’s 5x real estate v(10% p.a.), 7x gold (7% p.a.), and it’s utterly crushing bonds (-5% p.a.), which are just a disaster.
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49% PA, S&P is 14 PA
50-58% growth
Dominance
Go with the most dominant, NOT the underdog!
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Bitcoin is the bank which is too big to fail in cyberspace ***
ibit, Larry fink, black rock
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Backed by power *
700 exahash of computer power
18 gigawats
18 full on nuclear reactors
$800B Power for bank of Bitcoin
Bitcoin Banker
Second isn’t even 1% thus number,
99% into Bitcoin
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most important point is MicroStrategy invested $250mn in Bitcoin in August 2020. Since then, we’ve invested $9.9bn total.
9.9B in total invested
420M pro crypto people
The Google of money
Roll eyes is good
When I talk about investment thesis, what I say is, you
want to get rich, find something everybody needs, nobody can stop and nobody understands. If 9 out of 10 people disagree with
you, roll their eyes, or don’t get what I just said, that means that you’ve got a 10x or more gain in front of you
.
10x more gain in front of you
If you look at the performance of
Amazon now, it is the weakest of the Magnificent 7 investments, because everybody understood Amazon was a good idea in the
summer of 2020. That’s why it’s an awful investment idea.
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Superior yield ***
Awful investments now, when everyone thinks it is a good idea, today —
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Why I Love Investing
It has to deal with real life, the real world, real risk & return and joy?
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The birth of a new assset class?
implementation of mandatory fair value accounting in January 2025 is going to be another
big deal.
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Crystal ball, look into the future
Fair value accounting
Year zero
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2025–> the start, beginning of digital gold rush
Bitcoin, ChatGPT, Tesla cars –> the only things of the future which were promised which actually pulled through.?
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You’ve got 10 years to get Bitcoin before there’s no Bitcoin for you.
Only 10 years left! ***
2035
Once you get to January 1, 2035, you’ve
only got 1% of Bitcoin trickling out over 106 years. That’s less than MicroStrategy already owns. That “point99â€, as we call it, is
the point of reflexive supply shock. 99% of the Bitcoin will have been mined and sold into the open market by January 2, 2035.
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Insider info?
.99–106 years from now only less than 1% of Bitcoin will trickle out?
Basic people boring!
Supply becomes fixed … deflationary asset! ***
I’m excited to be alive 10 years from now
Bitcoin is hope, makes sense!
15th century and electricity and philosophy
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Capital appreciation
You’re going to capitalize your AI with Bitcoin.
AI & Bitcoin –> the only two good bets?
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The New Digital Monopolies: Bitcoin & AI
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My forecast
is the base case: Bitcoin appreciates from 0.1% of the assets in the world to 7%, it grows 29% ARR, we get $13 mn /Bitcoin by
the year 2045. A bear case is $3mn; a bull case is $49mn.
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$49M a Bitcoin by 2045,,, 20 years from now, when Seneca is 23…
Or $3m, or $13M
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7% of world assets
Modest projections?
Strategic, tactical
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Bitcoin Tactics
The tactics of Bitcoin
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Don’t die slowly!
take a risk or die quickly or die slowly.
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