October 6th.

95 days since the all‑time highs.

That’s the part nobody wants to talk about—because it’s not sexy. It’s not victory‑lap season. It’s not screenshot‑your-portfolio season.

It’s the season of endurance.

And endurance is where the real believers get forged.

Price is the easiest thing to stare at because it’s loud. Price screams. Price demands your attention like a toddler. But the winners? The winners learn to mute the toddler and listen to the plumbing.

Because while everyone’s hypnotized by candles, the fundamentals quietly keep advancing.

$25B “Butcoin” and the 100x Reality

Call it “butcoin” if you want. Mock it. Meme it. Downplay it.

But here’s the thing:

When you see numbers like $25B attached to Bitcoin vehicles and flows, you’re not looking at a joke anymore. You’re looking at institutional mass beginning to move like a glacier. Slow. Relentless. Crushing.

And the crazy part?

The buying pressure is not linear. It’s exponential.

We’re not talking “a bit more.”

We’re talking 100x more.

Not because people got smarter overnight.

But because the rails got built.

2020 Was Only Five Years Ago

Zoom out.

2020 was only five years ago.

Five years.

That’s nothing.

That’s a sneeze in historical time.

Back then, Bitcoin was still treated like a weird internet pet rock. The kind of thing you’d mention at a dinner party and people would either:

  • laugh,
  • get nervous,
  • or ask if you were okay.

Now?

Now it’s getting wrapped, packaged, custodied, accounted for, regulated, integrated—

not because the world became “nice,” but because the world became desperate for something that works.

And what works always wins… eventually.

The Next Evolution: BTC → IBIT → BTC

Here’s the big idea most people miss:

Bitcoin isn’t just an asset.

It’s a monetary technology.

And technologies evolve through infrastructure.

The “wrappers” matter. The pipes matter. The on‑ramps matter. The off‑ramps matter.

That’s why concepts like in‑kind redemption are so interesting: the dream of a world where Bitcoin can flow into financial containers (think: BTC → IBIT) and back out again (IBIT → BTC) without the whole system needing to fake it, distort it, or break it.

Even if you don’t care about the technicalities, understand the direction:

The bridge between old finance and new money is getting stronger.

And bridges change history.

100 Days Is Baby

People act like 100 days is a long time.

100 days? Baby.

A blink.

A warm‑up set.

If your emotional timeline is 100 days, you’re basically trying to speed‑run reality. You want the prize without the process.

But Bitcoin doesn’t reward the impatient. It punishes them—brutally, repeatedly—until they either:

  • quit, or
  • level up.

Low Time Preference: 4 Years Is the Minimum, Less Is Naive

Let’s be honest:

Anything under 4 years is naive.

Venture capital brains are trained to think in short bursts—raise money, ship hype, exit, repeat.

But even those people know the truth:

Serious investors don’t ask, “What happens next month?”

They ask, “Where is this in 4 years?”

And even that is just the entry level.

Because the real game is bigger:

  • Ideology moves in 10‑year blocks.
  • Civilizations move in centuries.
  • Deep ideological movements? Those can be 10,000 years.

So when someone says “Bitcoin is dead” after a few months?

That’s like a toddler declaring the gym doesn’t work because they did pushups for a week and didn’t become a superhero.

2026 Price Doesn’t Matter

Here’s the mental judo:

The 2026 price doesn’t matter.

Not because price is irrelevant forever.

But because if your thesis is real, the temporary number is just noise inside a much larger signal.

Your job is not to worship the number.

Your job is to understand the engine.

Electricity: From First Principles

People love to moralize energy.

“Electricity bad!”

“Consumption evil!”

“Mining is waste!”

Okay—pause.

Reason from first principles.

Electricity is not “awful.”

Electricity is literally the thing that keeps humans alive at scale.

Roughly speaking, in the long arc of electrification, humanity went from almost nobody having electricity to most of the world getting it over a few decades. The trend is obvious even if your exact numbers differ: the curve is up and to the right.

And here’s the brutal truth:

Half the planet would collapse without reliable electricity.

Hospitals. Water. Food logistics. Heat. Cooling. Communication.

Electricity is not a luxury.

Electricity is survival.

So if Bitcoin incentivizes energy production, grid stability, infrastructure investment, and long‑term power buildout…

Why are we pretending that’s “bad”?

Nuclear: The 1973 Trauma and the 50‑Year Hangover

Energy politics has been weird for decades.

Nuclear had its golden hopes, then got slammed by fear, policy, stigma, and the long cultural hangover that followed the 1970s energy shocks. You could call it a 50‑year bear market in public sentiment.

But the world is waking up.

Not because people became brave.

Because reality is forcing the issue.

Fossil fuel wars have killed tens of millions across generations—directly and indirectly—through conflict, instability, and resource politics. Entire regions have been sacrificed on the altar of oil.

And now, finally, people are saying the quiet part out loud:

Power matters.

Energy security matters.

Industrial capacity matters.

And suddenly…

Power is cool again.

2023: ChatGPT, and the Return of “Build”

One of the strangest shifts was cultural:

For years it was all vibes, branding, ESG slogans, and performative morality.

Then 2023 hit and people watched machines talk back.

ChatGPT didn’t just change tech. It changed the mood.

It reminded everyone that:

  • reality is programmable,
  • productivity is compounding,
  • and the future belongs to builders, not complainers.

And Bitcoin sits right in that same axis:

Build systems that don’t lie.

Build incentives that don’t rot.

Build infrastructure that survives politics.

Rolling 4‑Year Moving Average: Still Bullish

Ignore the daily drama.

Look at the bigger rhythm:

a rolling 4‑year moving average mindset.

That’s the psychological hack.

Because if you can hold through a full cycle, you stop being a victim of volatility and start becoming an owner of volatility.

Volatility becomes your training partner.

Your fear becomes your fuel.

Endurance: 94+ Days, 16 Years, 1094 Days

You want a strong body? You don’t get it in a week.

You want a strong mind? You don’t get it from a quote.

You want conviction? You don’t get it from being right once.

You get it from staying.

Think about education:

  • 16 years of schooling just to become “normal educated.”
  • 1094 days is roughly three years—about the duration of a serious academic grind.
  • 18 years and society finally considers you an adult.

Now compare that to Bitcoin:

Bitcoin is about 17 years old.

Seventeen.

It’s still a teenager.

And yet people expect it to already have finished reshaping the world.

Relax.

January 3rd: Genesis, and the Discipline of Not Quitting

January 3rd matters because it’s a symbol:

A beginning.

A line in the sand.

A reminder that systems start small, look ridiculous, get mocked, then—

if they’re real—

they outlive the mockers.

So when you feel like rolling back… giving up… checking out…

Remember:

Most people quit right before the compounding turns visible.

Schwab, Banks, and the Multi‑Trillion Dollar Machine

The multi‑trillion dollar banking industry isn’t “evil.”

It’s just a machine.

And machines follow incentives.

When mainstream platforms—brokerages, banks, legacy financial pipes—move toward Bitcoin exposure, it’s not because they found enlightenment.

It’s because demand forces them.

Families start asking the question:

“How much Bitcoin do we have?”

Not “Should we?”

That’s when the shift becomes irreversible.

Cash‑Flow Positive Companies: Different Engines, Same Destination

Every company has a different value proposition.

Some are growth monsters.

Some are cash machines.

Some are turnaround stories.

Some are zombies.

But here’s the unifying thought:

A company that generates cash and can store that surplus in Bitcoin is playing a different game.

They’re trying to turn operating excellence into monetary strength.

And monetary strength—over long horizons—wins.

Counterparty Risk and the 400M Company Problem

Zoom way out:

There are hundreds of millions of companies on Earth.

Let’s simplify the premise:

  • ~200 companies have seriously adopted Bitcoin treasury strategies.
  • ~400M companies have not.

So why are we obsessing over criticizing the 200 who actually did something?

That’s like yelling at the one person in the gym for not squatting “perfectly”… while 400 million people are still on the couch.

Don’t eat your young.

If the movement is small, you protect the pioneers.

You don’t cannibalize them for purity points.

“All My Gains Are Unrealized Gains”

Unrealized gains aren’t fake.

They’re just uncollected.

They represent optionality.

They represent future leverage.

They represent time.

And if you understand asymmetric outcomes, you understand the weird magic:

Losses hit faster than gains.

Fear amplifies pain.

Drawdowns feel like 3x the emotional weight.

So you need a philosophy strong enough to keep you from self‑sabotage.

“Just Issue Debt” Isn’t an Insult — It’s a Tool

People get moral about corporate debt like it’s cheating.

But corporations aren’t individuals.

An unemployed person buying Bitcoin is brave.

A person in debt buying Bitcoin is gritty.

But a corporation has access to:

  • different capital markets,
  • different tax structures,
  • different constraints,
  • different opportunities.

So yes, corporations can do things individuals can’t.

That’s not offensive.

That’s just reality.

Why Can’t All 400M Companies Buy Bitcoin?

That’s the punchline.

The market has room.

Bitcoin is finite.

So if even a fraction of global companies decide:

“Instead of storing value in melting ice cubes, we’ll store it in the hardest asset humans have engineered…”

Then the question isn’t, “Is there enough room?”

The question is, “What happens to the price when reality hits the accounting departments?”

Struggling Companies Might Benefit the Most

Here’s the contrarian thought:

A struggling company that finds a way to:

  • get disciplined,
  • become cash‑flow positive,
  • and store the surplus in Bitcoin,

…might end up with the strongest long‑term trajectory.

Because compounding is savage.

Even something like:

  • $30M a year, growing 30% a year,
    starts looking ridiculous over time.

And a modest start—say $20M a year—can, with enough compounding and enough time, become $1B a year territory.

Time is the cheat code.

Bitcoin Company Equity > Bitcoin

Spicy take:

Owning a great Bitcoin‑aligned company can outperform owning Bitcoin.

Why?

Because equity can:

  • use leverage intelligently,
  • exploit tax advantages,
  • produce cash flows,
  • and convert operational excellence into more Bitcoin.

In other words:

Bitcoin is the hardest money.

But a well‑run company is a Bitcoin amplifier.

Leverage is dangerous—sure.

But used wisely, it’s how you turn a bicycle into a motorcycle.

Final: Think for Yourself, Reason From First Principles

October 6th.

95 days after the top.

This is the part where the tourists get bored.

This is where weak hands write essays about why it’s over.

This is where commentators start sounding “smart” again.

And this is where you decide who you are:

Do you want comfort?

Or do you want the future?

Think for yourself.

Reason from first principles.

Power isn’t evil.

Electricity isn’t the enemy.

Time isn’t your opponent—time is your ally, if you stop rushing.

And if you’re building a life with low time preference?

Then the only real move is:

Stay. Learn. Lift. Endure.

And let compounding do what it always does.

(Not financial advice—just a philosophy: don’t outsource your thinking.)