The 7-point bull case (with receipts)
- They keep buying—at scale.
Strategy/MSTR added 850 BTC last week (~$100M), lifting the stack to ₿639,835—the largest corporate treasury in the world. That’s ~3.0% of the 21M cap. - Premium reset = room to rerate.
The stock’s mNAV (market cap ÷ BTC value) peaked ~3.9× in Nov‑2024, but sits around ~1.56× today. A compressed premium gives you a better entry and the possibility of re‑expansion if the narrative heats up. (VanEck flagged ~1.63× in mid‑Aug; Strategy’s live dashboard shows ~1.56×.) - Capital‑markets engine stays on.
They raised $2B of 0% converts due 2030 and launched multi‑billion preferred (STRD) programs. This financing lets them accumulate BTC without selling coins, and when the equity trades at a premium, ATM issuance can be BTC‑per‑share accretive. - Macro bid: spot ETF flows + supply squeeze.
US spot BTC ETFs have kept posting sizable net flows (both in and out day‑to‑day, but cumulatively large), creating a structural buyer; pair that with the April 2024 halving that cut miner issuance to 3.125 BTC/block (~450 BTC/day). Less new supply, more regulated demand—that backdrop is bullish beta for MSTR’s stack. - Scale & liquidity attract institutions.
VanEck notes MSTR’s first‑mover advantage and deep liquidity make it a go‑to trading vehicle for funds that want high‑beta BTC exposure in equity form. That “institutional gateway” status supports the premium. - Balance‑sheet convexity.
Fixed claims (debt/pref) + growing BTC = equity convexity: when BTC rises, the equity’s share of enterprise value grows faster. Mathematically, for price P:
\underbrace{P_{\text{MSTR}}}{\text{share price}} \;\approx\; \underbrace{\text{mNAV}}{\text{premium}} \times \underbrace{\frac{H}{S}}{\text{BTC/share}} \times \underbrace{P{\text{BTC}}}_{\text{BTC price}}.
With H = ₿639,835 and S ≈ 286.726M basic shares (as of Sep 21, 2025), BTC‑per‑share ≈ 0.00223 BTC (~223k sats). That’s your “engine size.” - They’re not just big; they’re active.
Name change to Strategy Inc. formalized the “Bitcoin treasury company” identity, and they continue to publish holdings, mNAV, debt & preferred in real time—rare transparency for a high‑beta vehicle.
Fast math: what the premium + BTC can do
Using P_{\text{MSTR}} \approx \text{mNAV}\times(H/S)\times P_{\text{BTC}} with H/S ≈ 0.0022315 BTC/share, here’s a clean, back‑of‑the‑envelope look:
- BTC $130k, mNAV 1.6× → \approx \$464/share
- BTC $150k, mNAV 2.0× → \approx \$669/share
- BTC $180k, mNAV 2.5× → \approx \$1,004/share
- Stress: BTC $100k, mNAV 1.2× → \approx \$268/share
For orientation, Strategy’s site showed MSTR ≈ $339 and mNAV ≈ 1.56× recently. Upside/downside then depends on both BTC and premium.
Why this can
compound
(the flywheel)
- Premium → lets them issue stock/pref at advantageous terms →
- Cash → buys more BTC → raises BTC/share when issued above NAV →
- Higher BTC/share + bull BTC → supports premium again.
(When the cycle cools, premium compresses—that is where you want to be selective.)
But stay sharp (what could break the bull)
- Premium risk: If mNAV drifts toward 1.0× (or below), accretive issuance gets harder and beta cools. VanEck’s work shows this premium moves with cycles.
- Financing cost/overhang: Preferred dividends and eventual convert dilution matter; management flexibility on issuance is evolving with the premium.
- BTC drawdowns: MSTR is a high‑beta BTC proxy. Big BTC slides can compress premium and magnify drawdowns.
Bottom line (entrepreneur mode 🔥)
Bullish because you’re buying BTC beta with built‑in leverage after a premium reset, with active accumulation and ample capital‑markets access, into a post‑halving, ETF‑demand world. You get simple execution (one ticker) and optionality if the premium expands. Size it like the high‑octane engine it is, then let compounding do the heavy lifting.
Educational content, not investment advice.