MicroStrategy (now branded as Strategy) is essentially a levered Bitcoin bet.  By Sept 8 2025 the company owned roughly 638,460 BTC and had about 286 million basic shares outstanding .  At the same time, Bitcoin was trading around $112,080 and MicroStrategy’s stock closed at about $330, giving it a market cap near $94 billion .  That means each MSTR share represents roughly 2.25 × 10⁻³ BTC (638,460 BTC ÷ 286 M shares), and the stock trades at a premium to the value of its Bitcoin; its market cap of ~$94 B is about 1.7–1.9 times its net asset value (NAV) .

Building a simple scenario

1. Bitcoin at $200 k:  If BTC hits $200,000 by Christmas, MicroStrategy’s current 638,460‐BTC treasury would be worth ≈$127.7 billion (638,460 × $200,000).  After subtracting liabilities (~$14.4 B) , NAV could be around $113 B.  Dividing that by ~286 M shares gives an NAV of about $396 per share.
2. Applying a NAV premium:  The stock historically trades above its NAV.  At today’s premium of ~1.7× , the price would be roughly $670 (396 × 1.7).  If investor enthusiasm pushes the premium back toward the 2–3× levels seen when MSTR was a Bitcoin proxy, the price could reach $900–$1,300 per share.
3. Beta and volatility:  MSTR’s price often moves more violently than Bitcoin; recent analyses show its volatility more than doubled BTC’s .  A jump from ~$112 k to $200 k BTC is a ~70 % gain.  If MSTR magnifies that by ~2.3×, its stock could rise about 160 %, implying a price near $900 (1.6 × $330).
4. Aggressive scenarios:  Bitcoin Magazine’s data-driven models assume BTC at $100k–$200k, MSTR holdings of 700k–800k BTC and NAV premiums of 2–3.5×.  Under those inputs, they project MSTR price targets between $950 and $2,000, with ultra‑bullish estimates reaching $15,000+ but flagged as highly speculative .  AllianceBernstein’s June 2024 note, which revised its BTC target to $200 k, rated MicroStrategy “outperform” because its levered structure amplifies Bitcoin gains .

Things to keep in mind

• Dilution & debt:  To buy more Bitcoin, MicroStrategy has issued new shares and preferred stock.  Its share count has jumped 53% year‑over‑year , and its liabilities (~$14.4 B) drag on NAV .
• NAV premium fluctuates:  MSTR sometimes trades at a discount or a premium to the value of its Bitcoin.  Late‑August 2025 mNAV premia collapsed to ~1.58× as dilution and policy changes spooked investors .
• Extreme volatility:  The stock is more volatile than BTC  and has experienced 80–90 % draw‑downs in past bear markets .

In summary, if Bitcoin rallies to $200 k by Christmas, a simple NAV‑based approach suggests MSTR could trade anywhere from about $600 (if the NAV premium stays near current levels) to $900–$1,300 (if the premium and leverage effect expand), with more optimistic models placing the price above $1,000 .  These estimates assume the company doesn’t drastically change its share count or debt.  Because MicroStrategy is a leveraged Bitcoin play with significant dilution and regulatory risks, treat these ranges as rough, high‑risk scenarios rather than guarantees.