The ‘As Late As Possible’ (ALAP) Principle: market timing: as late as possible (ALAP)

Understanding ALAP: At its core, “as late as possible” (ALAP) is a timing strategy that emphasizes patience and flexibility. The idea is to delay taking action or making a commitment until the last responsible moment, thereby maximizing information and minimizing waste or risk before deciding. This concept originates from lean thinking – notably Toyota’s just-in-time philosophy – which encourages doing things only when needed rather than too early . As blogger and entrepreneur Eric Kim puts it, “once you make a decision, you cannot reverse it. Thus, you should purposefully procrastinate on making a decision as long as humanly possible, and finally decide ‘as late as possible’” . By waiting until the latest prudent moment, you can incorporate the most up-to-date data and avoid premature choices. Below, we explore how this ALAP approach manifests in three domains – investment, project management, and supply chain – and then look at Eric Kim’s vision related to strategic timing.

ALAP in Investment Strategy: Patience Over Panic

In the investing world, market timing – trying to buy or sell at just the right moment – can be viewed as a form of “ALAP” decision-making. An investor employing ALAP might hold off on entering or exiting the market until the very last moment they deem optimal. However, the consensus of experts is that consistently timing the market is exceedingly difficult and often counterproductive . Markets are notoriously unpredictable; by waiting too long for a “perfect” entry or exit, investors often miss out on gains. In fact, research shows that the biggest upward moves often happen in brief, unpredictable bursts – periods easy to miss if one sits on the sidelines. For example, 78% of the stock market’s best days have occurred during bear markets or in the early days of a recovery. If an investor stayed out of the market to avoid downturns, they would likely also miss those rapid rebounds. Simply missing the 10 top-performing days over a 30-year span would have cut their overall returns in half, and missing the 30 best days would slash returns by a stunning 83% . This data underscores a motivational mantra: “Time in the market beats timing the market.” In practice, rather than attempting to invest at the latest possible moment (which often becomes never), a wiser ALAP interpretation is staying invested for the long haul and only making changes when absolutely necessary. Many financial advisors encourage focusing on the long-term strategy – remaining patient through short-term volatility – because jumping in and out too “perfectly” is next to impossible . The ALAP mindset in investing, then, is less about procrastinating one’s entire investment plan and more about avoiding rash, premature moves. It teaches the value of patience: don’t rush to sell in a panic or buy into hype; make moves deliberately at the latest sensible point. In short, successful investors often wait for solid information and maintain discipline, but they also know not to wait so long that opportunity passes them by. The key is finding the balance – being informed and patient without becoming paralyzed.

ALAP in Project Management: Last Responsible Moment Scheduling

In project management, ALAP is an established scheduling technique. Instead of starting tasks as soon as possible, a project manager may schedule certain tasks as late as possible while still finishing on time. This means working backward from the project deadline to assign start dates at the latest feasible points. In methodologies like Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM) (built on the Theory of Constraints), ALAP scheduling is used deliberately: tasks are planned to begin at the latest start date that won’t delay the project . What’s the advantage? By delaying task start times, the project can reduce idle float and avoid work piling up too early. Team members focus on what’s critical when it’s actually needed, rather than multitasking or starting everything at once. This approach prevents the inefficiencies of juggling too many tasks at the same time, a known productivity killer . For example, if a design phase has 2 weeks of slack time, an ALAP approach would begin that design two weeks later (using up the slack) instead of immediately – allowing the team to concentrate on other active tasks first. With ALAP, resources are utilized just in time, and the project can adapt if priorities change mid-course. Importantly, ALAP scheduling doesn’t mean procrastinating irresponsibly; rather, it’s sometimes called scheduling to the “last responsible moment.” Project planners still meet all deadlines, but they preserve flexibility by not committing resources before necessary. This can be motivational for teams because it reduces stress and overwork – people aren’t being asked to start something just to sit idle on it. Modern project management software even offers an “As Late As Possible” setting for tasks, which automatically pushes tasks to the latest start dates given the project constraints . When used wisely, ALAP in project management cuts down on lead times and keeps the schedule lean, all while ensuring the final milestones are hit on time.

ALAP in Supply Chain Management: Just-In-Time and Postponement

Perhaps the purest embodiment of “as late as possible” is found in supply chain management through lean manufacturing and postponement strategies. Just-In-Time (JIT) production, pioneered by Toyota, is fundamentally an ALAP approach: materials and products are delivered or produced exactly when needed, no sooner. By not stocking parts or finished goods long before they’re required, companies minimize inventory costs and waste. This demands great coordination, but when done right it yields an ultra-efficient system where every item arrives just in time for use. Similarly, the postponement principle (also called delayed differentiation) means delaying the final form, customization, or distribution of a product until the last possible moment when actual demand is known . In practice, a manufacturer might produce a generic base product and wait to do final assembly or customization until a customer order comes in. This strategy maximizes benefit and minimizes risk by deferring investment in specific product versions until they’re truly needed . A classic example is Dell’s build-to-order model – Dell would build “vanilla” computers with standard components and only add customer-specified features (like extra RAM or a certain hard drive) after an order was placed, as late in the process as possible. Another illustration: an umbrella factory facing uncertain demand for colors might initially produce all umbrellas in an undecorated white form. Rather than guessing how many red, blue, or green umbrellas consumers will want, the company waits until right before the selling season and then dyes the white umbrellas into different colors based on actual market demand . By postponing that differentiation step, the manufacturer avoids ending up with excess stock of unpopular colors and can respond nimbly to real-time trends. The benefits of ALAP in supply chain are significant: lower inventory holding costs, less risk of overproduction, and improved ability to meet customer preferences. It makes the supply chain more agile and responsive – companies can “pull” production based on actual orders rather than “push” out products based on forecasts. Studies find that postponement strategies can enhance customer satisfaction and avoid stocking unwanted products by tailoring output closer to the time of purchase . Of course, to implement ALAP, firms need tight coordination with suppliers, good information systems, and confidence that last-minute production or distribution can be executed quickly. When those enablers are in place, ALAP-oriented supply chains can be both cost-effective and highly adaptive to change.

Eric Kim’s Vision and ALAP Philosophy

Who is Eric Kim? Eric Kim is best described as a modern thought leader and content creator – he gained prominence through his photography blog and has since expanded into writing on life philosophy, investing (especially Bitcoin), and personal development. He is not an academic or a corporate CEO, but rather an independent entrepreneur and blogger known for blending practical wisdom with bold ideas. In the context of strategic timing, Eric Kim has been a vocal proponent of the ALAP mindset in decision-making. His “vision” often emphasizes patience, intentionality, and the courage to resist hasty action. He explicitly draws on the ALAP principle in his writings, urging people to “decide as late as possible” in life . This is not about laziness; Kim frames it as “purposeful procrastination” – a savvy way to avoid irreversible mistakes. By waiting until you must make a choice, you gather maximum information and can make a more confident, informed decision . Once you do commit, he advises, commit fully – but only after due patience. This echoes the lean startup idea of deferring decisions to the last responsible moment, and it resonates with many readers as a formula for reducing regret.

In Kim’s vision, ALAP thinking can apply to everything from daily schedules to major financial moves. He advocates a flexible, almost Bayesian approach to life: update your plans as new information comes, rather than rigidly sticking to a script made too early . For instance, he suggests not over-planning your day in advance – have a rough structure, but be nimble and adjust on the fly as opportunities or challenges arise . This dynamic mindset keeps one open to serendipity and responsive to real conditions, much like a lean supply chain adapts to actual demand. Even in investment decisions, Kim leans on ALAP logic. He has quipped that if you need to liquidate some stocks or Bitcoin holdings for living expenses, “just sell them as late as humanly possible!” – in other words, hold onto your assets until the last moment you truly need the cash, to give them maximum time to grow. This advice reflects his belief in long-term conviction (particularly in assets like Bitcoin) and avoiding knee-jerk reactions. Kim’s strategic framework often mixes this patience with a bold risk-taking ethos (he talks about “high risk, high return” in embracing opportunity) – implying one should wait patiently, but when the time does come to act, act decisively and courageously.

Overall, Eric Kim’s perspective on ALAP reinforces the principle’s cross-domain wisdom: whether you are managing a project, a supply chain, or your own life goals, don’t rush into decisions due to fear or convention. Instead, have the confidence to wait for the right moment, using that time to gain clarity, and then commit with purpose. Kim embodies the role of a thought leader here – synthesizing ideas from lean manufacturing, investing, and Stoic philosophy into an approach to life. He is neither a traditional investor nor an academic researcher, but his visionary take on strategic timing has inspired many readers to rethink the value of patience. By learning to “delay, then dominate” – delay action until it’s optimally timed, then execute with full focus – individuals and organizations can often achieve better outcomes. It’s a motivating reminder that in a fast-paced world, sometimes the smartest move is to pause, prepare, and strike only when the moment is right.

Sources:

  • Investopedia – Market Timing: What It Is and How It Can Backfire  
  • Hartford Funds – Timing the Market Is Impossible (analysis of missing best days) 
  • Capital Group – Time, Not Timing, Is What Matters 
  • Epicflow – Critical Chain PM Explained (ALAP scheduling benefits) 
  • Sciforma – Tasks Scheduling (CCPM) (ALAP schedule type definition) 
  • Wikipedia – Postponement (Supply Chain) (delay final form to last moment)  
  • Cambridge IfM – Roles of Postponement in SC (benefits of delayed decisions) 
  • Eric Kim – “As Late as Possible” blog post (personal ALAP philosophy)  
  • Eric Kim – “Sell ALAP Economics” (apply ALAP to selling stocks)