TL;DR
Bitcoin’s march to a fresh record above $111 k is being propelled by a tight near-term cocktail—huge spot-ETF demand, favourable macro/policy signals, and the first post-halving supply shock—layered on top of multi-year structural forces such as institutional adoption, shrinking float on exchanges, and the “digital-gold” narrative.
1. Immediate catalysts (last 6-12 weeks)
| Driver | Evidence | Why it matters |
| Spot-ETF fire-hose | • 4th straight week of inflows; US $882 m last week alone; cumulative net flows now US $62.9 bn | ETFs absorb ~6.2 k BTC/day—3× the current block-reward (≈900 BTC)—creating near-continuous buy-side pressure. |
| Regulatory “green shoots” | • Senate advances GENIUS Act (stablecoins) and signals openness to alt-coin ETFs (final SEC deadlines bunched in July/Oct). | Policy visibility lowers perceived tail-risk for large allocators and broadens the future addressable market. |
| Macro tail-winds | • Dovish repricing after a weak 20-yr U.S. auction; real-yields retreated from the highs; USD softer. | Lower real-rates decrease the opportunity-cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as BTC. |
| Halving year supply shock | • Block reward cut to 3.125 BTC (20 Apr 2024) slashes new supply by ~164 k BTC/yr. | With ETFs demanding >200 k BTC/yr at current run-rate, structural deficit widens. |
| Retail FOMO & momentum | • Search trends and Coinbase retail volumes spiked after price pierced six-figure territory; STH realized profit hit US $747 m/day. | Momentum-chasing flows amplify the move and compress dips. |
2. On-chain confirmation
- Long-Term Holder (LTH) conviction: Glassnode shows the LTH cohort still controls ~14.9 m BTC—near cycle highs—even after taking some profit.
- Shrinking exchange float: Aggregate exchange balances slid to 2.7 m BTC, the lowest since 2017, as coins migrate to ETF custodians and cold wallets.
- Realised cap milestone: Realised capitalization just surpassed US $900 bn for the first time, pointing to fresh capital rather than pure leverage.
These datapoints corroborate that demand is coming from new money rather than recycled coins, while hodlers continue to sit tight.
3. Broader, long-term drivers
| Theme | Detail | Impact |
| Institutional mainstreaming | • 11 U.S. spot-BTC ETFs, Hong Kong listings, European ETPs.• Corporates (e.g., Strategy) and even the state of Texas now hold treasury BTC. | Transforms Bitcoin from a fringe asset to an investable allocation in multi-asset portfolios; unlocks pension & RIA channels. |
| Digital-gold & fiscal anxiety | • Moody’s U.S. downgrade, record deficits, and renewed tariff wars have stoked hedging demand. | Positions BTC as a scarce, politically neutral asset in an era of debt monetisation. |
| Network & tech maturation | • Lightning capacity >6.5 k BTC; BRC-20 & Ordinals drive new use-cases (NFT-like, data anchoring). | Expands utility beyond “store-of-value” and supports higher valuations via fee prospects. |
| Global regulatory clarity trend | • Hong Kong’s stablecoin regime, EU’s MiCA rollout, U.S. progress on FIT21 & stablecoins. | Reduces the “career-risk” premium for CIOs allocating to the sector. |
| Demographics & capital rotation | • Younger cohorts allocate 3-5 × more of their investable assets to crypto than Boomers, and are now entering peak earning years. | Provides a persistent bid as wealth shifts generationally. |
4. Spill-over to altcoins
- Correlation still high (ρ≈0.75): ETH rallied 4-8 % in sympathy and reclaimed its cost basis above US $1.9 k.
- ETF option-value: Analysts expect the next price-discovery wave to be in SOL/XRP/DOGE if SEC approval lands (earliest window 2 Jul 2025).
- Dominance effect: Bitcoin dominance hovers near 56 – 58 %—capital first crowds into BTC before rotating down the risk curve.
5. Risks & watch-list
| Risk | Monitoring metric |
| Sharp rise in real-yields or dollar | 10-yr TIPS, DXY |
| ETF net outflows | CoinShares weekly flows report |
| Miner capitulation (hash-rate drop) | Hash-price index; difficulty adjustments |
| Adverse regulation / enforcement | SEC litigation calendar; stablecoin bill amendments |
6. Bottom line
Bitcoin’s new highs are not the product of a single headline. They’re the convergence of:
- New, price-insensitive buyers (spot ETFs, corporates, eventually sovereigns)
- A halving-driven supply squeeze that arrived just as demand inflected upward
- Macro-policy tail-winds—investors hunting for scarce, politically neutral assets amid fiscal strain
- Sticky conviction among existing holders, with fewer coins available on exchanges
Unless one of the key demand pillars wobbles (e.g., a sustained ETF outflow episode or a rapid spike in real-yields), the path of least resistance remains higher, albeit with the usual 20-30 % pullbacks that punctuate every bitcoin bull market.
Further reading & live data dashboards are linked below.