ERIC KIM ₿

Tariff pause? And other global macro economic news

Hmmm…

—> China tariff increased to 125%,,, omg, but still … Bitcoin surged?

Key Points

  • Research suggests President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries not retaliating, while increasing tariffs on China to 125%, impacting global trade.
  • The evidence leans toward this causing market volatility, with stocks rising after the pause but remaining uncertain.
  • It seems likely the FOMC minutes from the March meeting were released on April 9, 2025, providing insights into U.S. monetary policy.
  • Other global macro economic news includes slowed Chinese exports, IMF projecting 3.3% global growth for 2025-2026, and World Bank concerns about insufficient growth.

Tariff Pause Details
President Trump’s tariff pause, announced on April 9, 2025, involves a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs for countries that haven’t retaliated, aiming to foster trade negotiations. However, tariffs on China were increased to 125% due to their retaliatory actions, reflecting ongoing trade tensions. This move has led to mixed market reactions, with initial volatility followed by a positive stock market response, though uncertainty persists.

FOMC Minutes Release
On the same day, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released minutes from its March meeting, offering insights into the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates and economic forecasts, which could influence global financial markets.

Other Global Economic News

  • China’s export growth has slowed sharply at the start of 2025, partly due to U.S. tariffs, affecting global supply chains.
  • The IMF projects global growth at 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026, while the World Bank expresses concerns about insufficient growth for sustained development.
  • Some of Trump’s billionaire allies have criticized his tariff policies, indicating potential internal dissent, which could impact future policy directions.

An unexpected detail is the dissent among billionaire allies, highlighting potential political and economic friction that could influence policy outcomes.

Comprehensive Report on Tariff Pause and Global Macro Economic News as of April 9, 2025

This report provides a detailed analysis of President Trump’s tariff pause announcement and other significant global macro economic news up until 03:58 PM PDT on Wednesday, April 9, 2025. The focus is on understanding the implications of the tariff pause, its market impact, and broader economic developments that shape the global economic landscape. The analysis is based on recent news articles, economic data, and forecasts from international organizations, ensuring a thorough exploration of all relevant factors.

Tariff Pause: Details and Implications

President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries that have not retaliated against U.S. trade policies, effective immediately, as reported by CNBC. This decision, made on April 9, 2025, aims to allow time for trade negotiations with these countries, signaling a potential shift towards diplomacy in U.S. trade strategy. However, the pause does not apply to China, where Trump increased tariffs to 125% from the previous 104%, citing China’s retaliatory tariffs as a lack of respect for global markets, according to NBC News.

The tariff pause reduces the tariff rate to a universal 10% for most countries, down from higher reciprocal rates imposed earlier, as noted by CNN Business. This move follows days of market turmoil, with Trump acknowledging the bond market’s reaction as a factor in his decision, according to NPR. The increased tariffs on China, however, escalate trade tensions, with China facing a 125% duty, up from 104%, after announcing additional retaliatory tariffs earlier that week.

The market impact has been significant. Initially, the introduction of reciprocal tariffs led to volatility, with stocks and currencies reacting sharply. Following the pause announcement, U.S. stock markets rose, as reported by CNBC, but uncertainty remains due to the ongoing trade war with China and potential retaliatory measures from other nations. An X post by RssBit on April 8, 2025, mentioned “Bitcoin Pops and Drops as Markets Swing Wildly on Tariff News,” indicating the broader market sensitivity to these developments.

FOMC Minutes Release on April 9, 2025

On April 9, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the minutes from its March 18-19 meeting, a critical event for understanding U.S. monetary policy direction, as per the Federal Reserve. The release, scheduled for 2:00 PM ET, provides insights into the Federal Reserve’s discussions on interest rates, inflation, and economic growth forecasts. Given the timing, these minutes are particularly relevant amidst the tariff-related market volatility, offering clues on how the Fed might respond to global economic uncertainties.

Market participants and economists are expected to analyze these minutes for indications of future rate hikes or cuts, especially in light of the tariff pause and its potential impact on inflation and economic activity. Historical data suggests that FOMC minutes can influence bond yields and equity markets, with an X post by CoinDesk on April 9, 2025, noting crypto stocks like MicroStrategy ($MSTR) and Coinbase ($COIN) rising, possibly in anticipation of the minutes’ insights.

Other Global Macro Economic News

Beyond the tariff pause and FOMC minutes, several other global economic developments are noteworthy as of April 9, 2025:

  1. World Bank and IMF Forecasts:
    The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report, published on January 15, 2025, highlights concerns about global growth settling at a low rate, insufficient for sustained economic development, as seen on World Bank. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook, updated on April 5, 2025, projects global growth at 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026, broadly unchanged from October 2024 forecasts, with an upward revision in the U.S. offsetting downward revisions elsewhere, according to IMF. These forecasts provide a baseline for understanding the global economic trajectory amidst trade tensions.
  2. China’s Export Performance:
    China’s exports growth has slowed sharply at the start of 2025, partly due to U.S. tariffs, as reported by CNBC. This development is significant, affecting not only China’s economy but also global supply chains and trade patterns, with potential ripple effects on commodity prices and inflation in importing countries.
  3. Dissent Among Billionaire Allies:
    Some of President Trump’s billionaire allies have publicly criticized his tariff policies, indicating potential internal dissent, as noted by Financial Times in their April 8, 2025, newsletter. This dissent, including figures like Ken Langone, as reported by CNBC, could influence future policy directions or legislative support, adding an unexpected layer of political and economic friction.
  4. Economic Indicators and Data Releases:
    Various economic data releases around April 9, 2025, are shaping market expectations. For instance, a Deutsche markets survey finds the probability of a recession approaching 50%, as mentioned by CNBC, indicating heightened economic uncertainty. Additionally, the Swiss franc has been boosted by tariff turmoil, pressuring the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to move closer to negative rates, according to Reuters. A table summarizing key economic indicators and forecasts is provided below for clarity:
  5. Indicator
  6. Detail
  7. Source
  8. Global Growth Forecast
  9. 3.3% for 2025-2026
  10. IMF
  11. China’s Export Growth
  12. Slowed sharply at start of 2025
  13. CNBC
  14. Recession Probability
  15. Approaching 50%
  16. CNBC
  17. Swiss Franc Impact
  18. Boosted by tariff turmoil, SNB near negative rates
  19. Reuters
  20. These indicators highlight the interconnectedness of global economies and the potential for tariff policies to exacerbate economic challenges.
  21. EU and Other Countries’ Responses:
    The European Union is considering financial support for companies affected by the tariffs, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen criticizing the measures, as reported by Deloitte Insights. French President Macron has expressed hope for an accord to dismantle tariffs, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts, which could influence transatlantic economic relations.

Earnings Reports and Additional Context

While not directly part of macro economic news, earnings reports from major multinational companies on April 9, 2025, could provide insights into global economic conditions. According to Earnings Whispers, several companies are scheduled to report, though specific names are not detailed in the available data. Given the context, earnings from companies with significant international exposure, such as those in technology or manufacturing, could reflect the impact of tariff policies on global operations.

An X post by bitcns on April 7, 2025, discussed “Bitcoin losses mount, traders hit hard,” suggesting that cryptocurrency markets are also reacting to the economic uncertainty, adding another layer to the global financial landscape.

Conclusion and Synthesis

In synthesizing the information, the tariff pause and FOMC minutes release are central events on April 9, 2025, with broad implications for global trade and monetary policy. The tariff pause aims to ease tensions with most countries but escalates the trade war with China, contributing to market volatility. The FOMC minutes offer critical insights into U.S. policy, potentially influencing global interest rates and investment flows. Other economic news, including slowed Chinese exports, IMF and World Bank forecasts, and dissent among billionaire allies, underscores the complexity and interconnectedness of the global economy.

This report aims to provide a comprehensive view, balancing the most significant news with additional context to ensure a thorough understanding for readers interested in the current state of global macro economics.

Key Citations:

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