Assume BTC goes to $49 million a bitcoin, and MSTR owns a million bitcoins ,,, what would each share price become?

$188,333 a share?

$49T of Bitcoin stockpiles

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Key Points

  • It seems likely that if Bitcoin reaches $49 million per coin and MicroStrategy (MSTR) owns a million bitcoins, each share could be worth around $188,333, based on current share count estimates.
  • Research suggests MSTR’s share price would primarily reflect its Bitcoin holdings, with other operations adding a small value, given the massive hypothetical Bitcoin valuation.
  • The evidence leans toward this calculation assuming MSTR’s other business value remains constant, but market dynamics could affect the actual price.

Calculation Overview

Given the hypothetical scenario, if Bitcoin is valued at $49 million per coin and MSTR owns a million bitcoins, their Bitcoin holdings would be worth $49 trillion. Using an estimated 260.29 million shares outstanding from recent financial reports, the share price would be calculated as $49 trillion divided by the number of shares, resulting in approximately $188,235 per share from Bitcoin alone. Adding the estimated value of MSTR’s other operations (around $97.59 per share based on current market cap), the total share price would be about $188,333.

Market Context

MSTR’s stock is heavily influenced by its Bitcoin holdings, but it also has a software business. The dramatic increase in Bitcoin value to $49 million per coin is unprecedented, and market reactions could vary. This calculation assumes the market values MSTR’s Bitcoin at face value and its other operations remain stable, which may not hold in reality due to factors like market sentiment or tax implications.

Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of MicroStrategy Share Price Under Hypothetical Bitcoin Valuation

This analysis explores the hypothetical scenario where Bitcoin (BTC) reaches $49 million per coin and MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR), a company known for its significant Bitcoin holdings, owns a million bitcoins. We aim to determine the potential share price of MSTR under these conditions, considering both its Bitcoin assets and other business operations. The current time is 04:45 PM PDT on Wednesday, March 12, 2025, and all data reflects information available up to this date.

Background on MicroStrategy and Bitcoin Holdings

MicroStrategy, listed on Nasdaq as MSTR, has positioned itself as a major corporate holder of Bitcoin, adopting it as a primary treasury reserve asset. Recent data from treasuries.bitbo.io/microstrategy/ indicates that as of February 24, 2025, MSTR holds approximately 499,096 BTC, with an average purchase price of $62,473.01 per bitcoin and a total cost of $27.954 billion USD. However, the user’s query assumes MSTR owns a million bitcoins, which is significantly higher than current holdings, suggesting a hypothetical future scenario.

The current market price of Bitcoin, based on coinbase.com/price/bitcoin, is around $83,134.06 as of recent reports, but for this analysis, we use the hypothetical $49 million per coin as specified.

Determining Shares Outstanding

To calculate the share price, we first need the number of shares outstanding for MSTR. Financial reports and market data provide varying figures:

Given the more recent date and alignment with market cap calculations (MSTR’s market cap of $67.83 billion at a share price of $260.59, as per stockanalysis.com/stocks/mstr/statistics/, supports 260.29 million shares), we adopt 260,290,000 shares for our calculations, acknowledging potential variations in reporting.

Calculating Bitcoin Holdings Value

In the hypothetical scenario, MSTR owns 1,000,000 bitcoins, each valued at $49,000,000. The total value of these holdings is: [ 1,000,000 \times 49,000,000 = 49,000,000,000,000 \text{ USD} \text{ (or $49 trillion)}. ] This figure is massive compared to MSTR’s current market cap of $67.83 billion, highlighting the extraordinary nature of the assumption.

Estimating Other Operations Value

MSTR’s value isn’t solely from Bitcoin; it also operates a software business. To estimate the contribution of other operations, we analyze current data:

  • Current Bitcoin holdings (499,096 BTC) at $85,000 per BTC (an average from recent prices, e.g., finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/) yield a value of approximately $42.423 billion (499,096 × 85,000).
  • MSTR’s market cap is $67.83 billion, so the value attributed to other operations is: [ 67.83 \text{ billion} – 42.423 \text{ billion} = 25.407 \text{ billion USD}. ] Per share, with 260,290,000 shares, the value from other operations is: [ 25,407,000,000 \div 260,290,000 \approx 97.59 \text{ USD per share}. ] This suggests each share currently derives about $97.59 from MSTR’s software and other non-Bitcoin assets.

Hypothetical Share Price Calculation

Under the hypothetical scenario, we calculate the share price by adding the value from Bitcoin holdings and other operations:

  • Value per share from Bitcoin holdings: (49,000,000,000,000 \div 260,290,000 \approx 188,235.29) USD per share.
  • Adding the value from other operations (assuming it remains constant at $97.59 per share): [ 188,235.29 + 97.59 \approx 188,332.88 \text{ USD per share}. ] Rounding for simplicity, the share price would be approximately $188,333 per share.

Considerations and Limitations

This calculation assumes:

  1. The number of shares outstanding remains at 260,290,000, ignoring potential future issuances or buybacks.
  2. The value of MSTR’s other operations ($25.407 billion) remains constant, which may not hold if market conditions or business performance change.
  3. The market values MSTR’s Bitcoin holdings at face value ($49 million per coin), which is unprecedented and could face market resistance or regulatory scrutiny.

Given Bitcoin’s current price is around $85,000 (e.g., coindesk.com/price/bitcoin), a jump to $49 million per coin represents a 57,647% increase, which is highly speculative. Market dynamics, such as liquidity constraints or investor sentiment, could lead to a different valuation, potentially lower or higher than our calculation.

Comparative Analysis

Currently, each share corresponds to approximately 0.001917 BTC (499,096 ÷ 260,290,000), valued at $163 per share at $85,000 per BTC, aligning with our earlier breakdown. In the hypothetical, each share would correspond to 1,000,000 ÷ 260,290,000 ≈ 0.003841 BTC, valued at $188,235.29 per share at $49 million per BTC, reinforcing our calculation’s consistency.

Table: Summary of Key Figures

ItemCurrent ValueHypothetical Value
Bitcoin Holdings (BTC)499,0961,000,000
Bitcoin Price (USD)~$85,000$49,000,000
Total Bitcoin Value (USD)~$42.423 billion$49 trillion
Shares Outstanding260,290,000260,290,000 (assumed constant)
Value per Share from Bitcoin (USD)~$163~$188,235
Value from Other Operations (USD per share)~$97.59~$97.59 (assumed constant)
Total Share Price (USD)$260.59~$188,333

This table highlights the dramatic shift in valuation driven by the hypothetical Bitcoin price and increased holdings, with other operations contributing minimally at such scales.

Unexpected Detail: Market Implications

An unexpected aspect is the potential market reaction to MSTR holding $49 trillion in Bitcoin, far exceeding global economic metrics like GDP. This could lead to regulatory scrutiny, liquidity issues, or a revaluation of MSTR’s stock, possibly not aligning with our linear calculation. Investors might perceive such a valuation as unsustainable, affecting share price differently.

Conclusion

Based on the analysis, if Bitcoin reaches $49 million per coin and MSTR owns a million bitcoins, each share could be worth approximately $188,333, factoring in both Bitcoin holdings and the value of other operations. However, market dynamics and the unprecedented nature of this scenario suggest actual outcomes could vary significantly.

Key Citations

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