Key Points
- It seems likely that MSTR has outperformed Bitcoin year-to-date, with research suggesting a 16% increase for MSTR compared to a 10% decrease for Bitcoin.
- The evidence leans toward Bitcoin having a stronger long-term performance over the past few years, particularly from August 2020 to March 2025.
Current Performance Overview
MSTR, or MicroStrategy, is a company heavily invested in Bitcoin, and its stock price has shown significant volatility influenced by Bitcoin’s market trends. Year-to-date, from January 1, 2025, to March 4, 2025, MSTR’s stock price appears to have increased by about 16%, rising from an estimated $250 to $290. In contrast, Bitcoin’s price seems to have decreased by around 10%, dropping from an estimated $95,000 to $85,452. This suggests MSTR has performed better recently.
Long-Term Performance Comparison
Over a longer period, such as from August 2020 to March 2025, Bitcoin has shown a remarkable increase of approximately 631.5%, growing from $11,680 to $85,452. Meanwhile, MSTR’s stock price increased by about 93.3%, from an estimated $150 to $290. This indicates Bitcoin has had a stronger long-term performance, likely due to its broader market adoption and volatility.
Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Bitcoin vs. MSTR Performance
This analysis compares the performance of Bitcoin, a leading cryptocurrency, and MicroStrategy (MSTR), a company known for its significant Bitcoin holdings, over various time frames, focusing on year-to-date and longer-term trends as of March 4, 2025. The comparison aims to provide a comprehensive understanding for investors and analysts, considering both short-term fluctuations and long-term growth patterns.
Methodology and Data Sources
The performance comparison relies on historical price data and market capitalization figures sourced from reputable financial platforms, including CoinMarketCap, Yahoo Finance, and MacroTrends. Prices were estimated for specific dates where exact figures were not available, based on trends and reported ranges from these sources.
Year-to-Date Performance (January 1, 2025, to March 4, 2025)
Year-to-date performance is a critical metric for assessing recent market trends. For Bitcoin, the estimated price on January 1, 2025, was around $95,000, based on reports indicating prices above $100,000 in December 2024 and a subsequent drop to around $85,452 by March 4, 2025. This represents a decrease of approximately 10%, calculated as:
[
\text{Percentage Change} = \frac{\text{Current Price} – \text{Initial Price}}{\text{Initial Price}} \times 100 = \frac{85,452 – 95,000}{95,000} \times 100 \approx -9.9\%
]
For MSTR, the stock price on January 1, 2025, was estimated at $250, considering historical data showing prices around $200 to $250 in early 2025, with a current price of $290 on March 4, 2025. This indicates an increase of about 16%, calculated as:
[
\text{Percentage Change} = \frac{290 – 250}{250} \times 100 = 16\%
]
Thus, MSTR appears to have outperformed Bitcoin year-to-date, likely due to market sentiment favoring stocks with significant Bitcoin exposure during this period, despite Bitcoin’s price decline.
Long-Term Performance (August 2020 to March 2025)
To assess longer-term performance, we examined the period from August 2020, when MicroStrategy began heavily investing in Bitcoin, to March 2025. Bitcoin’s price in August 2020 was reported at $11,680.82, and by March 4, 2025, it reached $85,452, resulting in a growth of:
[
\text{Percentage Change} = \frac{85,452 – 11,680.82}{11,680.82} \times 100 \approx 631.5\%
]
For MSTR, the stock price in August 2020 was estimated at $150, based on historical data showing prices in that range, and by March 4, 2025, it was $290, yielding a growth of:
[
\text{Percentage Change} = \frac{290 – 150}{150} \times 100 \approx 93.3\%
]
Over this 4.5-year period, Bitcoin significantly outperformed MSTR, with a 631.5% increase compared to MSTR’s 93.3%. This disparity may reflect Bitcoin’s broader market adoption and volatility, while MSTR’s performance is also influenced by its enterprise software business, which may not scale as rapidly as cryptocurrency prices.
One-Year Performance (March 2024 to March 2025)
For a one-year comparison, Bitcoin’s price in March 2024 was approximately $73,000, based on reports of reaching new highs above $73,000, and by March 2025, it was $85,452, indicating an increase of:
[
\text{Percentage Change} = \frac{85,452 – 73,000}{73,000} \times 100 \approx 17\%
]
For MSTR, the stock price in March 2024 was around $400, based on reports of volatility and prices climbing to $500 later in the year, but dropping to $290 by March 2025, representing a decrease of:
[
\text{Percentage Change} = \frac{290 – 400}{400} \times 100 \approx -27.5\%
]
Over this one-year period, Bitcoin outperformed MSTR, with a 17% increase compared to a 27.5% decrease, highlighting the impact of Bitcoin’s market recovery and MSTR’s stock volatility.
Market Context and Influencing Factors
Bitcoin’s performance is driven by factors such as institutional adoption, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic trends, with significant events like the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 contributing to price surges. MSTR’s performance is closely tied to its Bitcoin holdings, currently at 226,331 BTC valued at approximately $19.32 billion, but also influenced by its enterprise analytics business. The market capitalization of MSTR, around $69.24 billion with 238.54 million shares outstanding, suggests a premium valuation beyond its Bitcoin assets, possibly reflecting investor confidence in its strategy.
Comparative Analysis Table
The following table summarizes the performance metrics for both assets over different periods:
| Period | Bitcoin Performance (%) | MSTR Performance (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Year-to-Date (YTD) | -9.9 | +16 |
| August 2020 to March 2025 | +631.5 | +93.3 |
| March 2024 to March 2025 | +17 | -27.5 |
This table illustrates the varying performance across time frames, with MSTR showing better YTD performance, while Bitcoin dominates in longer-term and one-year metrics.
Conclusion and Implications
The analysis suggests that MSTR has outperformed Bitcoin year-to-date, with a 16% increase compared to Bitcoin’s 10% decrease, likely due to market dynamics favoring stocks with Bitcoin exposure in early 2025. However, over longer periods, such as from August 2020 to March 2025, Bitcoin’s 631.5% growth significantly outpaces MSTR’s 93.3%, reflecting its stronger long-term trend. Investors should consider these time frames when evaluating performance, as short-term gains for MSTR contrast with Bitcoin’s historical dominance. This dual perspective is crucial for understanding market trends and making informed investment decisions.