Generating bitcoin yield
.
Bitcoin is the risk free return for bitcoin maximalist ***
Take risk or not? Microstrategy ,,, risk –>
Jesse
.
True passion?
You go to sleep. Wake up thinking about it —
Just type in your own assumptions
.
6-8% –> risk premium, 4-5% Disney, 20% risk premium
40% ARR for next 21 years?
Capital free?
.
Just a distraction — 29% ARR risk free over 21 years ***
50,000 publicly traded companies are distractions
Only thing Better than Bitcoin … is more Bitcoin! ***
Your own personal idea or concept
14,700 bitcoin, 4 years ago
.
Buy an ETF Bitcoin, take counter party risk to fidelity or blackrock
.
No no no no no.
Counterparty risk to entrepreneurial custodian a year, fail every 3 years
Rationally thinking, headache
.
55% ARR,
Levered 20:1 bad.
Counter Party
.
Don’t hold me to any amount forever
Apple clears through Chase
There’s risk ,,, its interesting
MSTY
Unhedged volatility
.
20% principal per year. Leakage.
Back test it
Risk factors
.
226% yield on MSTR?
Bored?
.
I want to generate yield on Bitcoin
.
No tax bill?
50 vol . 50 volatility. 50% ARR –> 20 ARR. 20 vol.
High voltage power, in your electric razor.
Transformer ,,, high voltage to low voltage
.
Lever up, MSTR, higher vol, higher performance ***
Higher volatility, higher performance
Buy the calls, 10x
.
1.25-1.3 to 1
8:1
MSTX
Andy
.
500M in capital, fees, 129 basis points
10M in fees, scale. One person with Bloomberg trading a day
Appetite
Options market, 22B open interest
11.5B is short, puts.
10.8 is long.
172 days
.
Short bitcoin with leverage?
Short MSTR?
Buy the put.
Go long ,,,
.
Normal person
Buy Bitcoin hold Bitcoin forever and turn off TV
Professional, particular entity or portfolio , money manager
Fixed income? Generate yield
.
Not wise *
I don’t recommend anything
Underpriced vs risk adjusted return?
29% ARR
borrow money long term at 8%… loan it to bitcoin network at 29%, duration debt instrument 8-12,
15-30 . Mortgage low interest rate
Create company raise equity or debt to buy Bitcoin, intelligent
Borrow money at 1%, more than 4 year duration
.
Levered long –>
Forced liquidated, stupid, 10x leverage
.
If you have capital, hold more than 4 years, buy Bitcoin and forget it.
4 years, consider it.
1 year loan you can get wiped out
.
8 year on debt feels safe **
Don’t induce anxiety !
You just don’t know how you will fail
2B at 8% interest, simple idea.
Less at risk free cost to capital.
.
Interesting,,, or boring humans?
.
I’m bane!
I’m not diversified –>
.
Digital Energy ***
Digital Intelligence
Digital Photography***