Bayes, bayes thinking; the general idea is that you always adjust and make decisions based on the most immediate information that you have right now. For example, in regards to health. Sometime you might want to be in the hot sauna, on the days that it is dark murky and unpleasant, and other days you might just want to be out in the sun, sunbathing if the sun is good!
Always make decisions and decide based on the most immediate information that you have available right now!