{"id":641468,"date":"2024-10-16T08:38:17","date_gmt":"2024-10-16T12:38:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/?p=641468"},"modified":"2024-10-16T11:26:14","modified_gmt":"2024-10-16T15:26:14","slug":"dont-die-slowly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/2024\/10\/16\/dont-die-slowly\/","title":{"rendered":"Don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t Die Slowly!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00e2\u20ac\u201d> investors who just do these diversified VOO, vanguard 500, typical S&amp;P 500\u00e2\u20ac\u201c> they\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re just seeking to die a slow death? Or these \u00e2\u20ac\u0153diversified\u00e2\u20ac\u009d funds \u00e2\u20ac\u201d> they seek equilibrium, but the 51% rule\u00e2\u20ac\u00a6 slow death <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Invisible buildings and property<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bitcoin is global capital<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Deepest capital markets in the world<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">276, 276, 276<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Superior yield<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Better return<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">0:00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Howard Marks famously says, volatility is<br>not risk. Volatility is just vitality. It&#8217;s just the motion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Volatility is just the motion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The best player on the court is the most volatile, LeBron James<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The best person is the most volatile?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bitcoin has the most energy<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Visualize M16<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Move fast with a lot of energy, take risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Logic<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">3-4x over SP500<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2x over magnificent 7<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">over the past 4 years Bitcoin (49%<br>p.a.) is outperforming the S&amp;P (14% p.a.) by about a factor of 3 to 4. It is doubling the performance of the Magnificent 7 (27%<br>p.a.). It&#8217;s 5x real estate v(10% p.a.), 7x gold (7% p.a.), and it&#8217;s utterly crushing bonds (-5% p.a.), which are just a disaster.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">49% PA, S&amp;P is 14 PA<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">50-58% growth<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dominance<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Go with the most dominant, NOT the underdog!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bitcoin is the bank which is too big to fail in cyberspace ***<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ibit, Larry fink, black rock<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Backed by power *<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">700 exahash of computer power<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">18 gigawats<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">18 full on nuclear reactors<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">$800B Power for bank of Bitcoin<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bitcoin Banker<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second isn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t even 1% thus number,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">99% into Bitcoin<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">most important point is MicroStrategy invested $250mn in Bitcoin in August 2020. Since then, we&#8217;ve invested $9.9bn total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">9.9B in total invested<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">420M pro crypto people<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Google of money<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Roll eyes is good<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When I talk about investment thesis, what I say is, you<br>want to get rich, find something everybody needs, nobody can stop and nobody understands. If 9 out of 10 people disagree with<br>you, roll their eyes, or don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t get what I just said, that means that you&#8217;ve got a 10x or more gain in front of you<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">10x more gain in front of you<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you look at the performance of<br>Amazon now, it is the weakest of the Magnificent 7 investments, because everybody understood Amazon was a good idea in the<br>summer of 2020. That\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s why it\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s an awful investment idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Superior yield ***<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Awful investments now, when everyone thinks it is a good idea, <em>today<\/em> &#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why I Love Investing<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It has to deal with real life, the real world, real risk &amp; return and joy?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The birth of a new assset class?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">implementation of mandatory fair value accounting in January 2025 is going to be another<br>big deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Crystal ball, look into the future<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fair value accounting<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Year zero<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2025&#8211;&gt; the start, beginning of digital gold rush<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bitcoin, ChatGPT, Tesla cars &#8211;&gt; the only things of the future which were promised which actually pulled through.?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You&#8217;ve got 10 years to get Bitcoin before there\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s no Bitcoin for you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Only 10 years left! ***<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2035<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Once you get to January 1, 2035, you\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve<br>only got 1% of Bitcoin trickling out over 106 years. That\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s less than MicroStrategy already owns. That \u00e2\u20ac\u0153point99\u00e2\u20ac\u009d, as we call it, is<br>the point of reflexive supply shock. 99% of the Bitcoin will have been mined and sold into the open market by January 2, 2035.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Insider info?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.99&#8211;106 years from now only less than 1% of Bitcoin will trickle out?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Basic people boring!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Supply becomes fixed \u00e2\u20ac\u00a6 deflationary asset! ***<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122m excited to be alive 10 years from now<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bitcoin is hope, makes sense!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">15th century and electricity and philosophy<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Capital appreciation<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You&#8217;re going to capitalize your AI with Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AI &amp; Bitcoin &#8211;&gt; the only two good bets?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The New Digital Monopolies: Bitcoin &amp; AI<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My forecast<br>is the base case: Bitcoin appreciates from 0.1% of the assets in the world to 7%, it grows 29% ARR, we get $13 mn \/Bitcoin by<br>the year 2045. A bear case is $3mn; a bull case is $49mn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">$49M a Bitcoin by 2045,,, 20 years from now, when Seneca is 23\u00e2\u20ac\u00a6<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Or $3m, or $13M<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">7% of world assets<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Modest projections?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Strategic, tactical<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bitcoin Tactics<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The tactics of Bitcoin<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t die slowly!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">take a risk or die quickly or die slowly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00e2\u20ac\u201d> investors who just do these diversified VOO, vanguard 500, typical S&amp;P 500\u00e2\u20ac\u201c> they\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re just seeking to die a slow death? Or these \u00e2\u20ac\u0153diversified\u00e2\u20ac\u009d funds \u00e2\u20ac\u201d> they seek equilibrium, but the 51% rule\u00e2\u20ac\u00a6 slow \u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_ek_photo_artist_note":"","_ek_photo_thesis":"","_ek_photo_camera":"","_ek_photo_place":"","_ek_photo_human_moment":"","_ek_photo_sequence":"","_ek_photo_question":"","_ek_photo_canonical_claim":"","_ek_photo_ai_summary":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-641468","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-posts"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/641468","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=641468"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/641468\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":641472,"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/641468\/revisions\/641472"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=641468"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=641468"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=641468"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}