{"id":602000,"date":"2024-02-28T18:36:42","date_gmt":"2024-02-28T23:36:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/2024\/02\/28\/thinking-long-term\/"},"modified":"2024-02-28T18:49:06","modified_gmt":"2024-02-28T23:49:06","slug":"thinking-long-term","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/2024\/02\/28\/thinking-long-term\/","title":{"rendered":"Thinking Long Term"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Large language models as discoveries <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Large language models are much more like discoveries. We\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re constantly getting surprised by their capabilities. They\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re not really engineered objects.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brains are plastic  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeff Bezos<a href=\"https:\/\/youtube.com\/watch?v=DcWqzZ3I2cY&amp;t=6165\">(01:42:45)<\/a>&nbsp;A hundred percent and you can feel your brain. Brains are plastic and you can feel your brain getting reprogrammed. I remember the first time this happened to me was when Tetris who\u00e2\u20ac\u2122d first came on the scene. Anybody who\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s been a game player has this experience where you close your eyes to lay down to go to sleep and you see all the little blocks moving and you\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re kind of rotating them in your mind and you can just tell as you walk around the world that you have rewired your brain to play Tetris. But that happens with everything. I think we still have yet to see the full repercussions of this, I fear, but I think one of the things that we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve done online and largely because of social media is we have trained our brains to be really good at processing super short form content.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/youtube.com\/watch?v=DcWqzZ3I2cY&amp;t=6232\">(01:43:52)<\/a>&nbsp;Your podcast flies in the face of this. You do these long format things.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cognitive load<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeff Bezos<a href=\"https:\/\/youtube.com\/watch?v=DcWqzZ3I2cY&amp;t=6017\">(01:40:17)<\/a>&nbsp;Yes. So that particular thing is probably a solution to a number of paper cuts. So if you go back and look at our order pipeline and how people shopped on Amazon before we invented 1-Click shopping, there was more friction. There was a whole series of paper cuts and that invention eliminated a bunch of paper cuts. And I think you\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re absolutely right by the way, that when you come up with something like 1-Click shopping, again, this is so ingrained in people now, I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122m impressed that you even notice it. Most people-<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bezos is 59\u00e2\u20ac\u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You will be 59 years old in 23 years.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/lexfridman.com\/jeff-bezos-transcript\/#chapter8_productivity\">Lex Fridman<\/a> is the GOAT<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">On Death<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeff Bezos<a href=\"https:\/\/youtube.com\/watch?v=DcWqzZ3I2cY&amp;t=7772\">(02:09:32)<\/a>&nbsp;No. I used to be afraid of death. I did. I remember as a young person being very scared of mortality, didn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t want to think about it, and so on. And as I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve gotten older, I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122m 59 now, as I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve gotten older, somehow that fear has sort of gone away. I would like to stay alive for as long as possible, but I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122m really more focused on health span. I want to be healthy. I want that square wave. I want to be healthy, healthy, healthy, and then gone. I don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t want the long decay. And I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122m curious. I want to see how things turn out. I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122d like to be here. I love my family and my close friends, and I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122m curious about them, and I want to see. So I have a lot of reasons to stay around, but mortality doesn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t have that effect on me that it did maybe when I was in my twenties.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bezos and Fridman\u00e2\u20ac\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/youtube.com\/watch?v=DcWqzZ3I2cY&amp;t=7676\">(02:07:56)<\/a>&nbsp;We need to start training ourselves to think longer term. Long-term thinking is a giant lever. You can literally solve problems if you think long-term, that are impossible to solve if you think short-term. And we aren\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t really good at thinking long-term. Five years is a tough timeframe for most institutions to think past. And we probably need to stretch that to 10 years and 15 years and 20 years and 25 years, and we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122d do a better job for our children or our grandchildren if we could stretch those thinking horizons. And so the clock, in a way, it\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s an art project, it\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s a symbol. And if it ever has any power to influence people to think longer term, that won\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t happen for hundreds of years, but we are going to build it now and let it accrue the patina of age.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lex Fridman<a href=\"https:\/\/youtube.com\/watch?v=DcWqzZ3I2cY&amp;t=7732\">(02:08:52)<\/a>&nbsp;Do you think humans will be here when the clock runs out here on earth?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeff Bezos<a href=\"https:\/\/youtube.com\/watch?v=DcWqzZ3I2cY&amp;t=7736\">(02:08:56)<\/a>&nbsp;I think so. But the United States won\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t exist. Whole civilizations rise and fall. 10,000 years is so long. No nation state has ever survived for anywhere close to 10,000 years.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Large language models as discoveries Large language models are much more like discoveries. We\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re constantly getting surprised by their capabilities. They\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re not really engineered objects. Brains are plastic Jeff Bezos(01:42:45)&nbsp;A hundred percent and you \u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_ek_photo_artist_note":"","_ek_photo_thesis":"","_ek_photo_camera":"","_ek_photo_place":"","_ek_photo_human_moment":"","_ek_photo_sequence":"","_ek_photo_question":"","_ek_photo_canonical_claim":"","_ek_photo_ai_summary":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-602000","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-posts"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/602000","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=602000"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/602000\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":602007,"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/602000\/revisions\/602007"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=602000"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=602000"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/erickimphotography.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=602000"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}